Blog #1 for Tri 2
On January 3rd the primary/caucus season officially begins with the Iowa Caucus and we will see whose hard work will be paying off and winning big. This is the earliest we have ever had the primary/caucus season start and it'll be interesting to see how it affects the Republican candidates.
Your question is: Who will win the Iowa caucus and will he/she then go on to win the nomination? Use evidence to support your prediction.
Due Friday 12/16 BEFORE the school day starts. You will be drawing a classmate to respond to for your 1/6 post which will be AFTER we know the results. It'll be fun to see who is right & wrong on their predictions! Good luck.
Labels: caucus, presidential campaign, primary
posted by Ms. Aby @ 7:18 AM
31 Comments:
There is no doubt in my mind that Rick Santorum will win the Iowa Caucus. The most important thing for candidates as the first caucus approaches is their strategy within that state; national numbers do not guarantee any sort of victory. Rick Santorum has the most concrete plan for winning voters in Iowa (he still has weeks!), and his recent backing by Iowa’s Secretary of State will be a key cue to voters as they head into January 3rd.
The outcome of the 2008 Iowa Caucus illustrates two key concepts: money does not matter, and timing is key. Huckabee was able to defeat Romney by gaining support at a crucial moment in the campaign (1), and Santorum is positioned to pull off the same maneuver (considering his poll numbers are increasing). Huckabee also lacked the financing of the Romney campaign in 2008, but this did not prevent his victory. Santorum references the fact that he was able to do well in the Iowa Straw Poll even though he spent $100,000 compared to the $2 million spent by the top contenders. In the 2008 caucus, Romney threw money at Iowa and still lost, and yet his strategy for 2012 remains unchanged. Rick Santorum is poised to win the Iowa Caucus simply because of timing. Because Santorum is not seen as a major threat, this has forced him to campaign much harder in Iowa than his opponents. Huckabee is often cited as winning in 2008 simply for putting in more campaign effort than the other candidates. Romney and Gingrich have actually spent the least amount of time campaigning within Iowa, which could give Santorum a leg up (2). Santorum is going with a coverage strategy; he has already visited all 99 counties within Iowa, and now he is starting to revisit each county (3). Historically, Iowa voters have responded strongly to meeting face-to-face with the candidates, and Romney and Gingrich are lacking severely in this aspect of their campaigns. Personally appealing to voters will do more for Santorum than having high national poll numbers. Huckabee won on these principles, and Santorum will too.
Iowa’s Secretary of State recently announced his backing of Rick Santorum. This is the crucial tipping point that Santorum will use to win in Iowa, as the announcement will serve as a signal to voters (4). In 2008, Secretary of State Matt Schultz chose to back Romney, and the changeover to Santorum will greatly impact the likelihood of Santorum’s victory (this backing could have voters start to see Rick Santorum as a serious contender).
The profile of Iowa voters will also play a significant role in determining the winner. Evangelical Christians hold a large stake in the voting pool within Iowa, and their opinions of the candidates will be able to sway the caucus outcome. 60% of Iowa caucus voters identify themselves as being Evangelical Christians (5), and many people view this statistic as the reason why Huckabee was able to defeat Romney and McCain in 2008 (5). These 60% pose a threat to both Gingrich and Romney: Iowa Evangelicals are hesitant to trust Gingrich due to his past (his three marriages and affair)(6), and many are still fearful over Romney’s Mormon affiliation (6). Rick Santorum sits pretty with these voters, as he is the candidate who mentions family values whenever the opportunity arises. With the top contenders at a disadvantage to Iowa voters, many look for that candidate who has those desired “family values”, SEE: Rick Santorum+7 children. Iowa voters will turn to Santorum out of fear.
In Conclusion: Rick Santorum gets Iowa.
Rick Santorum will not win the national nomination. The reasons provided for why Santorum will win in Iowa do not translate to a national level (profile of Iowa voters, backing by Iowa Secretary of State, campaigning heavily in Iowa alone). Romney or Gingrich will win nationally, as Santorum simply lacks campaign resources as well as poll numbers.
Sources:
(1)http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-much-does-organization-really-matter-in-iowa/2011/12/11/gIQA0fo5nO_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop
(2)http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70225.html
(3)http://www.radioiowa.com/2011/12/14/around-the-state-in-nine-days-other-tales-of-the-bus-tour/
(4)http://abcnewsradioonline.com/politics-news/rick-santorum-scores-iowa-endorsement-despite-low-polls.html
(5)http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2011/12/14/gop-evangelicals-iowa
(6)http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/us/politics/on-religion-broad-mindedness-and-bigotry-among-voters.html
The winner of the Iowa caucus is difficult to predict because the Republican race has taken many surprising turns.
Michelle Bachman would appear to have an advantage in the caucus because she was born in Iowa, is geographically close to Iowa thus has spent a lot of time campaigning there, and she is outspoken in her conservative social and fiscal views (2). Michelle was the leader in the Iowa polls in July with 27% of the vote, but has since dropped to 9% (1).
Rick Perry would also seem to be a favorable candidate for the Iowa caucus due to his conservative social views and his outspoken evangelical Christian beliefs (3). Perry was favored by Iowa Republicans in September with over 20% of the vote, but performed poorly in the Republican debates. As a result, Perry’s support has dropped to 10% and he is currently in 4th place (1).
Rick Perry’s rapid drop in the polls was matched by Herman Cain’s equally rapid rise. As recently as October, Cain had the support of just over 5% of the voters. However, by the end of October Cain’s support spiked and he was favored by 30% of the voters (1). Cain’s candidacy was faced with accusations of sexual harassment and extra-marital affairs and his support among the Iowa voters dropped almost as rapidly as it rose (4). By early December, Cain was the favorite of just 9% of the voters and he has since suspended his campaign for President.
Next in line to be favored by Republican voters in Iowa is Newt Gingrich. Gingrich’s support among Iowa Republicans is somewhat surprising given his marital issues (divorced twice) marital infidelity (has engaged in numerous extra-marital affairs) his support for programs that are unpopular with Republicans (was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars lobbying on behalf of FannieMae) and the fact that he is a Washington DC insider (Gingrich has earned millions of dollars as a lobbyist and influence-peddler since leaving Congress). (5, 6, 7). In spite of all these issues which would seem to weigh against him among the Iowa voters, Gingrich is the current leader in the polls with over 27% of the vote (1).
I think Newt Gingrich will win the Iowa caucus, but I doubt he will be the Republican nominee for President. I believe Gingrich will win the Iowa caucus primarily as a matter of timing – he is the current favorite among the voters and has a 9 percentage point lead with less than three weeks remaining before the caucus. However, Newt’s history of marital infidelity will cost him votes among social conservatives and his history as a lobbyist and Washington insider will cost him votes among the anti-Washington voters in the primaries following the Iowa caucus.
1. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_ republican_presidential_primary-1588.html
2. http://www.michelebachmann.com/
3. http://www.rickperry.org/
4. http://www.rickperry.org/
5. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/15/newt-gingrich-website-three-wives_n_1150505.html
6. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/nov/16/news/la-pn-gingrich-freddie-scrutiny-20111116
7. http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2011/12/06/382326/did-newt-gingrich-break-georgias-lobbying-law-in-2004/
I would like to preface my post with the following statements:
As the majority of our class will be aware by the time they finish writing this assignment, there is such an infinite variety of factors in estimating who will win the Iowa caucus and the eventual nomination is a momentous and Sisyphusian undertaking. No matter how much work is spent on research and statistical analysis, each student has an approximate 1 in 10 chance of being correct on the nomination, and a 1 in 100 chance of actually predicting correctly on both. Yes, I understand that not all of the candidates are true contenders in the election, but the sentiment remains the same.
However, that will not stop me from attempting an accurate numerical analysis of each candidates chances based on current data. Wish me luck:
According to the Iowa caucus .BIZ website, there are 10 officially running candidates listed in their order of appearance on that sight: Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Fred Karger, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Buddy Roemer, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum (1). A few of those candidates should be dismissed out of hand so as to narrow the field. Fred Karger, although I support most of his stances on the issues, he is not a truly legitimate contender for the caucus, nor the nomination (5), (4). Likewise, Buddy does not have the needed poll support to make a place on my short-list; however, for the sake of full disclosure, I disagree with almost all of his stances (6), (4). Johnson also does not warrant his own poll entry on Gallup, nor does his name even appear anywhere on the New York Times caucus blog (7), (2), (4). Since November 2nd, John Huntsman’s numbers have not changed more than a single percentile, upwards from 1% to 2% according to Gallup (4). Within the two standard deviations he could only possibly rise another point, placing him far beyond the reach of the election (4). With apologies to Hannah, Rick Santorum is also too low in the polls both according to Gallup and Rasmussen reports to win the Iowa caucus or the election, with a reasonable expectation for his approval being close to between 10 and 12% at the absolute outside (4), (9). It is easy to see how rough these approximations are by my wording, and it will only continue into greater realms of speculation from here, so bear with me. Bachman’s numbers and Perry’s numbers are also below par, neither reaching above a possible 16% support by January 3rd (4), (9). Ron Paul has the next lowest numbers, who, according to numbers reported by Gallup and statistically interpreted by me not could rise above 13% by the caucus, but according to Rasmussen Reports, he is at an almost equal standing with Gingrich (4), (9). I am inclined to agree with the numbers from Gallup, and place him in third place. The race between Romney and Gingrich is close, and well within the possibility of switching places completely (4), (9). At the moment, Gingrich is in the lead, but has begun to decline, to varying degrees depending on the poll (4), (9). By my estimation he will continue to fall until the caucus, plateauing at around 20%, with Romney taking up all of the slack. Romney has the greatest potential to win the Iowa caucus as defined by my methods, in addition to my uncited background knowledge of the topic and the news at hand.
My analysis of the nomination is an extrapolation of the numbers gathered in my earlier post. Gingrich from the latest polls is falling rapidly behind in both Iowa and in the country, as people are slowly learning that he is just as crazy as everyone originally thought he was (2), (3). Ron Paul’s numbers will have an opportunity to creep back up in the coming months, possibly sending him into an apparently contending role with Romney (4). However, due to media portrayal of Ron Paul as a revolutionary to some degree, and the policies he advocates for will not allow him to rise to the top of the polls (2), (10). So, my prediction is as follows; Romney will win the caucus as Gingrich’s numbers steadily drop to a minority core support, and support for Ron Paul will rise in the months before the nomination, however ultimately Romney will win both. (Disclaimer: I cannot stress enough how rough all of these estimations are. They are to the best of my ability accurate, however due to the small sample size in every poll compared to the population, and the small number of voters in the Iowa and other caucus’s, it is nigh impossible to gain accurate and irrefutable information. However, I will stand by my prediction.)
(1) http://www.iowacaucus.biz/
(2) http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/
(3) http://iowacaucus.com/
(4) http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
(5) http://www.fredkarger.com/issues
(6) http://buddyroemer.com/
(7) http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/issues
(8) http://www.gallup.com/poll/151331/Gallup-Daily-GOP-Ballot-Support-Data.aspx
(9)http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/iowa_romney_23_gingrich_20_paul_18
(10) http://xkcd.com/495/
My favorite for the Iowa caucus is that Libertarian oddball of a Congressman, Ron Paul. Paul is well poised to surprise the Republican mainstream and snatch a victory, being in third notwithstanding. As Rasmussen notes, a lead is hardly a sure thing in Iowa- there has been a different leader for the past 5 polls(1). Paul is at 18 percent as of the 13th, with Gingrich at 20 percent and Romney in the lead with 23. Of course, the margin of error is 4 points, throwing the whole race into doubt. Iowa is hardly a forgone conclusion.
Paul has not had great success in past runs at the presidency, but a combination of factors has combined to favor him a great deal. Firstly, Ron Paul is vastly better known now than he was in 2008 or before(2). As any candidate can tell you, it is impossible to win without name recognition. Secondly, the Republican field is extremely weak. Let's have a look at all the candidates who, at one time or another, have shown strength in Iowa.
First, we have Michele Bachmann. Once the impressive victor of the Iowa straw poll(3), Michele Bachmann's star has fallen and she currently sits at 9 percent of the vote in Iowa(1). Barring a miracle, this is not going to move enough to win her the race. Next, let's move on to Rick Perry, once the Tea Party's darling idol. He's sitting at 10 percent(1), after demonstrating little talent for debating and no talent for remembering his own positions(4)! It's safe to say that he's out. How about that GOP outsider Herman Cain, who surged from 4 percent to 28 percent in a short month and a half(1)? Surely he can show the strength and solidarity of the Republican Party? Umm... He's withdrawn. That's right, just clean dropped out of the race after affairs with multiple women went public(5). And so, we move on to the next man, Newt Gingrich. He actually has cleared 30 percent support in Iowa at one point, and still is tied with Paul. He actually looks like a contender. Just one small problem here. It seems that good old "Hypocrisy" Gingrich is best known for having an extramarital affair at the exact time he was criticizing Bill Clinton for the same(6). Add this to his three marriages and multiple extramarital affairs beyond just the ones he was having during the Clinton administration. Wait... This sounds familiar. Didn't Cain just drop out for doing this? I refuse to believe that the 60 percent of Iowa voters that self-identify as evangelical(7) are going to ignore this come caucus time.
This leaves Romney and Ron Paul. Romney has a history of waffling, siding with liberals on numerous issues, and generally not taking strong conservative positions. While Ron Paul has a highly ambiguous gay marriage stance and voted to repeal Don't Ask Don't Tell, Romney is a Mormon. Neither will endear themselves to evangelicals, but they at least they aren't about to be kicked out like Cain or Gingrich. Call this part even. The biggest issue for Romney here is that he is mainstream and moderate. Voters in caucuses, as a rule, are the extreme ones. Paul takes nothing if not an extreme viewpoint, and he will have a decisive advantage because of this.
This leads us into one more point in Paul's favor. A poor economic climate has lead the nation to a mentality that intensely favors those who promise radical change and those who are political outsiders. Paul certainly is aiming for radical change, and he is a political outsider despite his time in Washington, because of his constant aversion to any form of compromise with his beliefs. Paul and the establishment are as far apart as they can come and still live in the same city.
Finally, young voters have traditionally been the province of Democrats, with little interest on the behalf of the Republicans. This is a sizable voting block, and Ron Paul has demonstrated a unique ability to capture it in neighboring states(8). This is just one more advantage in his favor.
So, Ron Paul is the likely in Iowa. What about the nomination as a whole? I feel it will come down to a close race between Paul and Romney, the others having self-destructed in a most spectacular fashion. In this race I give Paul the edge, for reasons as mentioned above. The nature of caucuses and primaries, as well as the current economic times demanding change, are going to combine to give an unusual and little-heard voice the nomination.
(1)http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/iowa_romney_23_gingrich_20_paul_18
(2) http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/26/ron-paul-2012-could-outperform-ron-paul-2008/
(3) http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2011/08/13/139609370/michele-bachmann-wins-iowa-straw-poll
(4) http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/111110/gop-debate-rick-perry-forgets-agency
(5) http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/03/news/la-pn-cain-announcement-20111203
(6) http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/03/28/960944/-Gingrich-denies-impeachment-hypocrisy-over-affair-with-House-GOP-staffer
(7) http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2011/12/14/gop-evangelicals-iowa
(8) Various posters and desks around Thomas Jefferson High School
For the Iowa caucus, I would contend that Mitt Romney will win the caucus. This is because I believe he is simply the most reasonable candidate. The others are more exciting and interesting news sensations, but I believe that when Iowans cast their votes, they will put such statements aside and vote for who they think would have the best chance of beating Obama. Gingrich has been losing buzz, and Ron Paul has probably gained the most. Romey even described Gingrich as “zany” and said that “Zany is not what we need in a president”. (1) To be honest, I think he is just right about this. The poll conducted by Rasmussen shows that the race is very close and that Romney has 23%, Gingrich has 20%, and Ron Paul has 18%. Clearly, the race could go any of those three directions, especially at the point where the poll has a margin of error of 4%. However, Rasmussen is a repuatable source for legitimate polling data, and it si the most recent data I can find, which leads me to believe that it is as close to accurate as I could get. (2) This, coupled with the argument I made about Romney being more realistic makes a strong case for his potential win in the caucus. When I went straight to Rasmussen’s website, they specifically said that “For the fifth straight survey, the GOP has a new frontrunner in Iowa.” (3) This also makes me feel more confident in my choice of Romney. Not only is he the candidate that is currently “the republican fad,” but I believe that this is the time when voters get serious and thus they will take these opinions to the polls. The survey was a telephone survey that gave Rick Perry 10% of the vote and Bachmann 9%, and Rick Santorum 6%. There were 8% that were undecided, and I think Republicans are not likely to make a last minute decision for a candidate that they see as “out there”. Gingrich is on a downward slide, seeing as he lost 12% in the last month. No one specifically benefitted from Cain’s dropping out of the race, those votes appeared to be split pretty evenly between the candidates. Not only that, but of those that are certain to vote, Romney has a more substantial lead. He has 29% and Gingrich and Paul are tied at 22%.
1. http://www.kcautv.com/story/16332987/latest-polls-finds-a-new-leader-for-ia-caucuses
2. http://www.9news.com/news/article/236078/328/New-poll-Romney-winning-ahead-of-Iowa-caucuses-
3. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus
As the Iowa caucus approaches, Republican candidates are focusing their efforts in winning the first primary election. This caucus sets the mood for the rest of the primary season and I believe that Mitt Romney will be the one to win the Iowa Caucus this January.
Currently Mitt Romney is shown to be leading polls in Iowa with 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich with 20%. (1) One week ago polls showed Gingrish leading with 33% and Romney trailing wi only 20%. (4) The fact that Romney is now leading the polls, and that Gingrich dropped that much, shows that Romney's increased efforts in Iowa have paid off. After having spent so much campaign money in Iowa 4 years ago only to come in second, Romney had originally thought to go for a leaner approach. (2) When Gingrich jumped into the lead though, Romney turned his focus to Iowa, in hopes of saving his standing, and still winning the caucus there. (2) I believe that Romney's "volunteer army" will help Romney's numbers to increase. (3) This army consists of many people Iowa who are willing to publically support Romney in the hopes of gaining more support for him so that he can win the caucus. (3) I expect Romney's standings in the polls to continue to rise, and Gingrich's and others' numbers to fall, thus allowing for Romney to win the Iowa caucus, setting the mood for the rest of the primary elections.
I also think that Romney will have a good chance at winning the Republican nomination. Of Iowa caucus go-ers, 30% believe that Romney would be the strongest opponent against President Obama, followed closely by Gingrich with 29%. (1) According to other polls, the average percentage of Romney vs. President Obama and Gingrich vs. President Obama shows President Obama winning by much less against Romney than Gingrich. (5) This shows that Romney would be the best choice for Republicans for the presidential election, and therefore I believe that he will win both the Iowa caucus and the Republican nomination.
1. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus
2. http://iowacaucus.com/2011/12/13/romney-attacks-on-gingrich-raising-stakes-in-iowa/
3. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/mitt-romneys-secret-weapon-in-iowa-an-elite-volunteer-army/
4. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/08/group-launches-major-pro-romney-iowa-ad-campaign/
5. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html
In the upcoming Iowa caucus I think Gingrich will take the win. In the New York Times article, “A First Iowa Forecast: Race Is Still Wide Open”, Gingrich took the lead in a poll led by Public Policy Polling Insider Advantage, taken on December 13, 2011. In this poll it showed that Gingrich was number one in vote projection with 25% (1). I think that this is a strong indicator that he could take the win because vote projection is the “best guess of how a candidate will perform on Election Day” (1). The same poll provided by The Times showed the Gingrich had 49.6% in winning probability, beating the runner up Romney by 21.4% (1). Another reason I think that Gingrich has this causcus in the bag is because I do not think he has very much competition. Besides Paul there’s really no competition; the other candidates are not scoring very highly in the recent polls. Gingrich is still in the lead with 28.3 percent and Paul with 16.7% in a Real Clear Politics poll (2). Even with Paul close behind there is little chance for him. Iowa caucus voters usually decide who they are going to vote for two weeks before Christmas (2). I think it is too late for any other candidates to make an impression on voters because most already know who they are voting for. Gingrich is in the lead now, but he has to be very careful about his campaign strategy. Lately, Gingrich’s momentum went down 2.2% based on the same poll for The Times. This is mainly due to the recent attacks on his temperamental personality. Especially since other candidates are going be attacking Gingrich’s campaign fiercely. The Other Candidates are going to take advantage of the recent falls and base their attacks on his temper (3). Romney, doing whatever it takes to keep Gingrich from winning, was recently quoted for calling Gingrich “zany” (3). However, I do not think these recent attacks are going to keep Gingrich from winning especially since he nailed his front-runner debate last week in Des Moines and is keeping his cool (3). If he does this he will have no problem winning.
1) http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/13/our-first-iowa-forecast-gingrich-leads-paul-gaining-race-still-wide-open/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
2) http://www.kansascity.com/2011/12/11/3314719/iowa-caucus-goers-may-start-locking.html
3) http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/15/politics/iowa-debate/
My question is this: why are we doing this assignment three weeks out? It makes next to little sense, as there is no way that anyone can have any understanding of how this race will turn out. Case in point. Two days ago, fivethirtyeight reported that Gingrich had a 50% chance of winning the caucus, based on a very methodologically sound analysis (which I will use later). However, less than 72 hours later Gingrich’s chances of winning dropped to 35%. For those of you that don’t understand numbers, Gingrich went from being clearly ahead to falling down a steep cliff of doom. And this is Three. Weeks. Out. I am struggling to wrap my brain around the odds of someone winning because those odds are dependent on so many variables. However, this post is an attempt by me to do my best at making an accurate prediction on the outcome of the caucus.
As I said before, I will be utilizing Nate Silver’s work in creating my analysis of who I think will win the GOP nomination in Iowa. However, there are a couple of things to note before I begin. First, as Mr. Silver says “In the late stages of a primary or caucus race, a week is an eternity and even a couple of days can be meaningful.” This means that the more recent data used, the more accurate the prediction. In my case I will be using the most recent data I can. Over time, new data should be worked into my statistical model to make better predictions of who the winner is. Second, unlike fivethirtyeight I will attempt to take into consideration the collapse of some candidate’s voting base before the caucus, and reallocate those votes accordingly. So here goes.
I am basing my model on two different criterions, basically because I am crunched for time. The first is weighted poll average. This is a measure of poll data that takes into account and gives weights to sample size, pollster rating and how recently the poll was conducted. The recentness of the poll gets the most weight, because historical trends show that the more recent polls are almost always the most accurate. The weighted poll average compiled by Nate Silver on the 13th shows that Newt Gingrich has an average of 25.1% of the vote; Paul has 18, Romney 15.4, Perry 10.6 and Bachmann 9.8. The other candidates in the race have poll counts so low that they can be discounted, at least from my perspective. To this I take into account momentum, which is basically how well the candidate has been doing in the polls. This is sort of an empirical mixed with some pseudo-future predictive analysis of the candidate’s chance of winning. Momentum is hard to define, but essentially all the candidates but Romney and Gingrich have positive momentum, with Paul gaining the most momentum. Therefore, I predict that while Romney continues to be the frontrunner in the national race, he doesn’t have as good of a chance at winning the Iowa caucus. I also think that Gingrich is dropping so rapidly that there is little chance of his support continuing for very long. I therefore predict that Ron Paul will win the Iowa caucus. Besides just poll data, there are a few other events/happenings that make me somewhat comfortable making this prediction. First, Ron Paul barely lost to Bachmann in the Ames straw poll back in September or October or whenever that was (For more info, check out my blog post about Bachmann). He also won the California straw poll, which I discussed in my presentation of Paul during class. I think this proves that he has the ability to a) win things and b) mobilize voters to take advantage of the chaos around him. I also see Paul gaining support as the “not-Romney”, but he is doing so consistently. Unlike Cain and Gingrich, who rose to fast and collapsed too fast, Paul has taken his time is mobilizing support to counter Romney in Iowa.
Additionally, I do not see Perry, Bachmann, Santorum or Huntsman emerging as the not-Mitt candidate either. Perry already assumed that role when he entered the race, and it was clear that he couldn’t handle the spotlight. Bachmann stands a chance, but I do not think that she holds as much sway over Iowa voters as she might like, nor do I think that she has any chance of gaining the media spotlight again. Santorum theoretically could become the anti-Mitt, but he is so far behind that any gains he does make shouldn’t pose a threat to Paul. Also, based on the debates Santorum supporters are unlikely to be the same people as Paul supporters. That leaves Huntsman, but he is the same as Romney, and it makes zero sense for Lil’Romney to become the anti-Romney. Additionally, in picking Paul as my winner I have taken into account the fact that in all likelihood one candidate will drop out of the race by the time the caucus starts. I think that their voters will be split among all of the not-Romney candidates, with Paul getting a slight edge in being everyone’s second pick. The closer the collapse comes to the vote the more likely I think it is that Paul gets those votes. Call me crazy.
The question next is; who will win the overall GOP nomination? I don’t really want to answer this question, because I think the GOP race will stay open for a long time, and it won’t be New Hampshire or Iowa that determines the winner. I think that it is fundamentally a question of whether or not there emerges a not-Romney that is able normal enough to hold onto the spotlight for long enough to beat Romney, but therein lies the fallacy of the GOP race: no one that sane could ever become the not-Romney. That said, I do not think that Paul will win the race. I may be hating, but I just don’t think the guy has the mass appeal he needs to win the race. Additionally, I think that Gingrich, if he doesn’t collapse in Iowa, will by the time South Carolina and Florida roll around. I just don’t see anyone that can truly challenge Mitt, and I think that he is the only one with the staying power to be able to stick it out to the RNC convention. Also, giving his record on flip flopping, he could well become the not-Romney himself.
Sources: I didn’t specifically cite, but here they are. I included articles that are interesting/ gave me background on statistical methodology.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-methodology.html
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/new-polls-gingrich-is-less-likable-among-general-election-voters/?ref=newyorktimespollwatch
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/13/our-first-iowa-forecast-gingrich-leads-paul-gaining-race-still-wide-open/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/15/gingrich-momentum-slows-polls-suggest/
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/ron-paul
Personally, I can see a Gingrich win in the Iowa caucus but not in the nomination. Gingrich has recently surged to the top of the leader boards in polls across the nation, but he has not found much support among independents and Hispanics (2). In the latest poll, Gingrich has 40% of potential GOP voters, compared to Romney’s 23% (2). I think that all of this support has come from the Cain scandal. I believe that GOP voters got scared that Cain dropped out, and they latched on to Gingrich because he wasn’t Romney or Perry. They didn’t latch onto Romney because people just don’t like him, and they didn’t latch onto Perry because of his recent debating fiascos. Also, Gingrich also unveiled his new strategy for his campaign: to have this be a positive race (1). He decided to not mudsling like his contender Romney has done against him, and I think people respect Newt for that (1). I don’t think this new popularity will last for Newt. I think that once everyone settles down and people start to drop out, that Mr. Gingrich will drop in the polls and the GOP nomination will go to Mr. Romney. I think that Mitt has been a strong candidate in this race and seems to touch on issues that people like. Romney has a plan to win the nomination through the use of organization (3). The 30 States that hold their contests before April, 1 will give out their delegates proportional to the number of votes each candidate gets (3). I also think that it is possible that Herman Cain could get back in the race. If Mr. Cain enters back in, I think that it could be possible for him to win the nomination, but it is still unlikely that he will enter again.
3) http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mitt-romney-looks-to-outlast-and-outwork-gingrich-to-gop-nomination/2011/12/01/gIQApviaMO_story.html
2)http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203430404577096703573975494.html
1) http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2011/12/15/all_eyes_on_gingrich_in_last_debate_before_caucus/
The Republican race has been so close that it’s difficult to really predict anything at this point in time. Nearly every potential candidate (with the possible exception of Jon Huntsman) has taken the lead at one time or another, and the opinions of the public are prone to very rapid changes. That said, I think that Ron Paul has at least a decent shot of winning the Iowa caucus.
For one thing, Paul has put a significant amount of effort into creating the sort of Iowa campaign that has typically been successful, including appearances in person and work at the grassroots level (1). This makes him stand out from candidates such as Mitt Romney, who has been neglecting Iowa in favor of New Hampshire (1).
Romney, Paul, and Newt Gingrich are currently considered the frontrunners in Iowa, at least according to the poll numbers (2). Paul has recently made significant gains in the polls, which bodes well for his chances of eventual victory (3). Although it will be a close race no matter what, Paul does have some significant advantages over both of them. Paul has been praised for his consistency (4), which is definitely a positive when competing against Romney, notorious for “flip-flopping” on the issues in the past (5). As for Gingrich, Paul is better established in Iowa, having set up offices there during his campaign in 2008 (2). Gingrich is also likely to come under fire from conservative Iowa voters for his several marriages and well-known infidelity (1).
The fact that Ron Paul has not typically been considered a frontrunner until now may actually serve to his advantage. The leading candidates are often attacked for their policies and torn apart by their opponents in debates. Paul has yet to experience this, and in fact noted that “they have been pretty courteous to me” (6). The fact that he hasn’t been in the lead means he hasn’t been as thoroughly deconstructed as other candidates, like Romney. With the caucus approaching so quickly, Paul seems to have peaked at exactly the right time. When the candidates are so close in the polls, timing may actually be the most important factor in determining who wins the caucus. Momentum will be crucial in this race, and at the moment, Paul seems to have it.
However, I do not think Paul will win the national nomination. For one thing, doing well in Iowa and potentially New Hampshire would certainly make him a frontrunner and draw the scrutiny that he has so far avoided. Additionally, Paul himself has questioned his stamina for a long campaign (3). Besides the fact that this statement doesn’t bode well for a four-year presidency, expressing self-doubt doesn’t seem like a particularly good strategy for a politician. Paul needs to keep his supporters, not make them question him.
1. http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/15/politics/iowa-debate/index.html
2. http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/15/politics/ron-paul-iowa/index.html
3. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/14/paul-reacts-to-positive-poll-fortunes-nagging-questions-about-electability/
4. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2011/1215/The-final-GOP-debate-before-Iowa-what-each-candidate-needs-to-do
5. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/rudy-giuliani-bashes-mitt-romney-flip-flopper-praises-newt-gingrich-article-1.991913
6. http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/your-world-cavuto/2011/12/15/ron-paul-gaining-steam-iowa?page=1
While it is still too early to accurately predict the outcome of the Iowa caucus, I believe that Mitt Romney has the greatest chance of winning. During the final GOP debate before the Iowa caucus, it appeared as if Romney, Ron Paul, and Michele Bachmann were the leading candidates. Romney made a smart move by remaining civil and neutral with Gingrich during the debate, especially since Gingrich is currently leading in the polls [1, 2]. Furthermore, this was a wise strategy for Romney. It will aid him by increasing the possibility of receiving more potential votes, especially since Gingrich is losing popularity [1]. He is hoping to pick up Gingrich’s old followers and appear as the best alternative. Despite the fact, a few days ago, Gingrich appeared to have a high potential of winning the Iowa caucus, he has lost considerable steam in the race. This is mainly due to the numerous attacks he has received from opposing candidates and debate moderators about previous actions on topics such as health care and climate change [3]. He was even accused of being hypocritical on his opinion for the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae situation [4]. Therefore, I believe Gingrich will soon be out of the running for winning the Iowa caucus and the GOP nomination. All of these attacks are causing Gingrich to lose popularity [5].
There is a strong possibility for Romney to win the nomination for the Republican nominee as well as the Iowa caucus [1]. After looking over Gallup’s graph of GOP Ballot tracking, it seems as if Romney is a clear winner. While Gringrich has had a significant increase in popularity over the past month or so, he is also steadily losing his popularity. As stated above, I believe he is no longer a viable option for the Republican nominee. While the other candidates, such as Bachmann, Perry, and Huntsman, have less than ten percent popularity for GOP candidates, Romney has had little change in his ratings in the low twenties [1]. Even though his rates have not increased as much as competitors, such as Bachmann and Huntsman, his stability to remain one of the leading candidates and as a whole shows he has a solid base of supporters [1]. I doubt Rick Perry will be nominated for the GOP nominee because of his history of being inconsistent and making major mistakes during many of his debates [6]. Many believe this shows he is not strong enough to compete against the obvious Democrat nominee, President Obama [4]. If the Republicans have any chance of having their nominee become the next president, it is vital for them to choose a very strong candidate to win a majority of votes in the next presidential election. The public’s opinion on President Obama and the Republican nominee is practically spilt 50/50, discounting those without an opinion or those voting for an independent candidate [7].
[1] http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
[2] http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/winners-and-losers-in-final-iowa-debate-before-iowa-caucus/
[3] http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/15/politics/iowa-debate/index.html
[4] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/16/us/politics/gingrich-parries-with-challengers-at-iowa-debate.html?_r=1&ref=politics
[5] http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/11/10/perrys-painful-performance-opens-door-wider-for-gingrich/
[6] http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/new-polls-gingrich-is-less-likable-among-general-election-voters/?ref=newyorktimespollwatch
[7] http://www.gallup.com/poll/148076/2012-voter-preferences-obama-republican-remain-close.aspx
There is no doubt that the race between GOP contenders has taken many unique turns throughout the past several months. One key characteristic of this year’s GOP race is that there has been no definitive front-runner throughout this entire process, giving practically anyone a chance in winning. As a result, it makes it quite difficult to predict who win the Iowa caucus in January as well as the overall Republican nomination. With that being said, I believe that it will be Ron Paul who will surprise the nation by winning the Iowa caucus.
Ron Paul has easily become this year’s most unlikely of the 2012 candidates, withstanding multiple obstacles that would seemingly have rendered his campaign short as well as the jeers of our government class. He has been able to “transform himself into a force to be reckoned with in the Republican race,” gaining a somewhat legitimate chance of taking the lead amongst the other Republican contenders [1]. Although many people are quick to discredit this 76-year old, crazy man, the fact that he has had steady poll numbers throughout this race cannot be ignored [5], unlike some of his more “prominent” opponents. Recent polls have shown Ron Paul surging not only in Iowa but also against the other top GOP contenders [2]. Meanwhile, his toughest competition, Gingrich and Romney, have been losing ground [3]. He currently stands neck and neck with Mitt Romney for second place [1], but with the recent trends in the polls that could easily change.
Ron Paul has definitely gained more recognition in this year’s political proceedings, which has significantly helped his campaign to reach out or at least become more apparent amongst the general public. This is a positive addition to his already deep support system that in the past has not been considered too wide [1]. He has remained firm in his “philosophies” that he has developed over many years, allowing him to be one of the few not considered to be a flip-flopper [1]. This could be both a blessing and a curse for him, depending on how it all plays out in the future. In addition, Ron Paul is far better organized, particularly in Iowa, than in years past as well as having greater financial means [1]. These are both extremely important factors when it comes to running a good campaign and winning when it counts.
With most Republicans not fully committed to a candidate, it leaves Iowa completely open to any of the candidates [4]. With all this information, as well as other outside knowledge, I feel that it is justified to predict that Ron Paul will win the Iowa caucus, surprising everyone. However, I do not believe that he will win the Republican nomination. I feel that he too will succumb to the trend of “winning big” and then drifting from center stage, allowing someone a bit more moderate (maybe Mitt Romney) to fill this position.
[1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/ron-paul-the-unlikeliest-2012-force/2011/12/14/gIQAvohuuO_blog.html
[2] http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/14/paul-reacts-to-positive-poll-fortunes-nagging-questions-about-electability/
[3] http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/13/our-first-iowa-forecast-gingrich-leads-paul-gaining-race-still-wide-open/?ref=politics
[4] http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/behind-the-numbers/post/poll-watcher-gop-still-unsure-of-candidates/2011/12/13/gIQAxxI3tO_blog.html
[5] http://www.mediaite.com/tv/chris-wallace-if-ron-paul-wins-in-iowa-it-will-discredit-the-iowa-caucuses/
As we get closer to the Iowa caucus, the multitude of Republican candidate have definitely been concentrating their campaigns on winning this primary. Because this caucus will set the stage for the remaining primary season and I predict that Mitt Romney will win the Iowa Caucus.
Romney is currently leading the Iowa polls by three points above Newt Gingrich’s 20%. Last week, the polls showed that Gingrich was leading with 33% and Romney was behind him with 20% (1). Romney’s surge in the polls are a result of his increased campaigning in Iowa were undoubtedly good for his campaign. Romney was planning on a different approach to Iowa because he’s been campaigning for 8 years (4). When Gingrich was in the lead Romney had to focus on Iowa to regain his footing and win the all too important caucus. I’m also convinced that Romney’s “volunteer army” will assist the growth of his numbers. The “army” is made of Iowan individuals who have said that they would publically support Romney in the expectation that it would increase advocation of his campaign and help him win the caucus (3). I predict that Romney’s numbers will steadily increase in the polls while the other candidates’ number fall. If this happens, Romney will definitely win Iowa and have a bigger chance at winning the election.
Romney has a very strong chance at winning the Republican nomination. Currently, about 30% of the Iowa caucus attendees are convinced that Romney is the strongest candidate against our incumbent. Unfortunately, Gingrich is right behind him, capturing 29% of the attendees‘ supports. In accordance with other polls, there is a much larger chance of Romney winning against Obama and Gingrich (1). These polls are evidence that Romney is the best choice for the Republicans in this election and this is why I predict his win in Iowa and, ultimately, the Republican nomination.
1. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus 2. http://iowacaucus.com/2011/12/13/romney-attacks-on-gingrich-raising-stakes-in-iowa/ 3. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/mitt-romneys-secret-weapon-in-iowa-an-elite-volunteer-army/ 4. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/08/group-launches-major-pro-romney-iowa-ad-campaign/ 5. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html
I won't pretend that I'm sure who will win the Iowa caucus, because the fact is that it's still somewhat up in the air. But if I had to put money on a candidate, I would bet that Ron Paul will win. He's currently placing second in Iowa caucus polls, behind Newt Gingrich [1]. I think with a few weeks still ahead of us, Newt will do or say something stupid that will lower his support. Also, Newt doesn't really have any presence in Iowa, meaning any undecided caucus voters are probably less likely to choose him. Paul, on the other hand, has a wide base of support in Iowa who are passionate about his every move [2].
Ron Paul is an extremely charismatic and enthusiastic individual who has a legion of volunteers helping him. In Iowa, that will serve him very well. Some political analysts consider his ground team "one of the best that has ever been assembled" [3]. However, I don't see this carrying over into Paul winning the nomination. His views are too extreme to win over much of the Republican party, and his libertarianism means that his views on social issues are different from the majority of Republicans. But as I began with, we'll just have to wait and see.
[1]http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/ron-paul
[2] http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57344013-503544/iowa-debate-republican-winners-and-losers/
[3]http://www.forbes.com/sites/benzingainsights/2011/12/07/why-ron-paul-will-win-iowa/
I believe Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus. And even if he doesn't, he should. Bear with me.
Early on, pollsters of Iowa had been researching the standings of the candidates as Newt Gingrich came ahead as a half-and-half sort of dark-horse candidate. As he came up there though, somebody came riding up on that momentum, and that was our buddy Paul. December 5th, a number of acclaimed Iowa newspapers had to do a double take as they realized who was battling with Mitt Romney for 2nd place in the Iowa standings (1). However, this change is not necessarily a significant alteration of what was already happening, as about a month ago certain Iowa papers had placed Paul only "one percentage point behind Cain" (1) in their data analysis. The next thing I would like to point out is that although voters place Ron Paul currently as about choice #7 for the GOP race, his approval ratings themselves, when people know about him, match Barack Obama's essentially state for state at around 40% (2). Paul has also been consistently drawing larger crowds than all of the other running candidates due to his unconventional philosophy combined with the traditional form of campaigning and reaching out to Americans (3). Additionally, reports on the standings of candidates and their operations themselves are coming in and they look good for Paul. While Paul's headquarters and offices are a hubbub of activity at all reasonable hours, even Mitt Romney's offices are closed at midmorning at a time like this (4). Furthermore, next to Gingrich, Ron Paul is the next not-Romney candidate that is available to the Republican voters, and both hard-in-the-paint Paulers (not to be confused with "ballers") as well as anyone who happens to be soundly anti-Mitt/Newt will be headed to the polls for him (4). Finally, because of the ambiguity of the standings of both Newt and Mitt given whether or not people will actually put their money where their mouths are for them, Paul has that much more of a chance of gaining Iowa and running towards denting Romney in New Hampshire on the same tank of gas (5).
Will Ron Paul win the national nomination? Eh. Not likely. Disillusioned as Republicans might be with their candidates, I'm not convinced they're quite willing to go there yet. America can only hope.
(1)http://rt.com/usa/news/ron-paul-iowa-poll-091/
(2)http://www.ronpaul.com/2012-ron-paul/ron-paul-polls/
(3)http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-ron-paul-iowa-20111215,0,6553691.story
(4)http://www.infowars.com/cnn-admits-ron-paul-could-win-iowa/
(5)http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/15/politics/ron-paul-iowa/index.html
The first thing to evaluate is the people that have no chance. I feel Gingrich, despite his current position in the coveted "next to Romney" spot, I feel that when it comes to getting the vote out, that his campaign team will likely not get much of a voting audience. [1]. Ron paul is always going to be the third person in addition to the two frontrunners, but i feel his idea on removing oil subsidies would appease a large amount of the ethanol farmers, but that might not be enough. It would be wishful thinking to assume that he would win. Herman Cain's televised blunders demonstrate a lack of knowledge needed. Bachman won the straw poll but her resounding national popularity has hit rock bottom. I believe Rick santorum, despite a lack of media attention, has a high chance of getting the nomination. He has a superpac that is launching a two hundred thousand dollar ad blitz [2], and he has recieved the backing of the secretary of state, 3. For these reasons I think it will fall to Santorum. His only other competition is Romney, who is mostly focusing on slamming ginrich, the divisive issue between the two, is that Santorum is socially conservative, where as Romney is a moderate socially. It will be impossible for Romney to win iowa without a flipflop which will cost him so much in the end. Santorum is likely to win Iowa, but I do not think he will get the niomination, as a nation, social values are taking a backburner, but those are what defines Santorums campaign.
So I know lots of people have said this but ill reiterate the point again. The polls show a different person in the lead all the time, and there is still lots of time before the caucus so it's almost anyones game. I would also just like to make the point that I really don't think its going to matter who wins the nomination because Obama is going to be reelected. The Republican party would need to have a candidate that was across the board very popular, and the Republicans can't afford to be split in there opinions at all. So the fact that the Tea Party is just kind of going crazy sucks for the Republicans. Anyway I'm guessing, a point I can't stress enough, Newt Gingrich will win the Iowa caucus. Why? mostly because his numbers haven't been terrible, I've heard his name before and according to this (1) he was most recently in the lead in the Iowa polls. He has also been campaigning in Iowa, so thats going to help him out (2). Ron Paul though is looking like a strong possibility as well (3). In fact I think he might win in Iowa but his recent polls just are not as good as Newts. However there is a lot of time before the 2012 Iowa caucus for Ron Paul to slip ahead in the polls or drop out of the race, we just do not know yet. There is still plenty of time for Ron (and the other candidates) to run successful campaigns in Iowa (4).
1. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus
2.http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/15/michele-bachmann-campaign-fights-inaccuracy-accusation-from-newt-gingrich/
3.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-campion/the-ron-paul-factor_1_b_1153239.html
4. http://www.iowacaucus.biz/
The Iowa Caucus presents a unique challenge, at least as far as predicting the results of it go. Currently there are three front runners after the latest debate: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney with Newt in the lead thus far (1). The recent jump in rating for Newt could be attributed to one of several things, in my opinion. His performance in the debate could have been substantially better than the other candidates, he could have gained momentum after Cain dropped out of the race, or it could have been caused by the natural variance in the course of the election. I say this because, from my own observations, sometimes a candidate will move ahead of another because of an other candidate's poor performance or, as in this instance, his own maintenance of his sanity. From what I gathered of the debate, Newt was able to hold his own as the others, particularly Romney and Perry argued over Romney's book. I definitely feel that Newt’s strong lead of 10% over Romney and Paul this close to the election will help lead him to a strong finish in Iowa, my one reservation being Romney’s relative steadiness throughout his campaigning-- and this is in spite of his relatively non-traditional views on health care, and gay rights (2). I feel that his strategy would be more effective in a presidential race than when he is competing against other Republicans. Newt, on the other hand, provides a much more traditional Republican platform built up from his past experiences as a Republican leader in congress (3). I think things are looking good for Newt at this point only because his competition is a) farther behind him in the polls and b) he represents a more traditional view of the Republican party, unlike Paul because he is more of a Libertarian. Since traditional elections (ones involving both parties) demand more moderate candidates it is logical to assume a party based election should favor a candidate with more traditional, hence more moderate in comparison to the extremes of a party, viewpoint. Newt currently represents this relative middle-ground accurately and should logically be the selection in the Iowa Caucus.
1 http://2012.presidential-candidates.org/?news=ABC-News-Iowa-Republican-Debate
2 http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/mitt-romney?inline=nyt-per
3 http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/newt-gingrich
I think that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will win the Iowa caucus. He is the frontrunner [1] and I think that he will win the caucus because of his current status in the polls, but I don’t think that his first-place spot will hold for much longer than the Iowa caucus. This is not to say that this could not change. Opinions about the Iowa caucus outcome have changed multiple times just in the last few months. This makes it difficult to determine a guaranteed winner, because no candidate has been in the lead for long enough to make them the clear nomination.
I also think that money is very important in campaigns, and it is clear that Gingrich does not have as much as his top competitors. [4] He talked about how he simply won’t have as many ads out to endorse himself, because of his lack of funds. This will definitely make a negative impact on his success after Iowa because, as we know, the media (and media ads) have a strong influence on voters. If Gingrich does not have enough positive media endorsed by his own campaign, his positive efforts may risk being overpowered by the other candidates’ efforts to put him down.
It was clear from the debate that the candidates are attacking him because he is the front-runner (based on polling results) and they are trying to bring him down. They want to make it harder for him to pull out any further ahead than the rest of the candidates by drilling him with questions about his credentials and what his plans are if he were to win the nomination, and then win the presidential election. Both voters and government officials ask him these types of questions because both groups are looking for solid answers that will help them determine whether or not he will benefit them as president. Some GOP officials are worried about the possibility of Gingrich’s win. They want his momentum to end because they think that he is a different candidate who has some unique views on issues. [3]
As far as winning the nomination goes, I think that Gingrich will win the Iowa caucus but will not be successful in winning the nomination. I think so because I think that people like Gingrich in theory, and they want to see him succeed, but when it comes down to the facts, they aren’t as confident in him as they are in some of the other candidates. His marital issues (he was the first candidate ever who actually had to be asked if he would be faithful to his wife while in office [2]) as well as some of his stances on controversial issues (such as same-sex marriage [2]) will cause people to think twice before they give him their vote for the GOP nomination.
I think that Mitt Romney will actually win the Republican nomination, because he is the most electable candidate in the general election. Of the Republican candidates, I find Romney to be the most “middle-of-the-road” in his views. I think that this will work in his favor because he will likely appeal to more voters (after the Iowa caucus) than will his competitors.
Sources:
[1] http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/newt-gingrichs-campaign-can-he-make-his-poll-numbers-the-caucus-results/
[2] http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/135541293.html
[3] http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-16/gingrich-criticism-GOP/52007338/1
[4] http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/la-pn-gingrich-iowa-defends-record-20111214,0,70136.story
I think that Newt Gringich will win the Iowa Caucus. Gringich on the whole is very personable, and has maintained his composure throughout the televised debates [1]. While other candidates are having scandals exposed, Gringich is resting easy knowing he got his vacation faux pas out of the way near the beginning of the campaign trail. While Gringich may be criticized for “organizational shortcomings” [2] in Iowa, in this day and age (with the resources of the internet), I am confident that Gringich’s charm and natural momentum will carry him through the caucus. Gringich not only has significant experience in congress [3], but seems to understand the symbiotic relationship between government and the people very well, having been a part of the system for so long. Gringich is the type of candidate who inspires loyalty and commitment in his followers, and I know that they will step to the plate. If his poll results and number of twitter followers are any indication, Gringich will win a sweeping victory. In addition, Gringich shows the most promise for technological innovation while in office, with ideas for a moon colony for extracting minerals [4], and more.
While I think that there is a significant chance that Gringich will also win the nomination, attention must be paid to Romney. Although his numbers may not be topping the charts right now, I believe he will appeal to the broadest audience. Ultimately, Gringich is old news, part of an old system of government that the entire electorate, whose interests the Republican party must take into account when deciding on a nominee, will not want in office. Romney, is the best foil for Obama, which is why he is my choice for the Republican Nomination. Romney simply exudes an air of intelligence and capability, and has the experience and more moderate decisions to appeal to more people.
[1] http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2011/1215/The-final-GOP-debate-before-Iowa-what-each-candidate-needs-to-do
[2] http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-iowa-caucuses-gingrich-20111217,0,2659388.story
[3] http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/15/in-fort-dodge-newt-gingrich-draws-on-economic-experience-in-congress/
[4] http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2011/1215/Newt-Gingrich-8-of-the-GOP-idea-man-s-more-unusual-ideas/Establishing-a-moon-colony-to-extract-minerals
I have no idea who will win the Iowa caucus. But if I have to guess, I will choose Romney. Personally, I do not feel that flavor of the day Newt Gingrich will take the victory for a number of reasons, despite his strong poll numbers. Romney, who has held the front-runner position for most of the race, will regain his atop the podium. The first is that I strongly dislike Gingrich and his history of extremely divisive politics, and predicting his winning is equivalent to admitting defeat (1). Many people share my views. I also think that Newt’s baggage will prove to be a hindrance. Herman Cain was the last candidate to lead Romney in the polls, and he was undone by allegations of sexual abuse. Gingrich has had multiple confirmed affairs and divorces, which at least to me seems significantly worse (2); I’m a liberal atheist, I’m willing to bet that evangelical Christians will be even more bothered by this. Not everyone can buy his born again story.
Romney, a moderate, is the candidate that appeals to the widest variety of people. Perry is seen by many as somewhat daft, Michele Bachman as a bit crazy, Newt as a tad elitist, and Huntsman as quite irrelevant. In addition, all of these people are too conservative to please a wide audience (except Huntsman, but he’s irrelevant, remember?). The Republican party has cycled through a number of fads, with all of the previous candidates (if you subtract Huntsman and add Cain) have enjoyed a brief period as the leading candidate. The only constant has been Romney, who has always been in first or second place (3). With all of this in mind, I think that Romney will win.
(1) http://www.mediaite.com/tv/chris-hayes-on-gingrich-hard-to-think-of-anyone-more-widely-reviled-and-polarizing/
(2) http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2011/nov/30/evangelical-leader-urges-gingrich-explain-affairs/
(3) http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/11/11/mitt-romney-will-win-iowa-caucus-predicts-gop-insider.html
I tried to warn you guys, but no one listens. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/paul-moves-into-lead-in-iowa-forecast/
I would be surprised to see Gingrich come back from this. Most future predictive models show Gingrich losing more momentum than a water balloon hitting a wall. The next couple of days will be critical for the former speaker of the house.
http://news.yahoo.com/gingrich-fails-qualify-va-primary-ballot-205701830.html
More failings of Newt. Didn't even qualify to be on the Virginia primary ballot.
@ Bryan
Well I thought the same thing as you, but it appears as though we are both wrong. Who would have thought you and I could be wrong at the same time? I did think Gingrich was a good bet leading up to the caucus because of his growing support lately. Some of the things he had done just prior to the caucus could have hurt him. An example of this was when he openly cried in a coffee shop when talking about his mom (1). This may have won a few voters over, but I think that it makes him look weak. You said his charm would help to carry him through, but it might have been too much charm for some voters. Also, on January 2, 2010 he openly said that he is unlikely to win the Iowa caucus (2). I feel like to many voters this would be very discouraging, and they would not vote for him. You and I think very similarly by thinking that Romney is a contender in achieving the nomination. After winning the Iowa caucus, Romney is now being supported by other political figure heads such as John McCain (3). Romney also has the money to keep going (4). He also seems to appear as a real leader and could take on Mr. Obama if he won the nomination.
PS: Did you know Mitt Romney’s real first name is Willard? Sorry, I thought that was weird cause he doesn’t look like a Willard.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/gingrich-sheds-tears-in-a-meeting-with-iowa-mothers/?scp=7&sq=gingrich&st=cse
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/gingrich-says-he-is-unlikely-to-win-iowa-caucus/?scp=17&sq=gingrich&st=cse
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/us/politics/dueling-romney-santorum-surges-in-iowa-caucuses.html?_r=1&scp=3&sq=romney&st=cse
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/us/politics/romney-showing-financial-muscle-for-next-round.html?scp=4&sq=romney&st=cse
I’m just going to go ahead and post this here because I don’t have a better idea.
Hey Erin! I am going to go through your post chronologically and respond to things when I get to them. First of all, CLEARLY you are correct that it is anyone’s game. I think the fact that Romney, Santorum, and Paul were so close together proves that, at least according to Iowa, there are functionally three front-runners in the Republican race. (1) In fact, I would point out that there were many more counties that “went Santorum” than “went Romney”. Of course, this is because the Romney counies were the ones that were more highly populated and thus more urban. To me, this suggests that the counties that had the most support for Mitt Romney are the most representative of America, but then again, it would be silly to completely count out the socially conservative voters so early. You’re also right about the fact that if the Republicans continue to split their votes to the extent they are now, many will not find themselves with a nominee in the end that they have been supporting throughout the race. To me that suggests that they might not even vote, or would consider voting for a third-party candidate to avoid voting for Obama. Clearly, however, Newt Gingrich did not win the caucus. He ended up in 4th place with 13.3% of the vote. He was (understandably) angry about his sudden slide and lack of support when it came time for the vote. (2). The attack ads that were playing through Iowa had quite a large impact on his campaign but he plans to go on to New Hampshire and seems to still be confident. I personally do not think he will be able to overcome his poor showing in Iowa. I don’t think this is a result of anything IN the attack ads, but I believe that Republicans do not want to, and will not, get behind a sinking ship. The anti-Romney votes will consolidate somehow, but it seems to me it would be behind either the second of third place finishers of the Iowa caucus. Newt is, however, working hard to rectify his poor showing by pandering on local issues in New Hampshire. To be fair, it is really his only option at this point. (3) He has jumped right into local controversies, trying to show that he cares about their specific problems. I’m not sure how successful this will actually be, but good luck to him. Perhaps his showing in Iowa would have been more successful if ballots were contained within 160 characters. Then again, perhaps not. It seems his supporters in the polls were just as legitimate as his extensive list of twitter followers.
1. http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/data/iowa-caucus/results/
2. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/03/iowa-caucus-2012-newt-gin_n_1180904.html
3. http://blogs.reuters.com/talesfromthetrail/2012/01/05/newtie-panders-on-local-issues-in-new-hampshire/
@J.Kalk (your rapper name)
Hello, fellow Ron Paul-predictor! Your blog post was very well argued. Ron Paul actually was a close third in the race, which I would consider as a virtual win for him. It was only about four percent of a difference between Paul and Romney. As he said in his speech, “We will go on. There is nothing to be ashamed of.” [1] You were correct that Gingrich lost a lot of ground, and even Romney garnered fewer votes than previously predicted. I firmly agree with your point that Ron Paul’s firmness in his Libertarianism is both a blessing and a curse. Although Ron Paul only got third place, that is a bigger victory than many expected for this underdog Libertarian. I also agree that Ron Paul will not win the Republican nomination, but I predict he will not drop out, and continue running as a third-party candidate.
[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/us/politics/santorum-and-romney-fight-to-a-draw.html
@ Alison A.
Well, it has become apparent that Ron Paul did not win the Iowa caucus (1). You were correct about him beating Newt Gingrich, however. Gingrich finished fourth, a stark contrast to his first-place finish in the polls that you cited, and the future of his campaign has been called into question (2). This seems to have more to do with negative ads run by Mitt Romney than anything stupid Gingrich did specifically, though (3). Although Gingrich intends to continue to New Hampshire, his support there is dropping already and it seems unlikely his campaign will get much farther (2). Paul, in contrast, managed a respectable third-place finish behind Romney and Rick Santorum and is hopeful about the future of his campaign (4).
I think you’re right that Paul won’t win the nomination. As you said, his views don’t match up well enough with the rest of the Republican Party. Also, as I mentioned in my original post, Paul himself has questioned his stamina for the rest of the campaign (5). However, I do think his success in the Iowa caucus has given him the chance to possibly do well in the New Hampshire primary. Recent polls in New Hampshire show that support for Paul is increasing while support for Romney is decreasing, and Santorum is far behind them both (6). My best guess for the New Hampshire primary is that Romney will win and Paul will come in second. If things continue the way they seem to be heading, I think Romney will win the nomination and Paul and Santorum will block each other from advancing further. However, it’s very early to be making these types of predictions. I am still fairly confident that Paul will not win the national nomination, though.
1. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/04/mitt-romney-iowa-caucus-results-2012_n_1181822.html Also, class yesterday.
2. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71056.html
3. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/la-pn-gingrich-romney-liar-iowa-caucus-20120103,0,6385666.story
4. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/04/ron-paul-iowa-caucus-results-2012_n_1183062.html
5. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/14/paul-reacts-to-positive-poll-fortunes-nagging-questions-about-electability/
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