This blog is for students in Ms. Aby-Keirstead's AP US Government class in Bloomington, MN. It is for students to post their thoughts on current events and governmental affairs. Students should be respectful & think of this forum as an extension of their classroom. The instructor has the same expectations for classroom discussion & blog posts. These posts will be graded for both their academic merit & for their appropriateness.
What are President Obama's main hurdles in his reelection campaign? How do you think he could best try to overcome these hurdles? What could the Republicans do to help or hurt his campaign ambitions? Do you think trying to sabotage Obama could backfire?
posted by M Aby @ 12:37 PM
This blog is for students in Ms. Aby-Keirstead's AP US Government class in Bloomington, MN. It is for students to post their thoughts on current events and governmental affairs. Students should be respectful & think of this forum as an extension of their classroom. The instructor has the same expectations for classroom discussion & blog posts. These posts will be graded for both their academic merit & for their appropriateness.
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First, Obama has many hurdles for his election. He must overcome approval ratings around 43 percent, which is close to the lowest of his presidency. (1) Axelrod, Obama’s aide also pointed out that the declining economy would be another obvious hurdle for Obama. He also pointed out that the campaign slogan “hope and change” would be harder to swallow now for Americans, after the last 4 years politically and economically. The current political climate and his perceived lack of success and productivity is the biggest obstacle for Obama. (2)
There are ways Obama can overcome his hurdles. Having a specific economic plan (such as the jobs bill) and standing by it will be essential. He will need to give specific answers to specific questions and concerns, unlike the 2008 election. In North Carolina, he answered the question of social security by giving more income to people during working years so they can effectively save.(3) Axelrod also pointed out that the strategy to win the debate over the economy needs to be Obama’s plan vs. the Republican plan. In the contest between Obama and the economy, he definitely loses. Axelrod points out that Romney will need to explain why Massachusetts was 47th in the nation when he was the Governor. He also pointed out that Republicans could be defeated if forced to answer questions about why their supporters and constituents cheered for the death penalty or booed an openly gay soldier. (1)
Republicans could do a lot to help or hurt his campaign ambitions. To help him, they need to simply have worse policies or continue to say things that serve as effective political ammunition. If politicians like Rick Perry or Michelle Bachmann continue to things that would be seen as unreasonable or offensive, Obama will literally not need to spend any time or energy defeating them in the race and they can take themselves out. To hurt his chances, Perry could continue to say irrational things to the point where they choose Romney, a much bigger threat to Obama. (4) Appealing to Americans’ needs for a strong economic plan would be another way to hurt his campaign plans.
Negative politics always risks alienating the population and deteriorating the legitimacy of a candidate. Obama has created a website called Attack Watch to fact-check to fight the smears of his opponents. (5) They have called the website a “laughing-stock” and make comments about how Obama was “paranoid”. That, in turn, makes them look like they are unwilling to be fact-checked and seem even more questionable.
1. http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/09/obama-aide-axelrod-acknowledges-hurdles-president-election/IOwjvDnoVSoeEPD9PMug3O/index.html
2. http://www.unionleader.com/article/20110928/NEWS0605/709289977
3. http://www.wxii12.com/r/29340978/detail.html
4. http://www.economist.com/blogs/lexington/2011/09/gop-field
5. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/attack-watch-new-obama-campaign-site-to-fight-smears-becomes-laughing-stock-of-the-internet/2011/09/14/gIQAspHDSK_blog.html
Obama has several hurdles in his reelection campaign. First, he has to get past Jon Huntsman, who poses a serious threat to his presidency [1]. All kidding aside though, President Obama faces three main hurdles. First, he faces the challenge of creating jobs. Obama has recently been criticized for the very political nature of his jobs bill. Although the bill is projected by economists to help prevent another recession, it doesn’t seem to actually create much growth, which is worrisome to many voters [2]. Obama’s poll numbers have taken a hit it light of his lack of concrete jobs plan, which is also worrisome [3]. The second challenge Obama faces is the Tea Party and ideologically driven voters. The Tea Party has empirically been an important voting bloc, as witnessed in the Congressional elections of 2010. The Tea Party has taken a firm stance against Obama and are persuading voters to vote for more conservative candidates [4]. And although I don’t have a source for it, I would be willing to guess that listeners to conservative talk radio are more likely to vote, as they are more politically active than your everyday moderate voter that doesn’t care one way or another. The third obstacle to Obama’s reelection campaign is his foreign policy record. According to the most recent polling data, most American’s believe that America is losing its place as the world superpower, or hegemon [5]. Although this isn’t true, the fact that people believe it to be true will hurt Obama in his election campaign. Obama really doesn’t have a whole lot of ways to fix the economy in the next year and a month [3]. His foreign policy record will ultimately remain the same, which means that way for Obama to ensure reelection is to avoid serious gaffes, reinvigorate his base and continue to promote his jobs plan [5]. The Republicans don’t have many ways to sabotage Obama. If they stall or posture against his jobs bill they are perceived poorly by the public and will lose votes. However, they do have to distance themselves from Obama, because the Tea Party hates him. Ultimately, if the GOP candidate isn’t both radical and un-radical, they don’t have a good chance at challenging Obama. I also don’t believe that the GOP should try to undermine Obama, because it will be perceived negatively by the majority of Americans, who have backlashed against candidates like Bachmann in the polls due to her aggressive nature towards Obama [6]. Therefore, I think in the long run it is good for candidates to not oppose Obama super strongly, as it won’t get them very far in the presidential election proper.
[1] http://apusgopo.blogspot.com/2011/09/post-1-due-916.html
[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-28/obama-jobs-plan-prevents-2012-recession-in-survey-of-economists.html
[3] http://www.economist.com/node/21528624
[4] http://articles.cnn.com/2010-09-29/opinion/bunch.tea.party_1_anti-obama-christine-o-donnell-president-barack-obama?_s=PM:OPINION
[5] http://www.nationaljournal.com/whitehouse/obama-announces-reelection-bid-20110404
[6] http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
Obama faces two main hurdles in his reelection campaign: The economy and low approval ratings. The economic issues that Obama faces are numerous, but specifically Americans are looking towards him for answers to the nation’s growing unemployment rate. 6 million Americans now report being out of work for longer than 6 months, and although first time unemployment filings decreased this past week, the overall trend of increase has Americans very concerned (1). Economists predict that the number of new filings must remain below 400,000 per week in order for economic improvement to have any chance to occur. Currently, America has only had one week since August where the number has dipped past this threshold (1). Obama’s Jobs Act was recently passed, and many Americans are waiting to see how the economy responds. The Act is aimed at both slowing the rate of the newly unemployed, while also shifting the currently unemployed back into the workforce. Specifically, the Act has directed funds at preventing teachers and law enforcement from being laid off, new jobs through infrastructure projects, and incentives such as tax breaks to encourage businesses to rehire (2). The success of this plan is the largest hurdle that Obama faces in his reelection campaign, as it affects the most important concern to voters: the economy. Only after the measures of the Act are implemented will Americans and Obama be able to judge whether or not the action was adequate to overcoming the hurdle.
Obama’s low approval ratings are a worrisome sign as he heads into reelection. Over the past few weeks Americans have hovered around approval percentages in the lower 40s, far below his term average of 51% (3). In recent economic polls, Obama’s approval ratings fell from 39% to 33% (4), with such low percentages indicating a decline in even his party support. The success of the Jobs Act, again, is crucial as Obama heads into reelection. To deal with the diminishing approval ratings, Obama needs to emphasize the fact that the Jobs Act will take time to change the economy. Obama also needs to make it clear to voters that a shift to a Republican president in the midst of enacting economic policies will simply reverse any progress he has made (all Republican candidates plan to reverse at least one of Obama’s changes).
The recent GOP debates quickly evolved into attacks on Obama, as opposed to criticisms of one another. However, this tactic appears to be having a winning effect on voters: 62% say that they would definitely vote/consider Romney, and only 54% selected Obama as their top choice (5). In this state, the Republicans could increase support if they play their cards right. The best option would be to see how the Jobs Act changes the economy, and then reveal the flaws of the plan. However, many of the Republican nominees are already criticizing it. If the Jobs Act were to succeed, Obama would gain support, and the Republicans who incorrectly assumed it would fail would lose support. Obama’s approval rating has been steadily declining from week to week, and this occurs while the Republican candidates gain more support. The Republicans could hurt Obama’s campaign by simply refusing to back his legislation, and by encouraging public favor to shift towards their own candidates. The candidates should continue to point out all of Obama’s shortcomings, which I am sure they will. The Republicans could help Obama’s campaign by being too extreme in their opposing ideas (most voters would rather stay with the status quo than completely overhaul what Obama has established). Trying to sabotage Obama will likely not backfire. Even if the Jobs Act were to succeed, there will always be aspects of any plan that opposing political parties will be able to point out. Also, Republicans sabotaging Democrats is the norm in American politics, and voters are rarely responsive to things such as the Republican members of the House refusing to pass legislation out of party principal. The 2012 election is going to come down to only a few issues and economic policy will be the determining factor for many Americans.
1. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204226204576600542823828296.html
2. http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/09/08/fact-sheet-american-jobs-act
3. http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx
4. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20105949-503544.html
5. http://www.gallup.com/poll/149612/Voters-Considering-Romney-Obama-Perry.aspx
First, I think one of the biggest hurdles Obama has to get over is the fact that immediately after his reelection, him and his party were immediately set "in the cross hairs", not surprisingly, a Palin quote (1). Another obvious issue is the fact that Obama's intended healthcare reform was also passionately targeted (2) and what's worse, Republicans are now able to allegedly couple job scarcity along with Obamacare passing (3). I think to boost his chances of overcoming these issues he'll have to inspire people not unlike he did in this 2008 election video (4). In all seriousness, I think Obama is going to have to offer some serious hard evidence about some tough issues, and at this point its looking like it's going to be the economy in first place. This presents a problem for Obama, as even his own departments are expecting unemployment to be around 9% this time next year (5). One of the best possible avenues for Obama to go is to argue domestic policies other than direct economic management. One of these could be his work on education reform and fund distribution (6). An under-the-radar variable that Obama may have going for him is the Democratic losses in 2010, based on studies and trends put forth by this guy here (7), which are similar to the opposite party relations between the White House and Congress we studied in APUSH. However, these are not much to bank on, and it's unclear exactly how much Obama will be able to pull off within the next year to convince voters he's the man many thought he was in 2008.
Fortunately for him, he shouldn't have to work particularly hard to prove he's better than many of the other choices. To help his campaign ambitions, they can continue to disconnect from the majority of voters, particularly their farthest right believing candidates (8). I can't really think of anything specific they could do in order to hurt his campaign, other than coming up with a more surefire way to fix the economy than what Obama can hope for within the next year or so (not likely). As for sabotaging Obama, I believe that with essentially any kind of political sabotaging, it's a bad idea and not only can backfire, but will, as seen by Obama's rebuttal against some initial criticisms of healthcare reform here (9).
(1) http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2012-republican-presidential-hopefuls-palin-romney-refine-anti/story?id=10301918
(2) http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/04/06/pawlenty-health-care/
(3) http://nakedlaw.avvo.com/2010/09/6-big-companies-claiming-job-losses-from-obamacare/
(4) http://www.barackobama.com/news/30-reasons-to-give-29
(5) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/09/04/tough_economic_climate_as_obama_seeks_second_term_111204.html
(6) http://www.hhs.gov/news/press/2011pres/08/20110823b.html
(7) http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/obama-s-best-chances-for-re-election-171128.aspx
(8) http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/is-there-a-disconnect-between-the-tea-party-agenda-and-voter-prioritiess/
(9) http://articles.latimes.com/2010/mar/25/nation/la-na-obama-iowa26-2010mar26
President Obama currently has several factors playing against his efforts to serve another term in office. Critics cite his record in office as a key reason his efforts to be reelected will be more strenuous. Obama has been unable to resolve many of the economic issues, or any other types of issues, his campaign in 2008 promised to correct (1). Examples of failed campaign promises include, tax cuts to the retired, the closing of Guantanamo Bay, and (this one’s for you, Rutger) supporting a manned mission to the moon (2). So much of Obama’s campaigning depended on the fact that he promised change, and honestly, he didn’t. Another issue that Obama had better quickly put behind him is job creation, and currently that isn’t happening as quickly as the masses would like. To be fair, it’s not like the millions of unemployed can be given stable employment overnight, so a more gradual approach, the only possible approach by the by, is what we as a nation have to deal with. Obama is making progress in that area, just more slowly that his competitors would like (3).
I believe that he is doing the best he can in regards to economic reform. Take the New Deal for example. It was not the reason the Great Depression ended, as that esteemed honor lies in World War Two. The New Deal helped, but not immediately and it certainly did not fix the nation’s economy in the short term. Obama is dealing with similar circumstances, except the precedent for economic reform has been glorified and revered for nearly seventy years. I believe that the comparisons of the current recession to the Depression are actually hurting the efforts to fix it. The fact is, short of a massive global war against a faction similar to the Nazis, slow reform is the only way out of a recession and people don’t get that. Ultimately, it’s up to the people to reelect Obama, and that’s not possible without the understanding that reform is a slow process that cannot be rushed due to our own governmental practices. In short, it is not entirely Obama’s fault, he shares that responsibility with congress as well.
I think that Republicans could do a lot to assist Obama. Most significantly they could compromise and stop blaming him for every wrong done in the nation. Obama has been more than willing to compromise by cutting Social Security in exchange for increasing taxes on the wealthy (4). One could come to the conclusion that the Republicans are at equal fault in the slow progress made in resolving the recession because of their unwillingness to meet at common ground. From where I sit, it looks like Obama is at least trying to make change and Republicans are desperately clinging to tradition. All of this points to the fact that if Republicans were trying to sabotage Obama they would, in fact, be sabotaging the economy itself. In the end, the government needs to be able to unify to resolve the economic issues plaguing the nation. In order to do this, a compromise must be made somewhere and the massive amount of blaming that floats around Washington needs to stop (5). They all need to grow up and get along like adults and not five year olds.
1.The hurdles to an Obama-Biden re-election in 2012
http://www.mvass.com/2011/05/31/the-hurdles-to-an-obama-biden-re-election-in-2012/
2Promises, promises – which are kept, and which are not?
http://www.mvass.com/2011/03/28/promises-promises-which-are-kept-and-which-are-not/
3 Obama has big election hurdle: Americans need jobs
http://www.newhavenregister.com/articles/2011/06/05/news/doc4debbb5a7e200459924754.txt?viewmode=3
4 Who do you blame? Obama, Bush, Republicans, Democrats all in the crosshairs as debt crisis looms
http://www.scpr.org/programs/patt-morrison/2011/07/14/19883/debt-tentative
5 Google search “republicans blame Obama”, there are too many instances to bother counting or reading.
https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=republicans+blame+obama&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&safe=active#q=republicans+blame+obama&hl=en&safe=active&client=safari&rls=en&prmd=imvns&ei=GHqETvbYGumusAKMkoWfDw&start=10&sa=N&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=3c027e4add06003d&biw=1049&bih=581
With 42% of Americans strongly disapproving of the way that Barack Obama is running our country, he definitely has some major hurdles that he will have to overcome in order to have any hopes of being reelected (4). The main hurdles that he is facing are the economy and the rate of unemployment. Another roadblock would be the group of 30 Tea Party members in congress who have been shooting down any of Obama’s attempts at alleviating the afore mentioned problems. These “extreme right-wing” members of the House are putting their beliefs in front of the needs of millions of Americans (1, 2). In an effort to relieve the country’s debt crisis, Obama has tried to raise the national debt ceiling. However his attempt was “stonewalled” by these Tea Party Members (1). While it is clear that these conservatives hold a very strong stance against the President’s policies and are, by not voting anything through, hoping to make it look like Obama does not get anything done, their plan is definitely a double-edged sword. With 72% of American’s finding that it would benefit the country for Democrats and Republicans in congress to compromise, rather than sticking strictly to their beliefs, the Tea Party members are showing narcissism and little regard for the overall state of their country (5). In 2010, at a time when the national unemployment rate was 9.8%, President Obama pledged to get this rate down to a flat 9% within the next year. (7). Currently, 9.1% of Americans are unemployed which shows that the President has been successful in providing more jobs, but he still has a long way to go (6).
The best way for President Obama to promote his platform for the 2012 election is to get out of Washington and start campaigning. He needs to talk to voters so that they can judge his new policies, as opposed to basing their votes off of just what he has accomplished thus far. The Republicans have wrongfully blamed the Democrats for the country’s deficit problem, when in reality it was left behind by the Bush administration (3). However, this presents a way for the Republicans to play off of the President’s weaknesses. It is important that they be able to prove that unlike Obama, they would be able to come into office in a nation with a struggling economy, among other problems, and be able to turn it completely around.
1. http://www.mlive.com/opinion/kalamazoo/index.ssf/2011/07/tea_party_enclave_is_stonewall.html
2. http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/09/obama-may-also-run-against-the-tea-party/1
3. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20016979-503544.html
4. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presiden
tial_tracking_poll
5. http://m.ibtimes.com/congress-democrats-republicans-tea-party-budget-deficit-shutdown-debt-deal-default-220712.html
6. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
7. http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/01/obama-and-unemployment-a-fall-to-9/1
With 42% of Americans strongly disapproving of the way that Barack Obama is running our country, he definitely has some major hurdles that he will have to overcome in order to have any hopes of being reelected (4). The main hurdles that he is facing are the economy and the rate of unemployment. Another roadblock would be the group of 30 Tea Party members in congress who have been shooting down any of Obama’s attempts at alleviating the afore mentioned problems. These “extreme right-wing” members of the House are putting their beliefs in front of the needs of millions of Americans (1, 2). In an effort to relieve the country’s debt crisis, Obama has tried to raise the national debt ceiling. However his attempt was “stonewalled” by these Tea Party Members (1). While it is clear that these conservatives hold a very strong stance against the President’s policies and are, by not voting anything through, hoping to make it look like Obama does not get anything done, their plan is definitely a double-edged sword. With 72% of American’s finding that it would benefit the country for Democrats and Republicans in congress to compromise, rather than sticking strictly to their beliefs, the Tea Party members are showing narcissism and little regard for the overall state of their country (5). In 2010, at a time when the national unemployment rate was 9.8%, President Obama pledged to get this rate down to a flat 9% within the next year. (7). Currently, 9.1% of Americans are unemployed which shows that the President has been successful in providing more jobs, but he still has a long way to go (6).
The best way for President Obama to promote his platform for the 2012 election is to get out of Washington and start campaigning. He needs to talk to voters so that they can judge his new policies, as opposed to basing their votes off of just what he has accomplished thus far. The Republicans have wrongfully blamed the Democrats for the country’s deficit problem, when in reality it was left behind by the Bush administration (3). However, this presents a way for the Republicans to play off of the President’s weaknesses. It is important that they be able to prove that unlike Obama, they would be able to come into office in a nation with a struggling economy, among other problems, and be able to turn it completely around.
1. http://www.mlive.com/opinion/kalamazoo/index.ssf/2011/07/tea_party_enclave_is_stonewall.html
2. http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/09/obama-may-also-run-against-the-tea-party/1
3. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20016979-503544.html
4. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presiden
tial_tracking_poll
5. http://m.ibtimes.com/congress-democrats-republicans-tea-party-budget-deficit-shutdown-debt-deal-default-220712.html
6. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
7. http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/01/obama-and-unemployment-a-fall-to-9/1
Obama's main hurdle is obvious: the economy has not yet completely recovered from the recession, and this was the problem that he was elected to solve. While this is not necessarily his fault, and deep structural flaws in the economic system cannot be remedied quickly, most voters are responding to Republican criticism of his leadership on the issue. The criticism itself, however, has been varied and sometimes contradictory. Some have accused Obama of inaction and a failure to take initiative, while others accuse him of overstepping his bounds and turning America socialist (1). Another problem he must overcome is voter apathy. Obama energized the Democratic base and won over independent voters in 2008 with a sensational campaign focused on change. Today, the momentum that was so visible 3 years ago has greatly slowed (5). While lots of change has come, in my opinion for the better, much of his accomplishments have been accompanied by a negative publicity laser cannon barrage from the Republicans. The health care bill, debt ceiling shenanigans, and the recent unoptimistic jobs report have all been characterized in a negative light and blamed on Obama (2).
One strategy that the Republicans have tried to use in the past is stonewalling. This was seen in the health care and stimulus package debate, when they refused to compromise and did everything within their power to prevent the passage of either bill. In this case, their hope was that they would prevent the Democrats from achieving anything and summon voter anger to rise up and attack them (3). This strategy could backfire if the general public decides that the Republicans are placing partisan bickering above the welfare of the country, which so far has not been the case (as clearly seen in the 2010 elections).
I think Obama doesn’t really need to clear any of the aforementioned hurdles to gain reelection; he is currently more popular than any of the weak Republican candidates (4). He could maybe show his manly and assertive side by challenging Rick Perry to an arena sword fight to the death; a stylized image of him beheading Perry could serve as his campaign poster and would have great appeal among younger voters.
(1)http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44624291/ns/politics-white_house/
(2) http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/27/republicans-slam-president-on-jobs/
(3)http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2744848/posts
(4) http://reason.com/archives/2011/09/28/the-gop-field-is-a-gift-for-ob
(5) http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/103916788.html
Obama's hurdles start with the economy. He needs to lay out an economic plan that creates jobs and lay a foundation for a strong economy (1). He can overcome this by compromising with republicans and make a bill that most people are happy about. Another hurdle that Obama has to overcome is the Solyndra scandal. The administration rushed a bill that gave Soylndra $535 million loan and the company went bankrupt (2). Solyndra was even headed toward bankruptcy before they got the federal money (2). The company had a net loss of $172 million in 2010 (2). Obama needs to refocus on his money giving and research the companies before they hand out the money. Solyndra even applied for a grant during the Bush administration, but they were declined due to their lack of stability (2). A big hurdle that Obama faces would be the repeal of his health care bill. If it is repealed by the Supreme Court, then his numbers will for sure drop. If it isn't, then the republicans will still criticize the bill, but cannot call it unconstitutional.
Republicans can hurt Obama's reelection by using the Solyndra company to their advantage. They can make the argument that Obama doesn't have a good economic mind and invests money poorly. This will hurt him because the main issue in the election in the economy. Republicans can also hurt him by pushing the bill to the Supreme Court, and getting it overturned. I don't think the Republicans are trying to sabotage the Obama administration. I think they are stating what they see and believe. If they play their cards right, then it is very possible that the Republicans will win.
http://www.unionleader.com/article/20110928/NEWS0605/709289977
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/09/21/solyndra-obamas-first-green-bail-out/
In this coming election, Obama has the potential to be severely undermined by the prevalent voter view that he is ineffective in office (1). This seems to be the main point into which his opposition are wedging themselves, painting him as useless, despite the policies he has enacted (2). In his present situation, no matter what he has accomplished, the Public view him and his accompanying congress to be preforming worse than previous administrations (1). This is indeed a serious accusation, as the president most evident in voters mind is George Bush, and his approval rating by the end of his career had tanked much below Obama’s current position (3). Another issue which is affecting his campaign is the view, widely held in at least the left wing talk shows, that Obama is too moderate (4). Due to the popularity of Michele Bachman and Rick Perry, it seems that the American public is interested radicals, even if not to the point of election.
Perhaps the best thing that could happen for Obama’s campaign would be if Michele Bachman gained the nomination. Though many Americans seem to approve of her now, I do not think majority of the population would put their money where their mouth is. If the republicans could get their act together and consolidate their votes, they do appear in the polls to have a higher rating, which could potentially pay out (5). Obama also has the issue of attempting to reinvigorate his voters, unable to rely on his previous catchphrase, but instead needing to work hard in order to keep his base, and regain voters (6).
(1) http://www.gallup.com/poll/149765/Half-Say-President-Congress-Doing-Worse-Predecessors.aspx
(2) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/31/mitt-romney-blasts-obama-_n_868921.html
(3) http://www.gallup.com/poll/111280/Bush-Approval-Rating-Doldrums-Continue.aspx
(4) http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/26/too-moderate-or-too-modest/
(5) http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
(6) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/messina-gives-sneak-peek-at-obama-s-2012-re-election-strategy.html
"It's the economy, stupid!" With these words Clinton defeated the greatly approved-of Bush the elder, and if Obama is not very careful these are the words that will defeat him. This presidential campaign is going to be single-issue. Health care and social security may enter into people's as passing thoughts. Don't Ask Don't Tell, the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and other issues will likely not even do that much. This presidential race is going to be solely economic in nature, and this will be Obama's biggest challenge.
To overcome the challenge of the current economic status, Obama will have to stand strong. Poor economies have not proven favorable to incumbents in the past, and this will not likely change in 2012. To remain in office, Obama is going to need to continue his new line of policy and not compromise. With his recent jobs bill, Obama has been challenging the Republicans to pass his agenda(1). I believe this is a very strong move, in that the Republicans have to either let it pass, in which case the Obama administration will have accomplished something, or they can stop it, in which case they will be viewed further as a wall. Obama needs to take definitive action and have definitive policy. Vague promises won the day in 2008, but they can only lose him the 2012 election. Interestingly, Ralph Nader has suggested that Obama should face a meaningful primary to force him to articulate policy in debates (2). He says that presently Obama is on the defensive to an aggressive Republican party, but that he stands a chance of changing this by having him debate other liberals (2). This sounds like an intriguing idea to me, and I think if Obama had concrete positions that were readily identifiable by the public, it would boost his chances of success.
One more important thing that Obama must do if he hopes to get reelected: Shut Joe Biden up. In his most recent gaffe, he stated that "Republican opposition to Obama's spending plan threatens the lives of cops and firefighters."(3) Biden can singlehandedly given the Republicans enough ammunition to negate the effects of anything extremist that anyone in the Republican party might have said. If Obama wants to get reelected, Biden really, really, really needs to stop talking.
The Republicans are Obama's ally against the sad state of the economy. The only thing that is disliked more than the president these days (with 45% of those polled at least somewhat approving, and only 22% strongly approving)(4) is Congress, whom only 9%- nine!- of those polled feel is doing at least a good job.(5) The Republicans are by far the most visible people in Congress, blocking almost all of Obama's major policies until months of bickering over the niceties have been resolved. If this policy is continued, Obama will be able to attack the Republicans over the state of the economy as much or more than they attack him. The other way they can help Obama is to let Rick Perry and other extremists continue to alienate the moderates. With the moderates safely in Obama's camp, it would be distinctly possible for Obama to win the election. The way to beat Obama for the Republicans is simply to look rational and competent, and let the economy beat on Obama until they have the win. Republican sabotage is quite likely to backfire. They have a reputation as the party of "no." If they attempt sabotage, it will probably stop Obama from passing some policy, but will be viewed as another example of the Republicans stopping things without getting something else done. In conclusion, I feel Obama will have to be aggressive about the economy to win. The Republicans have the advantage, but they also have enough rope to hang themselves with. Obama's campaign stands a good chance of failing, but it's hardly a sure thing.
(1) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/28/us/politics/obama-pushes-jobs-bill-in-denver.html?ref=politics
(2)http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/sep/27/obama-democratic-primary-ralph-nader
(3)http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/29/biden-says-gop-threatens-cops-firefighters/
(4)http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
(5)http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_performance
Post 2
President Obama faces a very difficult re-election campaign in 2012. His first term has left many people dissatisfied with his accomplishments and leadership style. Recently, presidential aide David Axelrod spoke about many of the challenges confronting Obama. Axelrod cited Obama’s 43% approval rating and the difficult economic circumstances that the president and the nation are facing right now (1). The economy is named by many sources as Obama’s biggest challenge. A Bloomberg National Poll stated that the majority of Americans do not think that Obama’s plans would help decrease unemployment (2). Another major problem for President Obama is that Democrats are beginning to doubt his political capabilities, and some have even expressed the belief that Hillary Clinton would have made a better president (3). Lacking the support of his own party, it is difficult to see how Obama will overcome the other issues, such as the economy and his approval rating. The Democratic party on the whole is losing support, as seen by the loss of Anthony Weiner’s Congress seat to a Republican in a district that had not had a Republican victory since 1923 (4). Obama personally has been flippant about his reelection campaign, saying that the “campaign has not yet begun” and that “the odds of me being reelected are much higher than the odds of me being elected in the first place” (4). Although these statements were undoubtedly intended somewhat jocularly, it is clear that he will have to fight for reelection and that he will have to begin considering his strategy now.
However, I do not believe that President Obama will find reelection impossible. Axelrod also pointed out possible strategies Obama could use against his two chief rivals, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and Texas Governor Rick Perry (1). Although both Romney and Perry have challenged the president on economic grounds, Axelrod pointed out that Massachusetts did extremely poorly in job creation under Romney’s leadership and Texas currently is declining in the areas of insurance and education (1). While the Republican candidates can and have blamed Obama for problems in the national economy, he certainly has grounds to point out that they haven’t given any signs that they will be more successful. The fact also remains that the Republicans have yet to find a strong candidate to challenge Obama. They have switched from Donald Trump to Michele Bachmann to Perry to Romney, none of whom have been able to completely please all the important sectors of the Republican party (5). Obama can definitely take advantage of the lack of a strong challenger to propel himself to victory. Aside from constantly pointing out the issues with the economy, there is little the Republicans can do to sabotage his campaign if they cannot even unite their own party. Personally, I think that the most hurtful thing the Republicans could do to Obama right now would simply be to choose a candidate and fully unite behind that person.
While the accuracy of predictions in politics is questionable, it is somewhat worth noting that Allan Lichtman, a professor who developed a formula that has accurately named the victor of each presidential election since 1984, believes that Obama will win (6). There are enough variables in presidential elections that there is no real science to picking the victor, but Lichtman points out several areas in which Obama has achieved success, such as policy change, foreign and military successes, and the lack of foreign or military failures (6). While I don’t think Obama should base his entire reelection campaign on the death of Osama bin Laden, I think that reminding the voters of the successes he has had during his first term would help to counter some of the Republican points against him. The public needs to remember that Obama’s first term has not entirely been a decline for the nation.
(My citations are in the next post.)
1. http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/09/obama-aide-axelrod-acknowledges-hurdles-president-election/IOwjvDnoVSoeEPD9PMug3O/index.html
2. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/barackobama/8763496/US-elections-Barack-Obamas-re-election-prospects-hit-by-historic-loss-of-safe-New-York-seat.html
3. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-politics/8692054/Democrats-doubt-Barack-Obamas-reelection-chances.html
4. http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/09/obama-reaches-out-to-nervous-dems-puts-2012-into-perspective.php?ref=fpblg
5. http://www.examiner.com/liberal-in-orlando/with-very-weak-opponents-president-obama-s-re-election-chances-grow
6. http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30/never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012
I think the biggest problem Obama has to deal with is the loss of support from his fans. A Washington Post/ABC news poll shows that the support for Obama among black voters dropped from 86% to 58% (1). The cause of this dramatic decrease of Obama’s popularity is due to unemployment. Today’s unemployment is approaching 17% (1). I think his initiatives of Job acts and health reform don’t live up to what the people want for him. What he is doing is too slow for the people; he needs to speed up the process. Another cause of his popularity decreasing is his proposal for a deficit-reduction. Obama’s proposal would decrease deficit funding by about 3.1 trillion dollars over the coming decade (2). Reducing the deficit spending will ultimately damage our economy because deficit helps the government stimulate more growth by spending money on projects, which in turn multiply increases the initial investment “Publicly-held debt would stabilize at 74% of GDP, rather than rising to 85% and beyond. It also avoids applying the fiscal brakes immediately when doing so could tip an already feeble economy back into recession, thanks to his previously announced $447 billion in new stimulus” (2). This proves that this proposal will only hurt our economy rather than bring it out of the recession. There is a lot of critism of Obama’s proposal and I think since so many people are in favor of the deficit spending that Obama should drop the plan or promote plans that support deficit spending if he wants to regain the support of his fans.
I think the republicans don't have a chance at hurting Obama’s campaign ambitions since most people are in favor of the rich being taxed yet. I think people are losing support for Obama because they feel he is not living up to his promises and that the republicans are taking advantage of that. According to Who Wants to Tax a Millionaire? Taxing the rich would make the tax code less efficient and would raise only a little additional revenue (2). In the article, a lowered corporate rate would make it less progressive and more efficient (2). I think for now Obama is safe from the republicans because the majority would like to see the rich being taxed, but the republicans are making progress and I think eventually people are going to gravitate towards republicans if their policies progress in terms of benefiting the economy.
(1) http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/29/politics/foreman-obama-race/
(2) http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/09/budget-politics
The biggest problems that Obama will face in his reelection campaign are the current state of the economy (and his future plans) and his approval ratings. Obama is facing an abundance of economic issues, but one of the biggest topics that Americans are curious about is the President’s plan for our shocking and growing percentage of unemployed Americans. Statistics show that at least 6 million Americans are reporting that they have been unemployed for at least 6 months (1). Obama recently presented a plan to help alleviate unemployment rates (a job bill) that was harshly criticized for its decidedly political nature. Several economists have said that this bill would help our nation avoid another recession, but it lacks a plan to create more jobs, which is worrying the American people (2). There are a few ways that Obama could potentially overcome the current hurdles that have been impeding his campaign, such as having a concrete plan, like the jobs bill, and giving detailed answers to the questions that he is asked, unlike his behavior in his previous Presidential campaign. If these steps are taken, perhaps our President will raise his 43% approval rating and be another step closer to reelection (3). The Republicans have the potential to hurt the President’s campaign, they also may have the potential to help him.There are many Republican hopefuls, many who are virtually unknown and new to the national stage. The Republicans need to unite their front and get behind a popular candidate. Right now, that candidate could be Rick Perry or Mitt Romney. If this doesn’t happen soon, the Republicans will be hurting themselves and helping Obama’s chances In my opinion, I currently feel that Romney would be a bigger threat to Obama’s campaign than Perry (4) I am not aware of any solid plan that could be put into action to sabotage Obama’s campaign. If they could fix the economy before the election, maybe that Republicans could make sure that Obama’s reelection was not a possibility, but that is hardly feasible.
1.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204226
2. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-28/obama-jobs-plan-prevents-2012-recession-in-survey-of-economists.html
http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/09/obama-aide-axelrod-acknowledges-hurdles-president-election/IOwjvDnoVSoeEPD9PMug3O/index.html
3.http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/09/obama-aide-axelrod-acknowledges-hurdles-president-election/IOwjvDnoVSoeEPD9PMug3O/index.html
4.http://www.economist.com/blogs/lexington/2011/09/gop-field
President Obama has done a fairly good job as president for the last two and a half years. While he has struggled with some issues, he has certainly not done a poor job as president. However, he does face several serious threats to his re-election campaign. The first is waning support in demographics he previously dominated. In the 2008 election, Obama drew in youth voters who may not have voted in an average election. Obama received 68% of votes from voters aged 18 to 29 [1]. Due to various factors, including high unemployment among young people, has hurt Obama’s approval ratings with young voters. MTV, which has previously been a great aid for some campaigns, has refused to be involved in this election. Union workers, who have historically showed overwhelming support for the Democrats and specifically Obama, have turned on him. The president of the AFL-CIO, Richard Trumka, issued a threat to the Democrats on May 20: “you can be a friend and make a mistake once in awhile. And we can forgive you for that mistake. The difference is this: that we’re not going to spend precious resources helping candidates that don’t stand up and help us.” He later said “I have a message for some of our ‘friends.’ For too long, we have been left after Election Day holding a canceled check, waving it about [and saying,] ‘Remember us? Remember us? Remember us?’ - asking someone to pay a little attention to us. Well, I don’t know about you, but I’ve had a snootful of that s***” [2].
Obama’s campaign recognizes these barriers, and is working to overcome them. He is being rebranded as a problem solver who will overlook party ideologies to fix things. They are also working to show the contrast between the extremism of the Republican candidates and Obama, and brand him as a reasonable candidate who will get things done [3]. The campaign also launched a website called “AttackWatch.com” where voters can file false accusations made about Obama’s record so the public can see all the misinformation. However, it is already rallying many Republican voters against it [4].
Some actions that the Republican candidates are taking actually help President Obama’s re-election campaign. A major aid to Obama is the extremism of the major Republican candidates. Even Karl Rove, a fairly extreme Republican, warned Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Michele Bachmann (the major candidates) that if they continue to maintain their current extreme views, they will drive voters to Obama [5].
However, the Republicans do have advantages over Obama in the campaign.
Since Obama has already been in office, the Republicans can blame him for everything wrong with the country. Obama has tried to defend himself by reminding the public that the uncooperative Congress makes it difficult for him to do anything, but this simply backfires and makes voters think he is blaming others for his problems [6].
I think that trying to sabotage Obama’s campaign could easily backfire, but hasn’t really yet. If the Republicans’ attacks cross a certain imperceptible line, public opinion could turn to view the Republicans as reactionary extremists, and Obama as a moderate, reasonable victim. But it is anyone’s guess as to whether or not this line will actually be crossed during this election.
[1] http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27525497/ns/politics-decision_08/t/youth-vote-may-have-been-key-obamas-win/#.ToSHFWAQ95g
[2] http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/9183-mtv-wont-help-obamas-reelection-campaign
[3] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/us/politics/07campaign.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2&sq=obama%20campaign&st=cse&scp=3
[4] http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/14/obama-campaign-launches-attackwatch-com/?scp=2&sq=obama%20campaign&st=cse
[5] http://gawker.com/5831081/karl-rove-suddenly-fears-extreme-gop-candidates
[6] http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/278069/obama-lies-about-do-nothing-congress-deroy-murdock
Obama currently faces many hurdles in his campaign. One significant block is his approval ratings. Currently, according to the Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, there is a 42% strong disapproval rating, and 53% total disapproval (1). His ratings have only been decreasing, so it is imperative that his next actions be careful and ultimately successful. One such example is the American Jobs Act (2). Personally, I think Obama’s presentation of the Act and what it contains is a step in the direction of getting over this low ratings hurdle. Obama needs something like this to obviously work well now, relatively close to the election, in order to rally more support. Regarding the Act, he stated “there is nothing controversial about this piece of legislation,” and went on to explain that it is in the kind of bill that will be supported by both parties, and everything will be paid for. Currently, it is too early to see exactly how it would play out in terms of the economy, one of the other major hurdles Obama faces. Obama’s administration isn’t necessarily to blame for the recession, but is responsible, especially with prospect of re-election, of remedying the problem. The economic situation is the most important issue facing the nation right now, so it is not only a hurdle, but a staggering one. Another major hurdle that Obama is facing right now is the Tea Party and its voters. The Tea Party has been shooting down any and everything proposed by Obama basically with no regard to its content. Their ideologies override their sensibility in voting, as their ultimate goal is to ensure that Obama is a one-term president. When President Obama tried to raise the debt ceiling, in efforts to help alleviate some of the debt crisis, it was shot down by the party (3). This may be hurting his ambitions as current president, but it is not so much hurting his campaign ambitions. The Tea Party is starting to really annoy voters, as they see its influence over the GOP leadership, and are ultimately frustrated in its blockages and actions (4). This can be seen as a help by the Republicans to his campaign ambitions. Huffington Post puts it very well in saying that “having a commonly accepted enemy to fight against can be a very powerful tool in motivating voters.” It cited this same situation as when Obama used growing dislike for Bush to his advantage in his 2008 campaign. This brings me to my conclusion in how Obama can actually win the election. He has a good chance, as there is not huge support or approval of any one Republican candidate. Obama’s refreshing 2008 campaign and simple yet effective promise for change were extreme factors in his winning of the election. If Obama actually starts doing more campaigning like this, I think he has a good chance of making it as a two-term president, contrary to what the Tea Party would like to believe.
(1) http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
(2) http://articles.cnn.com/2011-09-08/politics/obama.jobs.plan_1_president-obama-deficit-reduction-political-circus?_s=PM:POLITICS
(3) http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60449.html
(4)http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-smirniotopoulos/malice-in-wonderland_b_987558.html
It’s clear that Obama is facing many challenges in his upcoming reelection campaign. According to a recent Gallup poll, 53% of Americans blame Obama to some degree for the current state of the economy [1]. As the incumbent, Obama will have to prove to American public that he can still make the “change” he promised during his first election campaign. Perhaps that’s why he proposed his “American Job’s Act”—to propose what looks like a bipartisan piece of legislation, to prove he can accomplish something everyone wants while in office. The act accomplishes a tricky piece of political strategy as well—it serves as debate fodder for Obama should congress fail to pass the act [2]. If the act doesn’t pass, Obama has set the stage to be able to say: “Hey! I tried. Its not my fault, point those fingers at congress instead.”
To survive in a modern election, a candidate must have a lot of money. Historically, candidates have created fundraisers geared toward Wall Street millionaires, a very significant way to finance advertising. In 2008, Obama was able to raise $43 million from Wall Street [3]. However, once he got into office, he bit the hand that fed him, and spoke out against them, and even made a reference to “fat cat bankers”—an insult not easily forgotten [3]. Its not surprising, then, that Obama is having trouble securing donations from this wealthy class of elite. Clearly, funding will be another challenge for Obama.
Also, the Obama campaign is pushing for “an expedited U.S. Supreme Court review of its health care law” [4]. Wow! It is definitely a risky maneuver, but if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the law, it will be a major plus for the Obama campaign.
Even in light of all these hurdles, I believe that Obama will overcome and win the 2012 election. He is a very persuasive speaker, and I think that the public will realize that Obama is the best candidate, as he has proved his leadership again and again.
I think that his republican opponents level charge after charge at him, but inevitably make very public mistakes themselves, taking away from the validity of their attacks. I think that attacking Obama will backfire, as the public realizes that the candidates propose very few concrete plans for fixing our nation.
[4] http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/risk-reward-in-obama-health-care-law-appeal-to-supreme-court/
[3] http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-obama-wall-street-20110930,0,6677823.story
[1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/blaming-obama/2011/09/21/gIQAU6MPnK_blog.html
[2] http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/09/obamas-jobs-speech
Despite my great bias towards President Obama, I acknowledge he still has much to overcome in his reelection campaign. Currently in America, there is a 9% unemployment rate, it has been nine years since America invaded Iraq and we are still not out of war, and the economic crisis has not yet been resolved [1,2]. In addition, President Obama’s present job approval rating is at 40% [3]. The most precedent hurdles Obama needs to face in the upcoming reelection campaign are the unemployment and the federal economy. First off, this is the longest amount of time for elevated unemployment since 1984 [4]. CNN Money predicts there is a large chance for America’s economy to suffer from a second recession due to this high unemployment [5]. To make matters worse, Congress has been at a deadlock since January in deciding how to fix our current economic crisis [6]. They have passed few laws and the Democratic and Republican parties can not come to an agreement on how to fix this economic crisis [6]. I believe that Obama has done many things to jump these hurdles and help boost the economy, but it takes time to see their full effects. Just recently, he has just come up with the new job bill, the American Jobs Act [7]. It’s goals are to reduce the unemployment rate and strength the economy [7]. The proposed bill includes items such as cutting payroll taxes, the creation of job counseling programs, and investing money in the infrastructure [8]. By implementing bill and programs to resolve the poor economy, Obama can try to restore faith and hope in Americans. The most important thing for Obama to focus on is getting the bills passed in Congress. This is the largest hurdle he is facing because the Republican parties are blocking the majority of his proposed bills [7].
The Republicans could greatly hurt Obama’s campaign by continuing their deadlock in Congress. If nothing is able to pass, the Republicans can show how Obama is not being productive enough to help the economy and unemployment. From here, they could try to save the day with their new so called brilliant plans for how to fix this crisis. Currently, Republicans are hurting Obama’s campaign ambitions by stating their “frustration with the whole affair” [9]. Additionally, Republicans have been accusing Obama for displacing the blame of the present economic state on the GOP [9]. Their refusal to accept Obama’s plans is hurting his reputation because it feels like nothing is getting done. I believe trying to sabotage Obama could backfire and destroy the Republican’s own candidates for the presidential race. After a while, people are just going to get fed up with the Republicans and Democrats fighting. They might decide to chose a completely random and unusual choice for president. This isn’t the first time this has happened in government. For instance, the wrestler Jesse Ventura, a very unlikely candidate, became Minnesota governor in 1998 because there was a “overwhelming sense of dissatisfaction” with the other candidates [10]. Minnesotans became tired of the Democratic and Republican Representatives from their constant criticism of the other party. There is still a long road before the final 2012 presidential elections and currently there is now outstanding candidate [1].
[1]http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2011/09/16/140536569/obama-higher-odds-of-re-election-than-initial-election
[2]http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2003/iraq/
[3]http://www.gallup.com/poll/149114/Obama-Close-Race-Against-Romney-Perry-Bachmann-Paul.aspx
[4]http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_25/b4233053223432.htm
[5] http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/02/news/economy/jobs_double_dip_recession/?iid=EL
[6]http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/08/news/economy/congress_gridlock_tax/index.htm
[7] http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20103989-503544.html
[8] http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/09/08/fact-sheet-american-jobs-act
[9]http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/08/obamas-goal-getting-jobs-putting-gop-on-spot/
[10]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/keyraces98/stories/ventura110498.htm
There are multiple obstacles that President Obama must overcome in his reelection campaign. Two of these hurdles are the economy (more specifically, the unemployment rate) and his approval ratings.
According to a CBS News/New York poll, 72% of Americans believe that America is heading in the wrong direction. President Obama’s approval ratings have also dropped to 43%, which is the lowest rating that he has received throughout the duration of his presidency [1]. Much of the support that he lost was from women and white voters [2]. This poses quite a problem for the President, because he is facing some unsatisfied customers.
As these hurdles line up for Obama, there are a couple things that he can do to eliminate them as soon as possible. The main thing that Obama should focus on is continuing to create relief for the economy. This is one of the biggest issues that Americans are concerned with [3], so by showing that he has his attention focused on their interests, he can also regain some approval. A specific economic issue that worries many Americans is the unemployment rate [4], which is now sitting at 9.1% [6]. This is because it affects them and people around them every day. As a Huffington Post article states, if Americans continue to be put out of their jobs, 2012 will have the highest unemployment rate in any election since 1940 [2]. By creating jobs, and therefore decreasing the unemployment rate, Obama could jump both of his hurdles at once.
Obama’s 2008 election theme ‘Change’ was very accurate. Many changes have been made for the better, but some people disagree (mainly the Republican Party). Their opposition to Obama is constant, and constantly unproductive. By attacking all of his ideas and strategies, they are obstructing any progress toward solving the nation’s problems. As they continually sabotage Obama’s efforts, they decrease the effectiveness of the executive branch because they only hurt the cause. His strategies are constantly being attacked and shot down before they can even be tested. For example, before President Obama had formally proposed his plan to decrease the deficit, Republicans were already shooting it down [5]. They called it ‘class welfare’, and they didn’t think that it would be completely effective. If Republicans attack Obama’s every effort, then nothing can be done to improve the situation. As a result, the Republican Party’s credibility is lost because it is seen as a destructive political force rather than a constructive force. This will show Americans that Republicans are worried solely on putting Obama down, rather than the welfare of America. It is very likely that this will backfire, and only make the 2012 election easier for Obama to win, because the Republicans will have lost votes.
Even so, I think that Obama will have to work very hard in order to win the election. He has two main hurdles that he must overcome. First, he must prove to voters that he can improve the economy. Second, his approval ratings must go up in order for him to win. Without voter approval, there is obviously no way that he could win.
1. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20107584-503544.html
2. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/04/obama-economy-2012-campaign_n_948316.html
3. http://www.gallup.com/poll/146708/americans-worries-economy-budget-top-issues.aspx
4. http://www.cnbc.com/id/44591425/Worry_About_a_New_Wave_of_Layoffs
5. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20108167-503544.html
6. http://www.bls.gov/cps/
Personally, I don’t think that Obama faces any hurdles and is a shoe-in to be re-elected for president (just kidding). Now let’s be honest, President Barack Obama’s road to re-election in 2012 will not be an easy one. He faces many hurdles that could severely hurt his chances for re-election, but that’s not to say that it isn’t possible for him to defeat his opponents. First, President Obama must change his image and overcome low approval ratings. Obama is not the same person that America fell in love with in the 2008 election [1], and in order to win he must regain this image. This fact is shown in his approval rating which is quite low at a mere 41% [2]. In order to win, these two things must change. As of lately, President Obama has been showing hints of his old self by being more fiery and passionate, and forceful against his opponents. This is the type of President that people want to rally behind, not one who succumbs to his circumstances. If he continues to inhabit these characteristics, President Obama will give himself a better chance in the election. Second, Obama must start doing something to change the economy. Vice President Joe Biden said in an interview on Thursday that “the Obama administration-not the Bush administration- now has ownership of the struggling U.S. economy [3]. Obama was elected into office to help deal with the recession plaguing the nation, and while he has made attempts to help it, the effects have been quite futile. To elaborate on the current economic woes, one must not that the unemployment rate in August hit 9.1%, which is not likely to drip soon, and a job approval rating of only 40% [4]. President Obama must take ownership for his inability to change the economy around thus far, and then simply proceed forward. His current jobs plan has gotten much attention and is garnishing much support. A recent Gallup poll has shown that 65% of American people think that this plan will help a little or a lot [4]. If the proposed jobs plan continues to make its way through the government levels, this will significantly help Obama’s campaign for the upcoming election. Obama is working to help the people of the nation, but change isn’t coming in the way that many expected it to. These two reasons are what I consider to be the biggest hurdles that President Obama must face in his campaign for re-election in 2012. As of now, 77% of people say that the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction [4], so c’mon Obama give us some “change we can believe in.”
Obviously, the Republican candidates can do many things to either help or hurt Barack Obama’s chances for re-election. To help Obama’s campaign, the Republicans can keep on making headlines with their insane and controversial comments. Their say-whatever’s-on-my-mind tendencies aren’t flattering, and as president could put the nation in a heap of trouble. Also, voters are demanding specifics and aren’t interested in someone who can just attack Obama and offer vague solutions, but someone who has concrete ideas that will actually be beneficial to the nation [5]. In addition, not being willing to compromise can cause serious dilemmas for these candidates. Obama has often been willing to compromise in the past, but not Republicans. A majority of Americans want political leaders to compromise in order to help the nation, rather than stubbornly sticking to their beliefs [6]. Simply, just agree to disagree and then agree to compromise. Now onto things that Republicans can do to hurt Obama’s campaign. The Republicans can continue to use Obama as a unifying force for the party, because they’re determined to beat Obama and make him a one-term president [5]. Also, to put Mitt Romney against President Obama in the race, he would be the biggest challenge to the president for they’re very close in poll numbers [4]. As far as sabotaging Obama, that would be the biggest mistake that the Republican Party could make. No one wins in this situation, and it would shed negative light on both parties making voters hesitant to elect either. Mudslinging is always part of politics, but to bring it to the level of sabotage would be unacceptable. There are many hurdles that each candidate and party face, and it will definitely be interesting to see who will win in the 2012 presidential election.
Sources:
[1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/obama-to-democrats-get-pumped-up/2011/09/26/gIQALaBAzK_blog.html
[2] http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx
[3] http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20113398-503544.html
[4] http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/is-obama-an-underdog-in-2012/2011/09/20/gIQAXBvbkK_blog.html
[5] http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/10-things-we-learned-at-presidency-5-about-the-republican-presidential/1193568
[6] http://www.gallup.com/poll/149699/Americans-Again-Call-for-Compromise-Washington.aspx
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Obama has many hurdles to his reelection campaign. First and foremost, is the perceived lack of progress in the economy (1). While Obama didn’t create this mess, he hasn’t fixed it either, mainly due to the political stifling carried out by the Right. Obama counted on some sort of compromise by the Republicans, foolishly assuming the Right would sacrifice personal goals for the good of the country (2). Instead, they blocked him at every turn. The Healthcare bill, the stimulus package, even the manufactured crisis of the debt ceiling. However, he has recently shown another side of himself, an “assertive, scrappy” (1) side, which will help immensely in restoring his public image as someone who can get things done. Only time will tell if this new attitude has come too late, where he has already lost the trust of the American People.
The main thing the Republicans can do to help Obama’s campaign is drag their nomination out as long as possible. This exposes and highlights the flaws of the leading candidates, before they even get to the presidential stage. While Romney is the most formidable and likely candidate, I hope to God that Rick Perry gains the nomination. He is a bumbling idiot, with an even worse campaign, and will be torn apart by Obama (3) However, if Romney gains the nomination, the situation becomes much more dire. He is an actual candidate, one with a chance to beat Obama.
Attacking Obama has upsides and downsides. The upside for the Republicans is that there has not been much identifiable progress. The now-infamous Labor Day jobs report has been trumpeted by the Republicans as proof of his failure (2). However, all Obama has to do is paint the republicans as “disrespectful” (2). They have constantly attacking Obama and his policies, without any way for Obama to respond. Once the campaign actually starts, Obama will be able to effectively respond, and prove the republican’s arguments fruitless. Another downside of attacking Obama is the changing electorate. Because of his race and stance on minority and poverty-related issues, Obama is able to reach demographics Clinton wasn’t able to touch with a ten foot pole (4). States like North Carolina or Colorado, traditionally Republican strongholds, are now hotly contested. If the republicans attempt to sabotage Obama’s campaign, some independents may be turned off, and give their vote to Obama (4).
Sources:
1. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/us/politics/11obama.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=obama%20reelection&st=cse
2. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/opinion/dowd-one-and-done.html?scp=6&sq=obama%20reelection&st=cse
3. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/29/1021447/-Will-contradictory-testimony-by-Rick-Perrys-aides-hurt-his-campaign?via=search
4. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/30/us/politics/obama-sees-a-path-to-12-victory-beyond-the-rust-belt.html?scp=5&sq=obama%20reelection&st=cse
Both low approval ratings and the economy are most definitely hurtles for Obama this election. Low approval ratings are a direct way for us to see what the American people think of president Obama. The election is still about a year away and there is no specific candidate to run against Obama. The low approval rating this far from the election isn't an imitate danger and is definitely a hurtle that can be crossed. Obama's approval is just under 50 percent now and the closer the election gets the higher it will become, because Obama will start campaigning more actively and stop proposing ideas that some may view as radical. Approval ratings are a hurtle that wont be difficult to cross but a hurtle that will be is the economy. Obama took office in 2008 when the economy was at its worse. The fact that he has tried many ways to stimulate the economy and it has not gotten much better may by a serious hurtle to overcome. Although many of the programs Obama started did help the economy none of them were the be all to end all that brought us out of the recession. The economic problem that the nation is facing is very complex and the republicans will try to sabotage Obama by proposing plans that differ drastically from his. This could either help or hurt them depending on the plan. The hurtle of the economy is one that is early to call.
President Obama has a few major hurdles that could impede his chances of being re-elected as President in 2012. The main hurdles are the economic recession (job creation) and the decline in his approval ratings. In Obama’s campaign in 2008, he promised many different ways of helping the economy to get out of recession. (1) He had promised to create many new jobs through doubling federal funding for research, expanding federal plans for creating jobs, as well as creating new federal plans for job creation. (1) When Obama’s term as president started the national unemployment rate was at 5%, and currently it has risen to 9.1%. (2) States such as California and Nevada has alarming unemployment rates of 12.1% and 13.4 %, respectively, whereas North Dakota’s unemployment rate has dropped down to 3.5%. (3) The American Jobs Act is one way that Obama has been trying to overcome the current unemployment rates. The Act should help small business, and entrepreneurs in being able to build their companies, and then hire more employees. (5.)
The other important hurdle is Obama’s recent decrease in approval ratings. Obama currently has only a 39% approval rating, showing that the majority of American citizens are not in favor of his programs, and would most likely agree that the unemployment is a rather large hurdle for Obama to overcome in the upcoming election. (4) This is a drop of 29% approval rating from January 2009, when his term started. In order for Obama to overcome this dilemma, he would need to instill the same hope and faith of himself in the American people’s minds. Republican’s could exploit these weaknesses to try and get ahead of Obama in the polls, and eventually win the Presidency, but this tactic could easily backfire on the Republicans if Obama decides to do the same thing.
1. http://usliberals.about.com/od/theeconomyjobs/a/ObamaEcon.htm
2. http://www.miseryindex.us/urbymonth.asp?StartYear=2008-01&EndYear=2011-08&submit1=Create+Report
3. http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&tdim=true&fdim_y=seasonality:S&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+rates#ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=state&idim=state:ST320000:ST060000&ifdim=state&tdim=true&hl=en&dl=en
4. http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx
5. http://moneyland.time.com/2011/09/12/the-most-overlooked-and-important-proposal-in-obamas-jobs-plan/
Obama does have many hurdles he must over come for his election. The main hurdle would be his uninspiring poll ratings. Currently his approval rating is at a -22, and 43% strongly disapprove of how he is performing (1). This is a place where the republicans are sure to uses against Obama. Rick Perry is doing this and it has helped him to reach the top of the republican vote (2). Another hurdle Obama will have to over come is actually his campaign promises of hope and change. Many people don't believe he has delivered in this aspect. (3) An example of Obama not delivering in his promise of change is that he only makes statements on things that about 50% that of the nation already agree with. Republicans have used Obama’s apparent lack of plan as grounds for showing off their own. Paul Ryan is just a congressman from Wisconsin but he has listed how he thinks is wrong with the government spending and how he thinks it should be fixed (4). Still Obama can come back from these hurdles. First of all it is unlikely he will not win the nomination from the democrats, as that would show that the democrats have lost faith in Obama. Once Obama wins the nomination the race will turn into Obama verses the republicans. Obama has been preparing for this as he often says he is willing to compromise with the republicans (5). While the republicans often unwillingness to compromise adds to the reason why many see the republicans as a non-cooperative political group (5/6).
1. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
2. http://www.economist.com/blogs/lexington/2011/09/gop-field
3. http://firedoglake.com/2011/08/09/obamas-tipping-point/
4. http://www.npr.org/2011/01/26/133227396/transcript-gop-response-from-rep-paul-ryan
5. http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-12-08-deal08_ST_N.htm
6. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2011/0730/Debt-ceiling-crisis-Why-won-t-Republicans-compromise
I think one of Obama's main hurdles this campaign will be how we will explain the big talk he had his last campaign, less than great results he had attained. 1. While it is perfectly understandable for some that the divided congress he had prevented a large amount of his reforms, the mass population voted for him because they expected all the plans he was promising. The Republican party could really hurt him by bringing up every incomplete campaign promise, when he makes new ones. Obama's method to escape this issue and come out on top would be to blame republican congress leaders, which could get them out of office when their election comes as they will look they stopped the plans that they had voted for. Obama's image of hope and change and promising things only three steps short of miracles makes him look unsuccessful, which i feel will be brought up.
Also, like any campaign, hypocrisy and "flip-floppng" will be brought up. Obama ran with a no back room legislation promise, saying that he wanted a more open government, and then he condemns wiki leaks for making government papers open: Obama on wikileaks. While classified papers could be linked to security, I feel someone who truly wanted an open government would not be hiding the papers detailing military action on the scale of standing operations orders not patrol routes. If the Republicans try to sabotage him on this point, I feel it will be very hard for any of them to say that they would not condemn wikileaks, but they flip flopping point will still stand.
The third and final point, which cpuld be especially volatile, is corporations. The more liberal part of the left could be seen to leave Obama, because of his thoughts on corporations. If Obama should condemn corporations he will lose quite a bit of money:Campaign Donors. But if he doesnt bring up something about the corporations, the people protesting them would feel alienated and that he had not been listening.
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