Post 7 - Due 1/20
It's time to make predictions...
Who will win the Iowa caucus (2/1)?
Who will win the New Hampshire primary (2/9)?
You can answer for either the Democrats but must answer for the Republicans. You can answer for one or both states. You will need a minimum of 3 pieces of evidence for this post. I suggest pollingreport.com, the Des Moines Register and the New Hampshire Union Leader as sources to consult.
I look forward to reading your predictions and seeing who is right. :)
Labels: caucus, presidential campaign, primaries, primary, public opinion
posted by Ms. Aby @ 4:34 PM
20 Comments:
I believe that in Iowa Ted Cruz will win the caucus. He appeals to the Christian population there with his traditional values. He is leading in the Iowa polls at 31% (1). I also believe that Hillary Clinton will win the Iowa caucus because Bernie Sanders in Jewish (2). The Christian population will likely favor a fellow Christian. Although I believe that it will be a close race due to them both polling around 40% (3). If Clinton was more trustworthy I believe that she would have a more significant lead over Sanders. In the New Hampshire primary I believe that Trump will win the Republican nomination. Trump has over 20 points more than his closest competitor (4). This is because he is drawing not just conservatives, but liberal as well. Trump may be a Republican in name, but he is appealing to the opposite party as well. He has the ability to appeal to traditional conservatives, but also people that are frustrated with the current government (5).
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/candidates/2015/12/12/iowa-poll-inside-skinny-each-gop-candidate/77168608/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2015/10/13/bernie-sanders-who-could-get-farther-than-any-jewish-candidate-for-president-has-just-opened-up-about-his-jewishness/
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/01/14/iowa-poll-clinton-slides-leads-sanders-2-points/78738770/
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-republican-primary
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/429978/ted-cruz-donald-trump-gop-nomination-battle-new-hampshire
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As the caucus and primary season begins, it is going to be very interesting to see what everyone thinks is going to happen. Looking at national polling levels, according to the most recent poll done by Monmouth University, Hillary Clinton is leading at 52%, while Bernie Sanders is at 37%. Even though Sanders has been moving up in the polls, I believe that Clinton will still beat him out in the Iowa caucus. At the Democratic debate this past weekend, Clinton went on the offense, and did indeed bring out issues that separated herself from Sanders such as gun-control (2). I think that things like these will continue piling up, and Clinton will ultimately win the Iowa caucus.
As for the Republicans, I think there could be two possible outcomes. Donald Trump is currently polling 13% higher than Ted Cruz, and based on just polling data, one would assume that Trump would win the Iowa caucus (1). However, critics have been saying that although Trump has this seemingly “political teflon” it is bound to “wear off” eventually, meaning that for some reason it seems as though what has derailed candidates in the past, has not done any harm to Trump (3). This including all of the terrible comments that he has made over the last few months and just his terrible image amongst many. Because of this, I truly believe that Ted Cruz will win the Iowa caucus for the Republicans.
Sources:
http://www.pollingreport.com/2016.htm (1)
http://www.unionleader.com/article/20160118/NEWS0605/160119089 (2)
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/01/07/donald-trump-campaign-invulnerable-gaffes/78353584/ (3)
For the Democratic Party I predict that Clinton will win Iowa, while Sanders will win New Hampshire. [1][2]In both states it is really close and hard to tell what will happen, but I don’t even know if it will matter considering the amount of superdelegates that Clinton has. For the Republican Party I predict that Trump will win both Iowa and New Hampshire. [3] Cruz is in close second, but I don’t think he will be able to maintain this recent surge in the polls. Trump seems to be constantly ahead and not stopping anytime soon. Other GOP candidates have large surges in the polls but are only brief. At one point it was Fiorina, then Carson, and right now it is Cruz, but their popularity never lasts.
[1]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/
[2]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
[3]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html
I predict that Ted Cruz will win the Iowa Caucus and that Donald Trump will win the New Hampshire primary. “Donald Trump's advantage nationally is growing, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the New York billionaire now leads Ted Cruz by 13 points.” (1). Furthermore, Donald Trump has had a substantial lead in the polls for five straight months now (2). As for the Democrats I think that Hillary Clinton will win both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary. “Hillary Clinton is leading Bernie Sanders nationwide by a 25-point margin, The former secretary of state received 59% support from Democratic primary voters, while 34% support the Vermont senator” (3).
1-http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/01/14/donald-trump-ted-cruz-marco-rubio-nbc-news-wall-street-journal-poll/78807470/)
2- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ali-a-rizvi/the-real-reason-donald-tr_b_8820192.html
3- http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/17/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-nbc-news-poll/
In the past few months, various polls have shown Donald Trump and Ted Cruz to be neck and neck for the Iowa Republican Caucus (1). Just looking at this past week, Trump has shown an edge against Cruz more often and Real Clear Politics gives Trump an average lead of 1.1 points (1). While Trump might not seem to have a significant advantage I think recent statements by Iowa’s governor, Terry Branstad, might help Trump enough to win in Iowa. Governor Branstad has voiced his disfavor of Ted Cruz and said that “it would be a big mistake for Iowa to support him” and that Iowa “should not support someone who is opposing those things that are critically important to the economic well-being of our state (2).” Cruz’s bad publicity will probably reach some ears in Iowa and convince them he is not right for the state, giving the only other significant candidate, Trump, an advantage.
In regards to polling done in New Hampshire since July, Donald Trump has very consistently been miles ahead of his fellow Republicans (3). For the past two weeks of polling, Real Clear Politics gave Trump an average lead of 17.7 points for the New Hampshire Primary (3). In addition, no one candidate is proving to be strong competition for Donald Trump; the place of next most favorable candidate is actually split between Kasich, Rubio, and Cruz- all averaging around 11-13 points (3). Trump’s perennial popularity and the lack of a prevailing Trump alternative makes me believe that Trump will also win New Hampshire.
(1) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html
(2) http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/19/branstad-says-he-wants-cruz-defeated-iowa/79003590/
(3) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
There are two early states that serve as a jumping off point for the campaign season every year. The caucuses in Iowa and the New Hampshire primaries are often used as a barometer to judge how well the candidates are doing against their respective competitors. I believe that Bernie Sanders is going to win the New Hampshire primaries, with a lead of 60 percent in the polls over Hillary Clinton’s 33 (CNN 1). In the Republican race, I believe that Donald Trump has a good chance to win the primaries, because he is polling at 29 percent, more than 15 percent higher than all of his competitors (HuffPost). This data is according to a poll on the Huffington Post website and may not represent what actually happens on election day.
In the Iowa caucuses, the race between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton is not only closer than in New Hampshire, but is a dead heat, with both candidates currently polling at 45 percent apiece. This is after a December poll showed Clinton at 52 percent and Sanders at 37 (CNN 2). Even though the race is much closer, I believe that Hillary Clinton will squeak by with a victory over Bernie Clinton. In the Republican race, Ted Cruz has a slight lead over Donald Trump (27 percent to 25 percent), and I believe that he will manage a victory in Iowa over the Don.
(CNN 1) http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/new-hampshire-cnn-wmur-poll-democrats/
(HuffPost) http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-republican-primary
(CNN 2) http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/18/politics/2016-election-polls-iowa-caucus/
As the Presidential campaign season approaches, the first of many primaries and caucuses are beginning. I feel like the race for either party nomination is really a toss up. Starting off with Iowa, the Republican caucus will begin, and many people are questioning who will take home the win. According to polls, Ted Cruz has jumped slightly above Donald Trump, taking the lead by just 3 percentage points (1). It is likely that his numbers will continue to grow, giving him the lead in the Iowa caucus, but just barely. I feel that the avid Trump supporters will go to the caucuses showing support, and making it a close win for Cruz. Especially with all the volunteers Cruz has (over 2,500 in Iowa alone) (2), not only in Iowa, but around the country, I feel that Cruz will secure the win in Iowa (I really hope so).
The New Hampshire primary is also pretty much up for grabs between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. I think that, contrary to earlier polls showing Clinton had the lead, that Bernie Sanders will will the New Hampshire Primary. I think that with his growing name recognition and popularity among young people and Democrats alike, he will surge for the win. In polls in December and November, he was still unknown and was nearly 30 percentage points behind Clinton (3). While that seemed to give a clear win to Clinton, it is not necessarily so, as Sanders has risen up after that. He is now polling 50% while Clinton has just 40% (4). Overall, I think that the voters in New Hampshire will choose the candidate who is ahead currently, Bernie Sanders.
1- http://2016iowacaucus.com/cruz-tops-trump-in-most-recent-iowa-poll/
2- http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/poll-ted-cruz-iowa-trump-216166
3- http://observer.com/2015/12/bernie-sanders-will-win-the-new-hampshire-primary/
4- http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/new-hampshire-cnn-wmur-poll-democrats/
For the New Hampshire primary, I believe that Donald Trump will snag the Republican victory. Currently being up around 20% in voter support in the state compared to his next closest competitor on nearly every source, I do not think it is close enough to see an upset [1]. For the same reason, I think Bernie Sanders will sweep the state for the Democratic party. In all but one of the recent polls, Sanders leads Clinton by a significant enough margin that I think will lead to his victory [1].
As for the Iowa caucus, I think that Hillary Clinton will take a slight victory over Bernie Sanders for the Democrats. While their polling data in the state shows a very close race, with Clinton leading by only about 3% [2], Iowa is a very Christian state [3], and due to Sanders being Jewish, I think the people that are unsure about which candidate to choose will, for the most part, vote Hillary Clinton. Regarding the race for the Republican nomination, I think victory in Iowa will go to Ted Cruz. In recent polls for the state, results show that he and Donald Trump are neck and neck. Both being Protestant, religion does not affect the situation as I think it would in the Democratic race. I believe that Cruz will defeat Trump in the Iowa caucus for the Republican party because he is a less radical choice; Trump is overly flamboyant in his ideas, and I think Iowa will see that and vote the other way.
[1] http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
[2]
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016
[3]
http://www.gallup.com/poll/12091/tracking-religious-affiliation-state-state.aspx
For the Iowa caucus, I predict that Donald Trump will win the Republican vote. While Ted Cruz is a strong contender, calls from Iowa’s governor Terry Branstad for Iowa voters to vote against Cruz and Sarah Palin’s endorsement for Trump have had some effect on the polls (2). In addition, Trump is slightly ahead of Cruz in the majority of the polls conducted in Iowa. Though Cruz may have strong support from evangelical christian voters, his policies on ethanol subsidies are not popular among farmers in Iowa (2). For the Democrats, I believe that Hillary Clinton will win, as she is polling marginally higher than Sanders in some polls (1). However, Sanders is giving her a run for her money with his fiery rhetoric and appeal to younger voters (3). It seems more likely that Hillary will earn the support of the moderate vote, thus earning her a slight win in Iowa.
For the New Hampshire primary, I predict that Trump will win the Republican vote. He continues to hold a commanding lead in New Hampshire, polling at close to 20 points higher than his closest competitor (1). For the Democrats, I believe that Bernie Sanders will win. He is polling 27 points higher than Clinton in New Hampshire, and coming from Vermont he has much more of a presence (3). Although she was at one time the favorite for the Democratic nomination, now she might not have an easy race to be the Democratic candidate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/early_primary_state_polls.html (1)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/terry-branstad-ted-cruz-defeat/ (2)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/clinton-sanders-new-hampshire-iowa-poll/ (3)
Nationwide, Trump continues to lead the Republican presidential candidates. Currently in the state of Iowa, he still leads at 27.8 percent, but Cruz is right behind him at 26.7 percent (1). Even though Trump is ahead now, Cruz is most likely to win this caucus. He has been climbing from the bottom of the polls, and is now almost tied with Trump in the state of Iowa. Cruz has gained a lot of support in the state of Iowa due to there being a large population of people being ideologically similar to him (2). In New Hampshire, it is almost definite that Trump will win the primary. He is ahead of all of the other candidates by a margin of almost 20 percent. In the Iowa caucus, Clinton is currently ahead of Sanders by a 2 percent margin, and will most likely win. It will be close, but her numbers have been consistently higher than Sanders throughout the campaign in that state. In the New Hampshire primary though, Sanders has a much better chance of winning. Since December, Sanders has been gaining support exponentially, which has brought him ahead of Clinton. A recent poll in New Hampshire has found that Sanders is at 60 percent and Clinton is at 33 percent (3). He has become increasingly more popular and if this trend continues he will win the primary.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/pages/interactives/poll-tracker-2016/ (1)
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/in-iowa-its-down-to-trump-or-cruz-217947 (2)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/new-hampshire-cnn-wmur-poll-democrats/ (3)
As the Iowa Caucus approaches, pundits and journalists alike are on pins and needles waiting to find out who will win the primaries. Although campaign managers of less popular candidates would like people to believe that anyone could still take it home, I think it has come down to two real candidates for both parties in Iowa, while New Hampshire is a foregone conclusion. In New Hampshire, Trump and Sanders both have over a ten point lead making them almost assuredly the winners (RealClearPolitics). For Iowa, I think Trump has clinched the win away from Cruz with ex-Governor Sarah Palin’s endorsement (CNN). Among Iowans, Palin is seen as a martyr for down to earth politics that the media chewed up and spit out. Trump recognizes that he can’t win by just being mean. Trump can paint himself a victim of media and establishment abuse, just like Palin, and win the sympathies of rural America who wants to see an anti-establishment figure win the election. For the Democrats, Iowa is neck and neck with Clinton only having a 2-point lead (Des Moines Register). Although Sanders inspires a similar message of anti-establishment in the vain of Trump, I think his vague outline and increase in taxes for the middle class will leave him behind Clinton. Although the Democratic race will probably be just as close as it was in 2008, it appears clear that Trump will arise as the Republican nominee for the national election.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/donald-trump-endorsement-sarah-palin/
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/01/14/iowa-poll-clinton-slides-leads-sanders-2-points/78738770/
Iowa:
My prediction is that the Republican winner will be Ted Cruz. Cruz has been on the rise in Iowa more than any other state recently. He is currently neck-and-neck with Donald Trump, which is a feat in and of itself at this point in the race (1). In polls like the Des Moines Register and PPP, he has a lead, even if it’s in the margin of error. Cruz’s live odds of winning Iowa, according to CNN pollers, is about 70% (2). The only thing that may bring Cruz’s support down in Iowa is that the Governor of Iowa is against Cruz for going with a plan for non-renewable energy. He has told Iowans to vote for “literally any candidate but the Texas senator” (3).
I predict that the Democratic winner will be Hillary Clinton. She has mostly kept her lead in Iowa, even though Sanders is rising in his poll standings. She sits at 46% in Iowa, just a little over Sanders’s 42% (1). Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia is also helping Clinton in Iowa (4). Sanders has a shot at Iowa, but Clinton is better prepared in Iowa than in other spots like New Hampshire.
New Hampshire:
According to recent polls, I predict that the Republican Winner will be Donald Trump. Although Cruz has been gaining traction, Trump still leads by a landslide in that state-- 31% to Marco Rubios 12% (1). Trump’s CNN odds show that he has a 78% chance of winning New Hampshire (2). Trump leads in the National Primary standings, and he has a fair number of voters that will stick with him to the end. Also, Trump now has Sarah Palin supporting him. Time will tell if she benefits his campaign or not, but either way, it’s pretty certain that Trump will come through in New Hampshire from where he stands.
My prediction is that the Democratic winner will be Bernie Sanders. Sanders has an average eight-point lead in New Hampshire over Clinton, with a recent poll showing him beating Clinton 60-33% (1). Sander’s odds of winning New Hampshire are currently 92%, according to CNN (2). Sanders is from Vermont, so he has a home field advantage: he knows the people in the area, and they love him. In fact, Sanders’s favorability rating in New Hampshire is 91%, according to a CNN/WMUR poll, with Clinton’s favorability at about 65% (5). New Hampshire will be easy to win for Sanders, but other states like Nevada will be more of a struggle for Sanders.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster (1)
http://www.cnn.com/specials/politics/predict?pivit-widget-contract-id=94124&pivit-widget-id=6650&pivitSrc=specials%2Fpolitics%2Fpredict (2)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/ted-cruz-iowa-terry-branstad/ (3)
http://patch.com/virginia/oldtownalexandria/sen-kaine-campaign-hillary-clinton-iowa (4)
http://www.businessinsider.com/bernie-sanders-favorability-new-hampshire-poll-2016-1 (5)
I think for New Hampshire the results are pretty clear. Trump and Sanders will win their respective primaries. I’m basing this off of the leads that both of them are holding in the state [1]. When it comes to Iowa, it is much murkier. If I was asked a week ago I would have confidently said that Cruz and Clinton would win. But in this last week both have faced shakeups. For Cruz, Palin, who is massively popular among Iowa Republicans, endorsed Donald Trump this past week [2]. In addition, the Republican governor of Iowa told people to not vote for Cruz based on his stance on ethanol [3]. These two factors might be enough to push Trump over the top. For the Democrats, Clinton’s Iowa lead has almost disappeared according to latest polls. However, the net average still shows her with a fairly healthy lead. I think that Sanders main hope in this caucus is the fact that his supporters tend to be much more fanatic than Clinton supporters. I would guess that the turnout rates for each of the candidates’ supporters will decide who wins.
[1]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
[2]http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/20/opinions/stanley-palin-endorses-trump/
[3]http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/terry-branstad-ted-cruz-defeat/
For the Iowa Caucus that is taking place on February 1st, I think that Clinton will take the Democratic nomination. On the Des Moines Register website, there was an article on how Clinton is the most rational choice as she was one of “the best secretaries of the state” (1). She is also polling a little better than Sanders (about 2 percent) (4). For the Republican nomination, I think that Cruz will for sure beat Trump in Iowa. Although Cruz is about 1 percent behind, I am hoping that most people will be smart and rationale in their decision and vote for Cruz (4). It would be very unlikely for Trump to win the nomination in Iowa.
In the New Hampshire Primary, I think that Trump will win due to the fact that he is polling 20 percent better than Cruz as of right now (2). Although Cruz’s support is rising, I do not think it will be enough for him to win the Primary (2). As for the Democratic nominee, Sanders will most likely win (3). He is polling better than Clinton in the New Hampshire polls, about 27 points above. In early December Sanders was only polling about 10 points better, so he has significantly improved (3).
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/readers/caucus/2016/01/20/hillary-clinton-has-staying-power/78760372/ (1)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-republicans-results/index.html (2)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/new-hampshire-cnn-wmur-poll-democrats/ (3)
http://www.redstate.com/2016/01/21/two-new-iowa-caucus-polls-race-clarifies/ (4)
The last few weeks leading up to the first presidential caucus and primary, the race in both parties is much more heated than anyone predicted. With Iowa’s caucus eight days before New Hampshire’s primary, its result is invariably going to affect it and possibly skew it in favor of one candidate or the other in both parties. Trump, who is neck and neck with Cruz in Iowa, will more than likely solidify himself as the voters’ favorite candidate by winning both states. In the most recent debate, Trump attacked Cruz and the image of patriotism that he often likes to embrace by pointing out that Cruz was born in Canada. Cruz managed to dig himself a deeper hole by attacking “New York values” which he received sharp criticism for and were tied back to the fact that he was not born in the US (Altman). Furthermore, in New Hampshire, Trump’s 20 point lead in New Hampshire in a race with 12 Republican candidates shows that only a colossal scandal out of Trump proportions could lose him the state (Bradner). Not to mention his recent endorsement from Sarah Palin and Iowa governor Terry Branstad’s vocal disapproval of Cruz are likely to only increase his lead in the following weeks. Sarah Palin is a mixed blessing of course. Given the majority of the country’s negative opinion of her, Palin will likely lead to Trump’s downfall in the states following New Hampshire.
Regarding the Democratic race, one thing is clear: it will be neck and neck for the first two states. If low voter turn out at primaries wasn’t already a concern for the Clinton campaign, Sanders’ recent poll increase that put him neck and neck with the former Secretary of State certainly does. With the doubt swirling in many voters’ minds about Clinton’s trustworthiness along with the ongoing FBI investigation, Clinton is no longer the clear choice to Americans. Not to mention the clear skew that the DNC appears to show towards Clinton by scheduling a city hall debate in Iowa at the last second (Preston). Sunday’s Democratic debate showed Sanders as the clear winner because he touched on his foreign policy experience, something he rarely talked about at rallies and previous debates. Clinton, despite always having compelling stories about how she personally interacts with the American people and especially those in need, offered nothing new. Clinton praises where this country is heading, a direction most do not believe is the best direction for the nation. In light of all of this, those dissatisfied with the status quo will likely cast their vote for Sanders which is why he will win both Iowa and New Hampshire.
http://time.com/4181973/donald-trump-ted-cruz-iowa/ (Altman)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-trump-leads-cruz-climbs/ (Bradner)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-martin-omalley-town-hall/ (Preston)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/17/winners-and-losers-from-the-4th-democratic-presidential-debate/ (Cilliza)
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This year’s Presidential race has been an interesting this to watch. With the Iowa Caucus coming up everyone is talking about who they think is going to come out on top. Looking at how the state has been polling, I would suspect that Trump will win the Iowa Caucus this year. [1] In the past week Trump has pulled ahead of Cruz in the polls. [3] Although some “experts” are unsure that the people who are answering these pollster calls are the kind of die-hard party people who tend to turn up at the caucuses, [2] He has support from voters who are fed up with the status quo and disappointed with the current political system or cannot find a home in any political party. [4] These people are committed to seeing change and I believe that will bring them to the caucus.
[1]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/#polls-only
[2]http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/nov/17/donald-trump-seen-unlikely-to-win-in-iowa-despite-/?page=all
[3]http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/25/politics/iowa-shifts-national-views-stable/index.html
[4]http://truthinmedia.com/bernie-sanders-donald-trump-iowa-caucus/
http://www.pollingreport.com/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
http://thinkprogress.org/immigration/2015/09/02/3697818/iowans-want-to-deport-everyone/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/21/two-numbers-explain-why-donald-trump-is-winning-new-hampshire/
I believe that in the Iowa caucus, Donald Trump will win. He has clearly been leading the polls in Iowa. Of all news networks to conduct electronic polls on the Iowan polls, only one puts a candidate (Ted Cruz) just two points ahead of Trump (2). However, most of the reports puts him at least five points above any other candidate. Towards the end of December of 2015, Ted Cruz rose in the polls, but Donald Trump overcame those numbers into 2016 (2). Those that attend caucuses tend to find on the extremes of the political spectrums, and Donald Trump appeals to the conservatives who are politically active to participate in polls and caucuses. Though he loses some of the Republican support in Iowa in the evangelical christians, he gains a massive crowd of support in his policy for mass deportation of immigrants (4). One-third of Iowa’s economy is on the basis of agriculture, a category of industry in which immigrants tend to find work. Thus Iowans are fond of immigrants being deported in order to preserve Iowan jobs.I think it is even more predictable that Donald Trump will win the New Hampshire primary. The online polls put him between seven and twenty points ahead of any other candidate (3). The reasoning for the New Hampshire support for Donald Trump is his immigration policy, even though he was predicted to falter based on his loose tax policies compared to other GOP candidates (5). Though one-half of the New Hampshire GOP indicates taxes are a major issue for presidency, three-quarters indicate that immigration is crucial (5).
For the Republicans in the Iowa caucus it remains pretty close between Trump and Cruz, while the polls aren’t too predictable, recently the governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, encouraged the citizens to vote against Cruz. (1) As well as Trump bringing in Sarah Palin to endorse him in Iowa where she is quite popular. Despite these recent advantages for Trump, I think that Cruz could still take the lead considering “A third of Republican caucus-goers say they may change their mind (33 percent). Even one in four Trump supporters says they may ultimately go with another candidate (25 percent).” (2) As far as New Hampshire goes, Trump seems to be much more clearly the leader making me believe he will inevitably win the New Hampshire primary. A poll by the Boston Herald showed that Trump lead the Republicans by 19% and within the state, more than half of the Republicans believe Trump will win the nomination. (3)
As for the Democrats, Clinton and Bernie seem to be heading for a neck to neck race. While a few months back, I wouldn’t have realistically thought that Sanders would beat out Clinton, his rising poll numbers has made me believe the possibility is there. Sanders “is leading Clinton by more than 2-to-1 among people under 45, according a Des Moines Register poll, and by nearly 20 percentage points among people who plan to attend their first caucuses.” (4) However most of that support comes from young American college students, and since Iowa is a caucus and not a primary that doesn't help Sanders very much because the majority of his supporters are concentrated in few areas, which makes me believe that Clinton will end up winning the Iowa caucus. As far as the New Hampshire primaries, Sanders was clearly leading in over seven major polls I checked (5), which makes me pretty confident he will win in New Hampshire.
1. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/ted-cruz-terry-branstad-iowa-218172
2.http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/01/24/fox-news-poll-trump-gains-in-iowa-still-dominates-in-new-hampshire.html
3. http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2016/01/25/FPU-BH-Jan20-24-Rep.pdf
4.http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/how-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa-n503451
5.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls
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