Respond to Post 7
Pick someone from post 7 to respond to. You can agree or disagree with them but your evidence must be not older than 1/21. You are seeing if their prediction is still holding. Things can change quickly at this point in the presidential campaign.
This is due by Wednesday 1/27.
It is important the folks post ON TIME because anyone can say who will win the Iowa Caucus after it's already occurred. Only experts can make accurate and evidence based predictions. ;)
posted by Ms. Aby @ 11:53 AM
15 Comments:
As the first campaigns of the 2016 presidential bid charge towards the first primaries and caucuses, we are beginning to see patterns and predictions for how the different races will turn out. I agree with everyone that Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are set to win New Hampshire: they are many points ahead in the polls and their audiences are similar to their views (1). Sanders also has a home field advantage, since he is from Vermont, and people who know him in that area love him (2).
The Iowa Caucuses are harder to pinpoint an exact winner. I agree with Zach that Clinton will ultimately win the caucuses-- she is better known there, she has been pitching mroe of her efforts in that area, and she has the support of Senator Tim Kaine to guide her (3). However, I disagree with Zach that Ted Cruz will nab the Republican nomination in Iowa. On the day I posted my blog, I would have said that Ted Cruz was the most likely candidate, but the odds are stacked too high against him. Trump had leading poll averages in Iowa on January 21st: Trump at around 31% and Cruz at about 26% (1). Cruz has a big issue of likeability as well, and that will probably serve as his downfall. The Governor of Iowa shamed Cruz and told his citizens that voting for Cruz was a mistake (4). Now that Trump has the support of Sarah Palin, his numbers will also rise. Zach said that Trump’s spiteful comments will catch up to him in the end, and indeed Trump has said a ton of just awful things and turned away many people. However, Trump is just an unstoppable political machine, and not even Cruz can counter that.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster (1)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/new-hampshire-cnn-wmur-poll-democrats/ (2)
http://patch.com/virginia/oldtownalexandria/sen-kaine-campaign-hillary-clinton-iowa (3)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/ted-cruz-iowa-terry-branstad/ (4)
I definitely agree with Tera that Donald Trump will win both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary. Trump’s main competition in Iowa is Ted Cruz, who is really counting on the votes of the Evangelical Christians in the state to get him to victory (1). Contrary to Cruz’s firm belief, I don’t think that his Evangelical Christian base will help him win the Iowa Caucus; an NBC poll found that among Evangelical voters, 37% support Trump and only 20% support Cruz (1). Donald Trump is also still poised to win New Hampshire, looking at recent polling. The two most recent polls on Real Clear Politics' polling data for New Hampshire show that in the past few days, Trump has been leading in the state by 14 to 19 points (2).
(1) http://www.nationalreview.com/article/430346/ted-cruz-electoral-strategy-evangelical-voters-trump
(2) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
Last week, Leela predicted that Hillary Clinton would win both the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. In the Republican race, Leela predicted that Ted Cruz will win the Iowa caucus and that Donald Trump will win the New Hampshire primary. It looks like part of Leela’s first prediction will hold true, according to recent FiveThirtyEight data. As of January 26th, Hillary Clinton still holds a slim lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa (1). However, according to various polls on the HuffPost website, Bernie Sanders is now leading Hillary Clinton by over ten percent in new Hampshire (2).
In the Republican race, Leela’s prediction is no longer holding for Iowa. Donald Trump is currently leading Ted Cruz in the caucus state, but the Texan senator is still within striking distance (1). In New Hampshire, Leela’s prediction was spot on, with Trump currently polling at around 30 percent, and the next closest candidates (namely Kasich and Cruz), polling at about 12 percent (3).
(1) http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-can-really-change-before-iowa-votes/
(2) http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-primary
(3) http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-republican-primary
Zach said, in the previous blog post, that he predicts that Hillary will win the Iowa Caucus, beating out Bernie Sanders. I am in agreement with this statement. While Bernie Sanders has a good chance of taking the lead away from frontrunner Clinton, I do not see it necessarily happening. Zach said, last week, that Hillary was in the lead by quite a lot, leading 52% compared to Bernie Sanders’ 37%. New polls show the two candidates at nearly a tie, with Bernie Sanders up by 1%, now at 47% compared to Hillary’s 46% (1). I think that we also have to take into account the amount of time that Clinton has held the lead in Iowa. She has been the leader of the Democratic side for months now, and it is hard to imagine that she could lose to Sanders, who does not have nearly the same number of supporters or volunteers in this state (2). While I am not saying that Clinton automatically secured the win, I am saying she has a good chance of winning it, which Zach and I agree on.
Second of all, I agree with Zach again, that Ted Cruz will win the Iowa Republican Caucus. I think that it will be a close call, but overall, the Iowans will vote for Cruz more than Trump. Recent polls have closed the gap between Trump and Cruz, which was 13 percentage points earlier this month. Now the difference between the two is just five percentage points (3); Trump is polling at 32%, and Cruz has 27% of votes (3). Additionally, Cruz’s numbers since the past polls have increased, and he has made it a close race. I think that as time goes on, people will support Cruz more and more. Reporters have been debating this caucus for months now, running numbers and asking voters, but have not picked a clear answer yet. Overall, many of the reporters say that the negative association which comes along with Trump will deter caucus-goers from voting Trump (2). That’s why, in agreement with Zach, I think Cruz will win the Iowa caucus.
1- http://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-bernie-sanders-win-iowa/
2-https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/
3- http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/24/how-ted-cruz-can-win-iowa/
As the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary get closer, the predictions for who will win what is down to only two candidates in both the Republican and Democratic parties. Last week, Samantha predicted that Trump will win in both Iowa and New Hampshire. I agree with her that Trump will most likely win in both states, even if Cruz comes close. Trump has been the frontrunner of the Republican candidates for so long, and even though Cruz has improved in the polls, he does not have enough support in Iowa to win the caucus. In the past week, polls have shown that Trump is gaining more favorability and Cruz is falling behind, with Trump now polling at 33 percent and Cruz at 27.5 percent in Iowa (1). Samantha also said that Sanders will most likely win in both states over Clinton due to the most recent debate and doubts that many voters have regarding the former Secretary of State. Sanders has a clear lead in New Hampshire, but I believe that it could go either way in Iowa (2). Poll numbers can never be completely trustworthy, especially when both candidates are polling within a percent of each other (3).
http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/poll-tracker-2016/ (1)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-can-really-change-before-iowa-votes/ (2)
http://www.ibtimes.com/who-will-win-iowa-caucuses-does-it-matter-problem-polls-hawkeye-state-voters-2279115 (3)
In his last post, Charlie argued that “Clinton will win Iowa, while Sanders will win New Hampshire.” I agree with this, and believe that this is still a very likely outcome. As of the most recent polls, Clinton is barely leading in Iowa, at 46 points, while Sanders is at 45.4 (3). It’s going to be a close call, but I think that Clinton will pull out ahead and win this one. However, I do not agree with Charlie when he says that Trump will “win both Iowa and New Hampshire.” Even though Trump is still leading in the polls at 33.2 points, Cruz is only mere points behind at 27.5 points (2). Though most people go strictly by the numbers, I want to look more at who the potential voters are for these candidates. A large amount of Donald Trump supporters are “those whose attendance is uncertain” for the Iowa caucus (1). A lot of Trump supporters claim support when it’s easy and convenient for them, but having to physically go to a caucus for potentially multiple hours will diminish the number of Trump supporters that go. This is why I believe that Ted Cruz will win the Iowa caucus.
Sources:
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-01-26/donald-trumps-supporters-must-show-up-for-him-to-win-the-iowa-caucus (1)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html (2)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html (3)
While I agree with Scott that Donald Trump will win the New Hampshire primary and Hillary Clinton will win the Iowa caucus, I disagree that Ted Cruz will win Iowa’s caucus. Recently, Trump has pulled ahead of Cruz in Iowa (1). It has helped tremendously that former Alaska governor Sarah Palin has endorsed Trump, giving him a “potential boon to Trump among the evangelical vote” (1). Evangelical Christians have loved Cruz and have supported him greatly, but with Palin’s endorsement and the current Iowa governor urging voters against Cruz, Trump stands to win the Iowa caucus.
Hillary Clinton does stand to win the Iowa caucus, though two of the four polls sampled show that Bernie Sanders is ahead (2). While Sanders has growing popularity in Iowa, many will flock to Clinton. She still holds a considerable lead in the national polls, polling 52 percent to Sanders’ 38, though voters in the primaries and caucuses are still split (2). However, based on Clinton’s support from women and those over 50, she will be likely to win as the older demographic generally votes more in the primaries and caucus. Though Scott is correct in saying that voters in Iowa will support Clinton, it is not because Sanders is Jewish. Clinton has more appeal to the demographic of voters in Iowa, though if there are a large portion of young voters that turn out at the polls, Sanders may just take Iowa.
Trump will win the New Hampshire primary as Scott predicted. He has a commanding lead, standing at 33 points, nearly 20 points ahead of the other GOP candidates (3). The next closest candidate is Cruz, who is far behind Trump and does not stand to win as there is not a firm evangelical vote in New Hampshire as there is in Iowa. Because of this, it is likely that Trump will win New Hampshire.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/25/politics/iowa-shifts-national-views-stable/index.html (1)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/25/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-poll/ (2)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/new-hampshire-gop-poll-boston-herald/index.html (3)
I agree with Wyatt that Trump will win the Iowa Caucus, he has pulled ahead in the recent polls (3), which I believe is in part because of his debate performances. Also I believe that Palin’s support of Trump does help him appeal to conservative Christian voters. Another thing that I feel appeals to voters in Iowa, is that he is an outsider. Unlike Cruz who labels himself as an outsider, Trump actually is one. Trump also has an edge when it comes to likability as well. Cruz has consistently been alienating his fellow Republicans in the Senate and the House. Part of this has to do with his inability to compromise. This train of alienating his colleagues will likely derail his campaign at the RNC because of the superdelegates. In New Hampshire I also believe that Trump will mop the floor with Cruz. Trump has a immense lead of 20 points over Cruz (1). As far as the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire I believe that Sanders will win New Hampshire (3). Part of this I believe is due to Sanders being a real person. Unlike Clinton he actually lives a somewhat normal life, he doesn’t make millions of dollars a year. He also has been running on the same platform for the past 30 years, unlike Clinton’s platform that changes as regularly as the seasons in Minnesota.
(1)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/early_primary_state_polls.html
(2)http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/01/26/ted-cruz-likability-campaign-presidential/79296522/
(3) http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/clinton-sanders-new-hampshire-iowa-poll/
Now that we are coming closer to the Iowa Caucus, I disagree with Gina that Ted Cruz is going to win. Although he was leading for a while, Trump has recently pulled ahead in Iowa polls. [1] She did mention that Trumps supporters would show up and make it close but now it is looking like they might give Trump the win. [2] Trump has supporters that are very passionate about getting change in the government and I think that they will rally at the caucus to make sure that “America will be made great.” Although I agree with Gina in the hope that Trump loses, I’m not sure at this point if that will actually happen. And now that Trump has the support of Sarah Palin, Trump has gotten some of Cruz’s evangelist supporters to change sides. [3]
[1]http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/25/politics/iowa-shifts-national-views-stable/index.html
[2]http://truthinmedia.com/bernie-sanders-donald-trump-iowa-caucus/
[3]http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/25/politics/iowa-shifts-national-views-stable/index.html
In Emma’s blog post from last week she predicted that that the winner of the Iowa caucus will be Ted Cruz for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats, and I agree with both of her predictions. Although Trump has been gaining momentum recently with Republican Governor Terry Branstad coming out and deferring voters from showing Cruz support, I still think that Cruz has a chance. “Just days ago, fivethirtyeight.com forecast Cruz with a 51 percent chance of winning Iowa, with Trump at just 29 percent” (1). Additionally, in Emma’s blog post she predicted that the New Hampshire primary winner for the Republicans would be Trump and Sanders for the Democrats. Although in my last blogpost I stated that Hillary Clinton would win in both Iowa and New Hampshire, it seems to be pretty clear now that Sanders will win the New Hampshire primary. “On the Democratic side, we show Bernie Sanders winning 58.4% of the votes and beating Hillary Clinton in the state neighboring his home state of Vermont.” (2). I still think that Hillary Clinton will win the Iowa Caucus though.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/24/how-ted-cruz-can-win-iowa/ (1)
https://blogs.bing.com/search/2016/01/26/bing-elections-2016-who-will-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire/ (2)
I would have to agree with Samantha on who she thinks will win both the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucus. For the Republicans, I think that Trump will get the nomination from both Iowa and New Hampshire. Samantha predicted this in her blog post, especially when she talked about Trump’s attack on Cruz’s patriotism. Last week, I thought he would only win New Hampshire, but it seems that he is now polling better in Iowa (1). Trump has about a 7 point lead over Cruz (1).
For the Democratic nominee, I think that Sanders will also get both state’s nominations (2). I think that the people who go out to vote in the primary and caucus are going to be more fanatic or motivated, and Sanders definitely attracts voters like that. As Samantha said in her blog post, overall, Clinton is seen as less trustworthy to the American people. Voters in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary will most likely (as of right now) want to see Sanders as the nominee.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/iowa-poll-trump-takes-caucus-lead/article/2000770 (1)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/new-hampshire-gop-poll-boston-herald/index.html (2)
I can see how Scott thinks that Ted Cruz will win the Iowa Caucus because of his appeal to the Christian population that is there. I think it will be a close race and it will be interesting to see how accurate the polls turn out to be. I still think Trump will win, but I think in some ways it will be difficult for people to publicly claim that they support Trump and that some of the people who do support Trump feel more comfortable with their opinion in the anonymity of a poll. I also agree with Scott’s prediction of Clinton winning Iowa, but I don’t really think it has a lot to do with Sander’s being religious. I think the religious appeal is more important to conservatives, while Democratic voters may be more indifferent. Again this race will be very close, infact the polls show that there is almost no discernable difference in who is ahead at this point [1]. I would also agree with Scott in that Trump looks to be ahead because of his support from both conservatives and liberals.
[1]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
Iowa, as the first state that voices its opinion on the presidential field year after year, makes and tanks campaigns even before the first primary. I have to agree with Ana that the Democratic race will ultimately come down to who actually shows up to the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. As a state with such power and the limited accuracy of polls and the burdensome process of going to a caucus, the winners of the Iowa caucus for both parties is up in the air (1). The whole process in Iowa takes hours especially on the Democrats side where if a candidate has less than 15% of the support in an area, their voters must choose a different group. In light of this, I have to agree that it seems more likely that Clinton will win the Iowa caucus given the lack of time most young adults have to spare and data which shows that caucus goers tend to favor her. New Hampshire could swing one way or the other if Clinton does take Iowa, but given the increasing lead Sanders has in the state it seems likely he will win the primary regardless of the result in Iowa (2).
For the Republicans, Trump’s support stemming from the younger generation that searches for genuineness may be his downfall in the caucus on Monday (1). However, criticism of Cruz is coming especially hard from Republicans and earlier today fellow Republican contender, Mike Huckabee released an Adele parody attacking Cruz (3). As Ana mentioned, Cruz was publicly criticized by Iowa’s current governor and Trump recently received an endorsement from Palin who was popular in Iowa during the 2008 election which is swinging momentum in his favor. Not to mention that Trump, according to most experts, is leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire (4). So I disagree that Iowa is close in the Republican field but there are also other factors that polls don’t consider so it will be closer than what is currently predicted between Trump and Cruz. In the end, I agree Ana’s observation that people are too focused on polling data versus actual turnout, but believe that Trump and Sanders will win the upcoming caucus and primary.
http://theweek.com/articles/601463/iowa-caucus-system-completely-absurd--thats-great-news-hillary-clinton-ted-cruz (1)
http://nhpr.org/post/sanders-plans-final-ad-splurge-hold-clinton-new-hampshire (2)
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2016/01/mike-huckabee-made-adele-tribute-video-ad (3)
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/01/26/final-usa-today-gop-power-rankings-trump-cruz-rubio/79311056/ (4)
I agree with Meghan’s predication that Trump and Sanders will win the New Hampshire primaries, they have both been consistently in the lead for months now and their support and poll numbers in the state don’t seem to be dropping, according to a recent poll by Franklin Pierce University, Trump is ahead with 33% while Cruz who is the next runner up is only at 14%. (1) Bernie is holding on strong to his lead as well “Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has opened up an eight-point lead over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton”
As far as Iowa goes, it’s a much closer race but I do also agree with Meghan that Clinton will end up with a slight win, mostly because although the polls show them to be neck in neck, polls don’t necessarily translate to votes and a lot of Sanders supporters are young, which makes me question whether they will all actual show up to vote. It is also important to note that since in Iowa they have an open vote there is a lot that could happen when other candidates supporters have the opportunity to choose between Clinton and Sanders. (2) However I think that (unfortunately) Trump will end up winning Iowa as well, seeing as how he is polling quite a bit over Cruz. (3)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/new-hampshire-gop-poll-boston-herald/index.html
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-01-27/iowa-caucus-polls-could-be-way-way-off
http://www.weeklystandard.com/iowa-poll-trump-takes-caucus-lead/article/2000770
For the Republican party, Leela and I agreed that Cruz will win Iowa and Trump will win New Hampshire. However, she argued that for the Democrats, Clinton will have victories in both states, which I disagree with. I do believe Clinton will take the state of Iowa, but I think Sanders will be the one who ultimately wins in New Hampshire. Leela referenced Clinton’s nationwide lead over Sanders in her argument. However, in 58 of the latest polls for the state in question, Sanders has a lead over Clinton in nearly every one [1]. Generated by a range of possible outcomes, the latest forecast shows “Bernie Sanders has a 74% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary” compared to Hillary Clinton’s 26% chance [1]. Due to these statistics, I still hold a firm belief that Sanders will defeat Clinton in that state.
[1]
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/
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