Respond to post #1
Please pick a classmate to respond to off the Post 1 thread. Be sure to include new sources in your response agreeing or disagreeing with your classmate. You should have at least 1 source in your post. You are also encouraged to check out the sources that they used to see if you agree with them.
Be sure to be clear about WHO you are responding to and to what points in their post you are responding to.
Please respond by Friday, 9/21 by the end of the day.
Labels: midterm elections
posted by Ms. Aby @ 6:06 AM
18 Comments:
I agree with Ulyses's stance on the fact that the Democrats will Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. When he said that voters are more likely to vote for candidates against President Trump, I verified that information and found that Democrats are likely to win Congress based on poll numbers taken since President Trump took office (1). As of September 17th, President Trump had a disapproval rating of 53.7% and a mere 40.1% approval rating (2). As a result of this, voters will tend to lean toward the opposing party so that will lead to the Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress.
(1) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/
(2) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
I respectfully disagree with Nico because I believe that the Democrats will win both houses of Congress for the 2018 Midterm Election. Based on this CNBC article, rallied college educated women favored Republicans in the past, but they are favoring the Democrats now. More rich people are starting to dislike President Trump. President Trump has made many promises to the people of the country, but he hasn't really followed through with those promises. Another thing that stood out was when Warran said, "He delivered huge tax cuts to billionaires, he has helped deregulate for big corporations. He has made it easy for the rich and the powerful to get richer and more powerful". All of these factors has gotten the Republicans worried, worried that they will lose their seats and overall lose the election.
1) https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/three-factors-determine-whether-democrats-retake-congress-in-midterms.html
I agree with Roberts stance on the midterms because many issues show this to be the case. A man point that he uses is Minnesota's liberal prominence in the U.S, which is a great factor which could sway the House of Representatives. Also, the elections in Alabama with Doug Jones pulling the upset, foreshadow the lasting spread the Democrats are starting to have in politics. Also, Robert addresses Trumps negative influence in the midterms, many news stations including CNN (1) have shown this to be true in terms of the midterm. Despite this, I think Robert could have used more evidence to back up his main argument. But overall, his message on Democrats narrowly winning due to negative Trump influence and the key states in the midterms looking left leaning.
Source 1: https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/22/opinions/cohen-manafort-trump-and-midterms-opinion-intl/index.html
I partially agree with Nico. Based on recent news articles it seems that the House of Representatives will be under Democratic rule while the senate will be under Republican rule(1). The senate is looking like it will be under Republican control because "This year, the Republican Party is seen to have a better electoral map overall as far as the Senate goes because they are defending fewer seats"(1) While in the House of Representatives "The Democrats appear to hold a solid lead. An average of the results compiled by Real Clear Politics indicates the party leads by 6.8 per cent of the vote among Democrats". Based on these statements I believe that the senate will be under Republican control while the House of Representatives will be under Democratic control.
1: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/2018-midterm-predictions-elections-races-to-watch-vote-map-senate-key-seats-a8500316.html
I agree with Vince's stance whether the Democrats or the Republican will win. The votes can go either way and we wouldn't know. With all the prediction and the confidence that the Democrats will be taking the House, an unexpected turn has taken place. In Georgia, where they just had the special House election, revealed that the Republicans took the votes (1). "Democrats have also fallen short in several special elections that were teed up as the kind of race they would need to win to take back the House majority." According to this article, this article explains that the Democrats are falling behind within the special House election. With this event, this event is going against all the the people who predicted that the Democrats would win, and also this event clearly shows that the votes can go either way. As people believe that the Democrats have done things to be higher than the Republicans which would lead to their success in the votes, that is not the case within the Georgia special House election. (1) "... Democrats outperformed the district’s partisan lean and its Republican voting history but still couldn’t find quite enough votes to win." Overall, the votes can go either way.
1. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/19/17854966/2018-midterm-elections-predictions-special-elections
With all do respect, I disagree with Denley because I believe Erik Paulsen will retain his seat in the house. Firstly, he will retain his spot in the house because he is an incumbent. Secondly, according to the Star Tribune (1) Paulsen is focusing on the time that he has worked with the Democrats to get stuff done in D.C. which in turn is pleasing voters.
Sources:
(1): http://www.startribune.com/rep-erik-paulsen-and-dean-phillips-face-off-in-first-debate-for-congressional-seat/491376221/
I agree with Kimee in that Democrats will most likely take back the house. Due to Trump's historically low approval rating and the Republican parties unpopularity at the moment. More Republicans than before are giving up their seats, a lot of those seats being given up were historically Republican places but voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election showing that they already had a strong dislike to Donald Trump (1). With a Democratic take over of the house there comes the likelihood of an impeachment and blocking of more conservative policies which may bring in more voters, who generally don't show up for midterm elections.
1.https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/12/politics/republicans-2018-midterm-elections/index.html
With all due respect and love for my boy Nico, I disagree.
According to (1)CNBC (Consumer News and Business Channel) many political science experts concur that though the Republican party has a chance, though it is incredibly slim. The Democratic party has more popularity in this day and age,(1)"The vast majority of lawmakers and strategists from both major parties believe Democrats will at least pick up a chunk of Republican House seats in November or take a majority in the chamber. Democrats' high hopes are tied to relatively poor approval ratings for Trump and his major policy initiatives, as well as historical struggles for a president's party in midterm years."
With that in mind, no hard feelings bud...
Source:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/19/trump-boasts-about-republican-chances-in-2018-midterm-elections.html
I agree with Katherine's statement. I believe that there is factual evidence that she has to back up her prediction. For instance, Katherine stated that "Minnesota's 1st district will most likely be own by Democrat Dan Feehan, due to his service in both the army and the community. Feehan wants to work towards cheaper health care and treatment for prescription drug abuse (2), both of which are gaining a lot of popularity in this country," She was able to show an example of her reason, but also further analyze her statement. Also to note, Democrats are all about the people staying healthy. If there wasn't anyone rooting for people who supported health, then no one would be able to stay healthy in the long run.
I agree with Denley and I do think that Dean Phillips has a very good chance of winning the 3rd District seat against Erik Paulsen. Like Denley said, Paulsen has historically sided with Trump on 98 percent of issues. This is important to note because a recent poll shows that Trump's approval rate has dropped to only 38% in Minnesota's metropolitan counties, which are included in the 3rd district (1). Also, Phillips is a very big advocate for taking money out of politics and for "shunning and returning contributions from PAC's, lobbyists, and members of Congress" (2). However, Paulsen is ranked 6th in the house for receiving donations from PAC's with over $2 million. These beliefs set the two candidates apart the most and will most likely be a deciding factor in who the voters choose in November. Overall, this will be a very close race as Paulsen is a long time incumbent and both candidates are running their campaigns in different ways.
Sources:
1: http://www.startribune.com/trump-approval-falls-in-new-minnesota-poll/493794201/
2: https://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2018/08/most-politicians-try-be-everyone-s-friend-dean-phillips-trying-very-very-har/
I disagree with Nico because I believe the democrats are going to swing back in MN. Paulsen has been in office since 2008 and lately there has been conflicts with him and trump about trading. Which he’s tried to distance himself from it but that’s something that people won’t just forget. The democrats have Dean Phillips trying to take his spot and people in MN are really getting behind him. Dean Phillips believes that healthcare is a moral right. Paulsen votes to appeal and replace the affordable care act which helped out Minnesotan citizens in particular a lot. He is also someone who is in favor or the G.O.P tax bill. This is why I think that the Democrats are going to take these votes in MN because I think people are ready for change.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-mn03-1.html
This is Robert
I agree with Robert that the Democrats will be victorious in the upcoming midterm elections, with the main point that Trump himself has hurt the name of the republican party but along with the fact that so many Republicans holding seats have retired, so can come a new age of perhaps a younger majority of Democratic candidates to be a listening ear of millenials that are soon gaining the ability to vote.
I also agree that in Minnesota, there will be a huge democratic vote for the midterm elections, considering just today I got a flyer advertising Michael Howard running for State Representative, and with the fact that during the state fair there were a lot of campaigns going on for mainly democratic candidates.
In all the win for democrats to take control of the House and Senate will prove a huge overhaul to the policies laid down by Trump.
Sources: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44314914
I agree with Emma that the Democrats will win majority in Congress. I confirmed her source and found that it is true that data shows that the Democrats are likely to win majority. One of the reasons that has influenced this data is Trump. “Historically the sitting president's party tends to lose seats in congressional midterm elections and some analysts believe Mr Trump's low national approval rating will impact upon Republican candidates” (1). Trump is a huge reason why the Democrats have a chance of winning majority in congress. These reasons are why Democrats have an 80% chance of winning majority. Overall, I agree that data leans toward the Democrats and have found one of the reasons why this has happened.
Sources:
1)https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/midterms-2018-elections-trump-republicans-blue-wave-midwest-michigan-wisconsin-minnesota-a8535501.html
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I agree with Nina that Democrats will will the midterms elections, although the Republicans will still put up a good fight. She brings up good points that there's an 80% chance that Democrats will gain control of the house, the President's low approval rating plays a huge factor and historically, the opposite party, Democrats, have always won midterm elections. It's been acknowledged that the Democrats will take over the house, but it's valid that with one mistake by either parties, the winner of the midterm elections can go either way.
Sources:
1: http://www.startribune.com/trump-approval-falls-in-new-minnesota-poll/493794201/
I respectfully disagree with Nico in regards to the Republican party winning congress. One reason I disagree is because Trumps disapproval rating is much lower than his approval rating. When this has happened in the past the presidents political party tends to suffer during the midterms(1). So if the pattern continues, the Republican party is not likely to win congress because Trump is a Republican.
1: Our Best Guess, Class Article
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