Post 1 - Due Sept 14th
On Tuesday, November 6, 2018 Americans will have the opportunity to vote in the midterm elections. These midterm elections will take place in the middle of Republican President Donald Trump's first term. All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be on the ballot.
Answer the following prompt(s):
* Which party do you think will win control of the House of Representatives and Senate? Why?
* Who will win Minnesota's most contentious representative races?
- Rep. Erik Paulson (R) v. Dean Phillips in the 3rd District (which includes Bloomington)
- Dan Feehan (D) v. Jim Hagedorn (R) in the 1st District
- Pete Stauber (R) v. Joe Radinovich (D) in the 8th District
Please answer the following prompt by class time on Friday, Sept 14th. Your answer should be well explained and use sources to support your argument. You are expected to cite your sources but you are not required to use MLA formatting. Please include links to internet source. Your goal is to use at least 3 sources in your post. Please proofread before posting. Your post will be read by me, your classmates, and even potentially others. :) A great place to look for arguments you might want to use is the opinion section of any major newspaper. See me if you need help researching or writing your post. I look forward to reading what you have to read.
Note: you will be graded on how & whether you back up your opinion with evidence. You will NOT be evaluate on your opinion.
Labels: campaign, Congress, midterm elections, Senate
posted by Ms. Aby @ 7:29 PM
18 Comments:
In my opinion, I believe that the Democrats will win both Congress houses through the upcoming midterm elections. According to the Economist Article, (1) "...his disapproval ratings (President Trump) is much lower than his approval ratings." As a result of this and historical patterns where voters tend to favor the opposite party that the president represents rather than the current party, voters are more likely to vote towards the Democrats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Also, according to the BBC (2), there are over 30 republican Congress members that plan to resign from office, as opposed to the Democrat's less than half of that, thus leaving vacancies for both Democrats or Republicans to fight for control of again. The BBC also lists that Democrat candidates receive more funding and donations than the Republican candidates. Lastly, voters seem to agree with the Democrats on important policies such as Healthcare (3). This issue will likely "Dominate the campaign," as the Vox article says. Even though the Democrats will likely win both Houses, it won't be by much so that means the Republicans will still be able to stall their agenda through filibuster or by other means.
Sources:
(1) The Economist Article read in class
(2) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45013748
(3) https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/24/17607138/2018-midterm-elections-predictions-generic-ballot-democrats
Thank you for getting us off to a good start!
I think that the republicans will win in congress in the 2018 midterm elections. According to NBC news (1)there is positive energy towards the Republican economy, the employment is down to 3.9 percent under the Trump administration with 201,000 jobs added in August. People could vote Republican to keep up the progress with the economy. Secondly, According to the Washington Post(2) the Republicans won in 2010 because they had a piece of legislation to run against (Obama's affordable care act) this time the Democrats don't really have a piece of legislation to run against and the Republicans are still working on getting rid of the Affordable care act. Lastly, Vox (3) says that the Republicans are trying to scare voters into voting against the Democrats. For example, in Wisconsin "Scott Walker says that Democrats would make Wisconsin more dangerous." In conclusion, the Republicans will maintain their majority in both houses.
Sources:
1. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/here-s-how-republicans-could-hang-congress-november-n908076
2.https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-aide-tells-donors-gop-can-win-midterms-despite-trumps-unpopularity/2018/09/08/9f5f01e2-b398-11e8-9a6a-565d92a3585d_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d559a1f8e2ab
3.https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/15/17686108/2018-midterm-elections-wisconsin-immigration-crime
While both show a passion for their work while making their goal of helping the everyday joe, I myself believe that Dean Phillips will come out with a very narrow win. For starters, Erik Paulsen is shown to align with Trump on 98% of political issues (1). With the 1st district being prominently liberal, as they voted more so for Hillary in the 2016 election, most will see Erik Paulsen's political alignment as a more negative thing. Next, polls from the New York Times reveal the fact that 3rd district voters political beliefs/thoughts (2) show more similarity between voters and Dean Phillips political positions (that being left-leaning ideas). So obviously, this means that they would rather vote for Dean Phillips; a man who clearly stands with the liberal majority, than Paulsen; a man who clearly sways to the right on most, if not all, issues in the political spectrum. Finally, Paulsen's debate with Phillips last month showed how Phillips showed strength and confidence while Paulsen seemed to be targeted through the audiences obvious support for Phillips (3). This aligns with the thought of Phillips personality being more liked then Paulsen, therefore this will make more people vote for him overall. In the end, these three factors show how Phillips will win through his good personality and liberal/progressive politic.
Source 1: http://www.startribune.com/rep-erik-paulsen-and-dean-phillips-face-off-in-first-debate-for-congressional-seat/491376221/
Source 2: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-mn03-1.html
Source 3: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/405860-dem-has-9-point-lead-over-gop-incumbent-in-minnesotas-3rd-district
From the perspectives of the articles I've read, I believe that it could go two ways. Regardless of if whether its an election, or a class vote on something little or serious, they always have two components to the vote. For starters, Republicans have a high chance of winning. According to the New York Times, they've stated that "Republicans still have structural advantages - gerrymandering; the tendency for Democrats to waste votes in urban areas...but in some cases, they have weakened," (1). The New York Times believe that the Democrats have been so far, not acknowledging the fact that they need every single vote and if they're disregarding urban areas votes, Democrats will not be able to win their votes. To back up the reasons for the possibility of why the Republicans might win, in the CNN news, "Republicans regained control of the Senate," (2). If the Republicans already have control over the Senate, there could possibly be little to zero chance of the Democrats taking over the House of Representatives.
Now, since I've discussed why the Republicans might win the mid-terms, let's move to the Democrats point of view. In The Bloomberg Opinion, the article states that "dozens of mainstream democratic candidates have defeated challengers who advocate totally government-run health-care systems," (3) Health care is something that not only Democrats care about, but also the citizens care about. If a majority of people care about health and health-care, votes could possibly run with the Democrat's side. To further support the reasons for why the Democrats might win the mid-terms, in Vox, Democrats are trying to lock in votes. So far, they've locked in votes from, "Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Maine, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Arizona, Florida, and Michigan," (4) Nine votes is at least more than any other number lower than nine. This also tells votes that Democrats are trying to lock in votes from a majority of the states. If they're able to lock in the votes in more than nine states, they could possibly win the election. As you can see from these long paragraphs, regardless of what the issues are, there are always two components to every situation. There are reasons why Republicans might win, and there are reasons why Democrats might snag the spots. So, I believe that it could go either way. It's seriously a close call if you ask me.
Sources:
1. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/upshot/99-days-till-midterm-elections-battleground.html
2. https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/28/opinions/trump-economy-gop-midterm-election-problem-opinion-zelizer/index.html
3. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-08/democrats-improve-midterm-chances-by-going-mainstream
4. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/30/17614554/2018-midterms-state-legislature-elections-gerrymandering
I believe the democratic party will take back the house, mainly due to the fact that Democrats have 23 seats to win back that was previously won districts by Hillary Clinton. People will also be more likely to vote democratic because of Trump's extreme unpopularity (1). Minnesota's 1st district will most likely be own by Democrat Dan Feehan, due to his service in both the army and the community. Feehan wants to work towards cheaper health care and treatment for prescription drug abuse (2), both of which are gaining a lot of popularity in this country. Opponent Rep.Jim Hagedorn wants to fight back against abortion rights and the affordable care act. The 1st district was won by Obama twice making it easier for Feehan to win. However, Rep.Erik Paulson has a much better chance of winning the 3rd district due to his experience and support of protection of the boundary waters. Dem. Dean Phillips however, is a 1st-time runner and is a millionaire making it harder for people to relate to him(3). In the 8th district, many topics are being covered in the debates and who the people of the district will choose is unclear. Both candidates, are dedicated public servants and are both popular in the district. The 8th district is a reliably Democratic area but had voted Trump in the previous election(4). However, these nationally covered elections will go, they will be significant.
Source:
1.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/07/27/why-washington-insiders-think-democrats-will-take-back-the-house/?utm_term=.183e2f43fce6
2. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/08/15/minnesota-1st-district-race-one-to-watch-nationally
3.http://www.startribune.com/rep-erik-paulsen-and-dean-phillips-face-off-in-first-debate-for-congressional-seat/491376221/
4. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-mn08-1.html
I believe that the house will be won by the democratic party. One reason I believe this, is that trumps disapproval rating is much lower than his approval rating. When this has happened in the past the presidents political party (R) tends to suffer during the midterms(1).
I also believe that Phillips will win the third district, by a narrow margin. It's true that the third district has voted primarily republican for years, but the district did go for Hillary in 2016, which shows dislike for Trump, which means they probably wont want someone agreeing with most of Trump's decisions, which Paulsen does 98% of the time(2).
Feehan (D) will most likely win the first district because he and his opponent are mostly equally matched job wise, and when looking at them personally Feehan wins out. He's a veteran and active in the community(3), he seems agreeable and that will draw people to him.
The eighth district to me is a toss up, they're both so close in polls (4), and while the eighth district is usually blue it did light up red for Trump in 2016, which is what makes the race so close.
Sources:
Our Best Guess, Class Article (1)
http://www.startribune.com/rep-erik-paulsen-and-dean-phillips-face-off-in-first-debate-for-congressional-seat/491376221/ (2)
http://www.startribune.com/jim-hagedorn-dan-feehan-endorsed-in-first-congressional-district/480464931 (3)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-mn08-1.html (4)
I think that the Democratic party will win a majority of the congressional positions. The mid-west which is a key point in this election is heavily leaning toward the democratic party because of the changes they haven't seen with president Trumps term. "The Midwest is an area that is getting restless about what they hoped was going to occur and what they feel is not occurring" says Lee Miringoff who is the director of marist institute of public opinion (1). Even though there are people that say that the democratic party will only win if they get more voters by the time midterms come along (2) the data that we have now still leans toward the democrats getting a majority of the open congressional positions according to fivethirtyeight(3). The data says that the democratic party is very likely to get 80% of the seats and get control of congress. With all of this evidence I believe that the democratic Party will win the mid term elections.
1 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/midterms-2018-elections-trump-republicans-blue-wave-midwest-michigan-wisconsin-minnesota-a8535501.html
2 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/blue-wave-2018-midterm-elections-democrats-poll-predictions-anthony-salvanto-book-a8501821.html
3 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
Through my research I have found that the Democrats will have a higher possibility of winning the midterm elections and taking over the House. One of the major key elements that could help the dominance of the democrats is the negative poll numbers towards Donald Trump "And despite a strong economy, Republicans must also contend with the president's sagging approval rating and the constant swirl of controversy hanging over the White House."(1) Donald Trump’s negative approval rating would drastically help the democrats and in the end, possibly start a process for the impeachment of Trump. "Trump's approval rating at just 36% and put his approval among independents at 31%, a new low and dropped all the way from 47% last month,(2)" these statistics prove the importance of Trumps negative approval rating. If the public does not support the president, they will most likely not support the party. Also, former president Barack Obama recently made a speech at the University of Illinois. Obama came out and attacked Trump for the mess he has made while in office "launched a direct and blistering attack on President Donald Trump and Republicans and called on Americans to get to the ballot box in November to "restore some semblance of sanity to our politics."(3) Obama was a very popular president to the people of this generation, especially to many minorities. This huge number of minorities will almost definitely affect the midterm elections. Although the democrats have a very high chance of dominating both houses, the Republican party does still have a very close chance of dominating. 84% of Republicans approve of Trumps work in office. This approval rating for republicans will definitely help the Republicans into a very tight race in these elections.
(1). https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-midterm-elections-2018-future-of-donald-trump-presidency-and-control-of-congress-on-the-line-as-2-month-countdown-begins-5156271.html
(2). https://www.businessinsider.com/polls-trump-approval-rating-midterm-elections-2018-9
(3). https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/09/07/barack-obama-preview-midterm-elections-message-chicago-speech/1218153002/
Personally, I believe that the Democrats are going to take control of the House, however, the Republicans do have a standing chance. First, Nate Silver at 538 gives the Democrats around an 80% chance of gaining control of the House as of September 13. (1) This agrees with the trend mentioned in the Economist article read in class (2) that when the current President has low approval ratings, as Trump does, historically, the opposite party has gained control of the House. It is also important to mention that this is the first national election since the Presidential election in 2016 and the people have been given the chance to decide how they feel about Trump as a president and if they want legislators in Congress who will try to balance this out. Also, an impeachment for Trump is plausible if the Democrats are able to take control of the House, so if voters are supportive of an impeachment, they may be more inclined to vote Democrat in November. Bloomberg also states that a Democrat win is likely to be seen (3), especially as of right now. The Bloomberg also notes that while the Democrats are favored as of now, there is still a possibility for a switch-up, giving the power back to the Republicans. Overall, I think that while most websites report that the Democrats are going to win, voters should take that with a grain of salt, because anything can happen and given that it is so close right now, one small misstep for the Democrats could affect their hold on the House.
Sources:
1: https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/
2: Economist article
3: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-20/midterm-predictions-all-models-favor-the-democrats-jl29v0hh
I believe the Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives and Senate in the upcoming midterm elections. One sign that has lead me to conclude this is the fact that Trump’s approval rating has recently been below 50 percent. In the past, a low approval rating has resulted in voters voting for the opposite party of the president. Specifically, president Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush all had low approval ratings and saw their parties struggle extremely in the midterms (1). Another reason why the Democrats are going to win majority is because “the party that holds the White House almost always loses seats in the midterms” (2). This is because voters who are undecided generally vote opposite to the president’s party for reasons such as it creates a good check on the president. Additionally, Republicans are likely to lose seats since there has been Republican retirements. This has caused “the highest number of Republican seats open since at least 1930 and perhaps much longer. That’s significant because open seats are easier to flip than seats with incumbents” (2). Also, the Democrats have been winning in special elections (3). These have included winning seats in usually Republican areas. Overall, history has proven that these signs will lead to the democrats winning both houses in Congress.
Sources:
1)https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/29/politics/5-metrics-100-days-midterms/index.html
2)https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/8-questions-for-the-midterm-elections-a-blue-wave-or-not/2018/09/03/79d2ca88-ad64-11e8-b1da-ff7faa680710_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d3ce3f6b2a92
3)The Economist- “Our Best Guess”
I think that the Democrats are going to take control of the House and senate. This is because many places that used to be republican are now leaning towards the Democratic party. Some places like Alabama and Western Pennsylvania are particularly important to the Democrats to get the win. I feel like Donald Trump has really hurt the Republicans in the sense that people don't trust him as much anymore with the recent allegations. But this election will go down to the wire and end pretty close.
In MN, i believe that Dean Phillips, Dan Feehan, and Joe Radinovic will win. Many people speculate that MN is going to lean towards the Democratic party and not go republican. During the presidential election the Midwest was predicted to go towards the Democrats, and that doesn't look like that's going to change this time. The past few elections that MN and the Midwest in general have really almost been a toss up.
Sources:
The Economist
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/27/17621608/2018-midterm-elections-polls-michigan-wisconsin-minnesota
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/7/17426576/blue-wave-explained
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In my opinion, with the following articles, I believe the Democrats will be taking control of the houses in the upcoming Mid-term election. As the number of Republicans decrease, the possibility for the upcoming Mid-term election for the Democrats take a rise in numbers. The Democrats are seen to be predicted that the poll numbers will be mainly in their favor. "... the model expects the Democrats' lead in polls that ask about people's broad preferences to grow from 6.4% points now to 8.8% in November." (1). With the polls growing higher, the positions for the House of Rep. and Senate leans towards to the Democrats. '“By a 14-point margin, Americans would rather vote for the Democratic candidate in their local race for the US House of Representatives. Could the ‘blue wave’ become a tsunami?”' (2). Another reason the Democrats are possibly taking the house is because of American voters. With their vote, this drives the path for the Democrats to take over the position in the houses. "Democrats 53 to 31 percent in the 2018 House of Representatives election, a 22-point split. Millennial women prefer Democrats to Republicans in the House by 33 points, and millennial men by 11 points." (3). The last reason is that within the younger generation, their political stance is with the Democrats. With the support of the younger groups, this would push the Democrats running for the house closer to succeeding. Overall, the Democrats is most likely to be seen winning the seats of the House of Rep. and the Senate.
1. The Economist
2. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/midterms-2018-elections-trump-republicans-blue-wave-midwest-michigan-wisconsin-minnesota-a8535501.html
3.https://www.vox.com/2018/8/29/17795718/poll-millennial-young-vote-2018-midterms
I believe that the Democrats will win both houses of Congress in the 2018 midterm election because news everywhere has speculate that Republicans are retiring or not wanting reelection and Democrats has always shown most majority for popular votes. As of right now, the Democrats generic ballot is at 52%, while the Republicans have 38%. Although Trump is the President of the United States of America, his approval rating is in the 30 percent range. As said in CNN Politics, "President Trump is now in the mid to upper 30s in job approval, you grasp that the first Tuesday in November is starting to look very, very dark for Republicans"(1). It also seems that Democrats will take the seat because of Republicans legal scandals or other damaging political revelations in some states. According to NYTimes, "10 seats currently held by Republicans are either likely to be won by Democrats or lean slightly toward them,"(2) Finally, the Democrats have never been in a better position to take the house back than now. In another CNN Politics article, the Republicans are not doing so hot because "36 Republican seats rated as toss-up or leaning towards the Democrats, while only 3 Democratic seats are rated as toss-up or leaning towards the Republicans. That's a difference of 33"(3). That is bad news for Republicans and great news for the Democrats. Overall, the Republicans are at risk of losing the most ever seats seen in history and the Democrats will flip the house.
Sources:
1) https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/12/politics/republicans-2018-midterm-elections/index.html
2) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/house-race-ratings.html
3) https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/29/politics/5-metrics-100-days-midterms/index.html
I believe that the Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections. Since the representatives are split between districts based on population instead of 2 per state like the senate, it is more likely that Democrats will dominate because they have the majority of votes in California and New York (1). There are 35 seats that need to be filled in the Senate and the Democratic party has won important special elections recently, one of which being a Senate seat in Alabama (2). With all of the controversy regarding immigration laws, gun control, abortion and women's rights, and the President’s ongoing list of political and professional wrongdoings, Trump's approval ratings have not been doing well (3). The country is divided due to these issues and many people seek change and they will accomplish this by voting Democratically.
Sources:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
2. The Economist
3. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/16/predicting-midterm-elections-winners/
Ulyses Perez Perez
In my opinion, I believe the Democrats will win the House and Senate in the upcoming midterm elections. According to The Economist (1), “his (President Trump) disapproval ratings is much lower than his approval ratings.” As it has been seen historically, the opposing party of the president tends to win and take over the midterm elections as citizens are unhappy with the president’s actions. If this historical pattern continues in the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats will be favored and take over the House and the Senate. Also, according to CNN (2), “The President is a negative motivator for a majority of voters, according to the poll, with 54% saying they would be more apt to support a candidate who opposes President Trump.” With this recent poll taken by millions of Americans, they choose to lean towards the Democrat side for the House and Senate. Lastly, according to Fortune (3), “More than two thirds of them want to see a Democratic Congress.” A huge factor that will benefit Democrats comes from the millenials of men and women. It has been acknowledged throughout the nation that Democrats are more likely to win both the House and Senate. If there’s a complete flip from Republicans to Democrats in Congress, it will be likely that President Trump will be impeached (1).
Sources:
(1) The Economist (in class)
(2) https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/13/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-lead-likely-voters/index.html
(3) http://fortune.com/2018/08/14/millennial-women-midterm-elections/
After some researching and personal debate, I believe that the Democratic party will be victorious. According to "USA Today" (1) the democratic party has a higher number with the generic ballot, "Democrats are poised to win up and down the ballot this fall, despite the strong economy and Republicans’ advantages on the electoral map". To support this "The Economist" (2) has used past midterm election data to claim that a democratic take over was inevitable, "Historically, control of the lower chamber has been a foregone conclusion as well. In every contest from 1954 to 1992, the Democrats won at least 232 seats(.)" And lastly, "San Francisco Chronicle" (3) is claiming President Trumps chances of having a Republican house is very slim, "Trump maintains the support of about 90 percent of his party. But opinion polls indicate Democratic and independent antipathy toward Trump, spotlighted by an embattled media eager to score points on the man who calls them the people’s enemy. Barring some unexpected event such as a major terrorist attack, the wave in November is most likely to be blue in color." In a nutshell, 1) Democratic poll numbers are higher, 2) Historically Democratic take over was bound to happen, 3) Unless there is something bringing the country together, Trump is not popular and won't get a republican house.
Da Sources:
1)https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/09/14/midterm-elections-what-did-just-completed-primaries-tell-us/1261098002/
2)Class Article.
3)https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/High-stakes-for-Trump-in-midterm-elections-13227224.php
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