Post 4: Due 10/28
Election Prediction
Explain who you think will win the 2016 presidential election and how. What I mean by "how" is what strategy will she/he use, what issue(s) will be the most significant to voters, and what swing states will she/he win, etc. We will compare your predictions with results and exit poll data after the election. Be sure to use at least 3 sources to justify your prediction! Good luck.Labels: elections, presidential campaign
posted by Ms. Aby @ 8:43 AM
47 Comments:
I think that Hillary Clinton will end up winning the 2016 presidential election. If not because her policy ideas are more realistic and achievable, and she is undoubtedly more experience, but because of the recent issues that have surrounded Donald Trump, promoting many republicans (both citizens and politicians) to abandon their support for him. I think Clinton strategy is to reach out to as many people has possible, especially those of different ethnicities and varying political opinions. This will get her voice out there to the people who hadn’t thought of voting for her before, but know she hopes they will due to Donald Trump's recent scandal of sexually harassing/assaulting women. Clinton has been recently campaigning in traditionally republican states to do just that. She’s recently campaigned in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, which are known to be “battleground” states, due to a usually divided vote during the election. The issues I think will benefit her most are foreign policy, economic issues, equal pay and minority equality/issues. The swing states are Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida, I believe Clinton will win over North Carolina and Ohio.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/22/us/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton.html?_r=0
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republicans-tight-races-abandon-donald-trump/story?id=43025235
http://www.wsj.com/graphics/elections/2016/swing-the-swing-states-to-see-if-hillary-clinton-or-donald-trump-will-win/
Thanks for getting us started Katie!
When election day comes around : I believe that Clinton will win. This is because, according to Abc News Clinton is campaigning in historically republican states(1). In essence, she is taking Trump's base right from under his feet, and by doing this she can reach a whole new group of voters. However, according the article from Abc News warns that Clinton can not get complacent; it might cost her the race(1).Furthermore, some of the key swing states right now are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, and Nevada according to CNN(2). Also according to CNN, Clinton is doing pretty well in these states where people have already sent their votes in early(2). Furthermore, CNN also shows that in states like Iowa 123,957 people voted early for the democrats, whereas the Republicans only got 84,469 votes from the people who voted early(2). Finally, according to the Pew Research Center, voters said that the most important issues were: the economy(84% of the people said this would affect their vote(3). The second most important issue to voters was the issue of terrorism(about 68% of voters said this was important). As a result, I believe Clinton will win.
Sources:
1.http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-camps-strategy-win-big-election-day/story?id=43029278
2.http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/early-voting-statistics-2016-election/
3.http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/4-top-voting-issues-in-2016-election/
Testing whether this works - this is Meredith Aby-K
I think Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election. Clinton is highly likely to win 10 out of the 18 swing states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico (1). She has a medium chance of winning 6 out of the 18 states, including Florida, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. She is not likely to win Arizona and Indiana. If she gets every state she is likely to win, she will gain 113 electoral college votes, which will make a huge impact on her campaign. She has also become more likely to win in light of the recent scandals with Trump. After Trump’s “locker room talk” audio came out, Republican women in Pennsylvania suburbs (a state with 20 electoral votes) have denounced the Republican candidate (2). The New York Times predicts that Clinton has a 91% chance of winning the election, based off of state and national polls (3). Additionally, in the past couple of weeks, after the release of the locker room talk, Clinton’s support among women has drastically increased, with her now leading Trump by 20 points for the women's vote (4). In conclusion, I believe Clinton will win the election because of her dominance in the swing states, Trump’s scandals, and her increase in the women’s vote.
(1).https://www.willhillarywin.com/tagged/swing-states/
(2).http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/11/donald-trump-losing-votes-of-pennsylvania-women-af/
(3).http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
(4).http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-10-18/donald-trump-was-man-hillary-clinton-needed-win-womens-vote
I think Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election. In the last three elections, she really has shown that she's under control, and is the better fit for presidency. She has capitalized on Trump's scandals, and only further increases her support from woman (Washington Post). Clinton has also stated she is pro-choice, which is a very significant issue for many voters. Her view on this is issue has helped her secure many voters, and she may be hoping to bring in some younger voters (Gallup). She also is doing well in securing the swing states. Latinos in Florida and many other swing states have played an important role in making sure Trump doesn't become president, due to his seemingly racist views (LA Times). Clinton has done a good job in the past few weeks of showing that she is the right candidate for many groups, and her ability to reach out to a wide group of voters will help her reach presidency.
Sources
-https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/the-demographic-groups-fueling-the-election/
-http://www.gallup.com/poll/170249/split-abortion-pro-choice-pro-life.aspx
-http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-1473438618-htmlstory.html
Despite the Trump's ability to upset elections so far, I believe Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election. Hillary has won 203/272 polls from September 28 through October 27, though these were not all national polls and are by no means all of the polls conducted(1). Further, there is talk of Texas, one of the Republican party's main source of electoral college votes, going blue (voting Democrat) this year, a huge loss for Trump and a huge win for Clinton; This is a result of a mix of Texan Republicans refusing to endorse Trump and changing demographics in the state (2). The main issue that Hillary will win on is that she is not Trump. Voters are increasingly anxious and dissatisfied with the candidates, and especially Trump, with a 67% unfavorability rate, and a 64% unfavorability rate among independent voters necessary to pull ahead in the election (3). Clinton will win all of the typically democrat states, and will win most of the swing states as well, simply due to a final push of anti-Trump sentiment in the last few days over the media and general populace.
(1)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/#
(2)http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2016/09/tied-texas
(3)https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/08/a-record-number-of-americans-dont-like-donald-trump-and-thats-very-important-to-remember/
I think that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election. Her policy on issues of importance to the voters are realistic and can be obtained. She has more experience in politics. And with the recent scandals about Trump, which prompted many republicans, both citizens and politicians to abandon their support of him via retractions of endorsements and switching to vote for Clinton or the third party candidates. I think that Clinton’s strategy will be to reach out to as many people as possible. She should reach out old Trump supporters, people of different ethnicities, and minority groups. She has made stops in the key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire to be able to win over old and current Trump supporters. According to Pew Research Center, the economy, terrorism, foreign policy, health care, gun policy, and immigration top the charts of important issues. That is what the voters will focus on this election and the voters will pay attention to what each candidate says about these issues. The swing states are Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida. The states I think she will win are Arizona and Ohio.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/presidential-election-odds-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-us-polls-who-will-win-polling-best-latest-a7379401.html
http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/4-top-voting-issues-in-2016-election/
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states
I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the election. The two candidates plans for the remainder of the election can add some changes though. I believe that she will win because she has much more backing with her, Clinton has brought the First Lady Michelle Obama to her rallies and then can use some of the power of the incumbent to help her possibly win some the battleground states. She also has Obama himself, Biden, Bill Clinton, and Sanders out making the case for her in important states. While Trump, after losing important supporters, has less of a political backing to be going out and doing rallies other than himself and his vice president candidate Mike Pence. Recently, they have been out in swing states trying to close down those important electoral votes. Mostly the candidates have been in Florida trying to get the votes from the states that is tied for third in amount of electoral votes with 29. However, the Republican side had to send out Pence to Utah to fully secure that state after it seemed to waver. That wasted time could become critical in the final days of the election. As far as winning the swing states, Clinton seems to have the upper hand in most, except Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and maybe Arizona, but if Trump wins Florida than there might be more of a battle than I believe. In the end though, I agree with Project FiveThirtyEight’s, a website that uses complex statistics to predict outcomes, prediction of Hillary winning.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast-analysis
http://www.ibtimes.com/hillary-clinton-vs-donald-trump-latest-swing-states-polls-florida-north-carolina-2437977
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/analysis-where-have-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-spent-their-time/
I predict that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election because of her campaign strategy, she is casting Trump aside and focusing on her own campaign, she is focusing on winning swing states, and is working on registering African American voters and helping get them to the polls. The first thing Clinton is doing right that will help her win the election is ignoring what Trump’s campaign plots against her, and focuses on her own campaign. It is clear that a large portion of Trump’s campaign strategy is specifically targeting Clinton, but recently she said, “I don’t even think about responding to him anymore” (1). Another important strategy that Clinton is using is her targeting of the swing states. Clinton is targeting specifically Utah and Arizona which are generally red, in attempts to shake up the electoral map 2). If she can win over these states they would help her get a clear lead over Trump by taking away electors that generally go to Republican candidates. The last important strategy that the Clinton campaign is using is finding a way to make sure underrepresented minority groups show up to the polls. She is specifically trying to find ways to encourage African Americans to vote, because they are generally a liberal group, but also do not generally vote. In South Carolina African Americans make up ¼ of the electorate for that state 3), which is a large portion, and will be important to Clinton winning. South Carolina is typically a battleground state and having one fourth of the electorate underrepresented will not help Clinton win the electors from that state. One big issue that Clinton has over Trump is her foreign policy, more specifically her plan for Syria. According to an article from the Washington Post 4) Trump has a more aggressive plan, but Clinton has an approach that more voters agree with. This again will help her get more electors and win the election over Trump. Overall Clinton has a strong plan going into the election to gain as many electors as possible, making her more likely than Trump to win the election.
1) http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-clinton-strategy-election-230208
2) http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-camps-strategy-win-big-election-day/story?id=43029278
3) http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-clinton-north-carolina-20161023-snap-story.html
4) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/will-hillary-clinton-deliver-on-her-promise-to-ramp-up-us-involvement-in-syria/2016/10/23/1f2788e4-97bd-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html?utm_term=.3de515979d2d
I think that Hillary Clinton is going to win the 2016 presidential election because of her campaign strategy. Hillary will likely have the votes in the traditionally Democratic western and northern states of the U.S., while Trump will likely have many of the southeastern less-populous states [1]. I think that Hillary will likely use Donald Trump's actions and words against him in order to gain support for her own campaign. For instance, the comment he has made in reference to women and about women have caused a sharp decline in his support [2]. I predict that she will use this and more controversial comments he has made against him. In order to win, she will have to show that Trump lacks the temperament, character, and knowledge to be president[3]. HIllary is currently leading in the polls of most swing states [3]. She definitely has the vote of the demographically younger citizens. Trump lacks strong support from a variety of groups such as: African Americans, and women[3]. Hillary will have to overcome the issue of lack of trust by the public that resulted from the email scandal in order to solidify her support. Hillary will easily win the election as long as she can effectively sell her message and negatively portray her opponent, while not degrading her own image as a candidate.
[1]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
[2]https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/05/09/the-striking-decline-in-womens-support-for-donald-trump-in-2-graphs/
[3]http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/07/politics/how-hillary-clinton-could-win/
In the upcoming presidential election I think that Hillary Clinton will win. While some people may disagree with her on her beliefs and policies, I think she will earn votes due to her experience in politics. I think that her biggest strategy in the campaign will be to appear more presidential than Trump, and as someone that the public will be proud to call a world leader. Rather than focusing on actual issues and policies, I think that the majority of voters will vote according to which candidate they think will responsibly hold themselves as a president. According to The New York Times, Hillary has a 91% chance of winning the election. They state that Hillary’s chance of losing is “about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 31-yard field goal” (1). This statistic confirms that Clinton has a very small chance of losing the election. It is even projected that Clinton will win states in the election that have previously rarely voted Democrat.
Historically, Texas has almost always voted Republican. However, in the upcoming election Texas is looking like more of a swing state. With Texas being such a large state, the candidates are now fighting to win it. However, I don’t think that it will be a competitive race because of the large Latino population in Texas. According to PewResearchCenter, 39% of the Texas population is Latino (2). With Trump’s stance on immigrants and Latinos, I think that Clinton will win Texas due to the large percentage of Latinos living there. Trump has made numerous harsh comments towards Latinos which I’m assuming has galvanized them into voting, and will help Clinton win the state of Texas.
I think Clinton will win in November, despite people’s disagreements with her policies. Trump supporters are agreeing with the statement as well. An article from the Washington Post states that almost 70% of people believe that Hillary will win, which is significantly higher than the 44% of people that support Hillary accroding the PollingReports.com (3, 4). I think that Clinton is going to win, and from data is appears that the majority of the United States agrees.
(1) http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0
(2) http://www.pewhispanic.org/fact-sheets/2016-state-election-fact-sheets/latinos-in-the-2016-election-texas/
(3) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/26/two-thirds-of-americans-think-clinton-will-win-which-may-be-the-best-predictor-that-she-will/
(4) http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm
I believe that Clinton will win this election. I think the scandals surrounding Trump could play a part in her strategy. The Trump tapes were a tipping point for many of his supporters and this may be what drives up Clinton’s numbers, pulling her ahead. Incorporating Trump’s setback into her campaign could be a strategy to gain more votes. She could focus on women who felt disrespected by the Trump tapes and have turned away from him, or perhaps Clinton could speak more on the issue that hurt Trump - sexual harassment - to show an unoffensive stance that women support.
Not only has these tapes cost him support of voters, but it has also cost him the support of politicians and Republican leaders. Senators and House members have withdrawn support and some have even demanded him to step aside. Senator McCain and vice presidential candidate, Mike Pence, have commented that his words were offensive (1). This pressure from his own party hurts his running as well.
In regards to important issues, economy and terrorism/national security seem to be at the top of the list (2). Economy has probably been the most talked about issue of the election, and with differing stances by the 2 candidates, voters will have to consider which candidate truly reflects their interest. Terrorism and national security have nearly topped the list. There is a lot of concern due to the recent attacks. While both candidates agree that they need to deal with foreign countries, they once again have differing plans, so which stance people agree with more will influence the outcome of the election.
The swing states may be what really makes the difference, and Clinton’s strategy includes focusing on Arizona and Utah, buying ads and sending staffers (3). According to early vote totals of battleground states, Clinton is ahead in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina. I believe she’ll win the latter three due to the fact that Colorado and Nevada lean towards Democrat and African American votes will further Clinton’s 100,000+ vote lead in North Carolina (4). I think Trump will win Iowa and Georgia. As a whole, I think the candidates will win the states that identify more with their party, and swing states will for the most part vote Clinton.
(1) http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/09/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html?_r=0
(2) http://www.pollingreport.com/prioriti.htm
(3) http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-camps-strategy-win-big-election-day/story?id=43029278
(4) http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/early-voting-statistics-2016-election/
I predict that Hillary Clinton will win the election. She is leading in the polls, which are a good indicator of which way the popular vote will go. If the popular vote goes to Clinton, the electoral most likely will as well. Second, Clinton is hailed as Obama's successor. This probably means that she can win many or all of the states he won in 2012. Gary Johnson could be another factor. Many Republicans, disillusioned with Trump's racist rhetoric are faced with a few options. Vote Clinton, vote Johnson, or don't vote at all. Of these options, many Republicans feel that Johnson is the most conservative, and would be the best for their interests. Any of these could suck away Trump's votes, hurting his chances at the election. Currently, it seems as if Clinton's strategy hinges on many of these. She is attempting to pull conservative and centrist voters to her side, which she has been recently succeeding at, as well as bashing Trump on poor choices he as made, such as the now infamous Access Hollywood tape, where Trump makes incredibly sexist and horrible statements. Finally, I think Clinton can take swing states. Texas's conservative ideologies are more in line with Johnson's, splitting Texan Republicans and allowing Clinton to take Texas. I also predict Utah will be a lot closer, but could still go either way, because of Mormons who are angry at Trump's "grab them..." comments. Many Mormons have endorsed Hillary, changing a red state into a purple, possibly. Hillary's issues will be important, mainly her opinions on race relations, especially because they contradict Trump's. People who disagree with Trump on that issue may be especially anti-Trump because of how deeply he has dug himself in on it. Hillary's anti-racist rhetoric is just the thing she needs to put a cherry on top of the election cake, and finish Trump off.
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1727805/Map_Wed525pCST.png
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=855Am6ovK7s
goo.gl/nqR7N7 (I know it's a BuzzFeed article. They have a news branch too)
I believe that Clinton will win the 2016 election for a number of reasons. Her campaign strategy in the last few weeks until the election seem to be capitalizing on Trump's seemingly continuous scandals, especially in traditionally Republican states (1). According to FiveThirtyEight, Clinton's chances of winning the election are currently at 83%, which is still lower than what they New York Times predicted, with Clinton having a 92% chance of winning the election (2) (3). With Trump already being a rather unconventional Republican candidate, there were states that leaned Democrat from the beginning. With the recent scandals and brash rhetoric from Trump, more and more moderate Republicans appear to be voting either third party or Democrat. According to FiveThirtyEight, Clinton appears to be ahead in swing states such as Iowa, Wisconsin and Florida, and even appears to have a slight chance of winning the traditionally conservative state of Arizona. With states like California, Illinois and New York locked down for the Democratic Party, Trump would need to win the votes of all of the smaller, traditionally Republican states. But, Clinton appears to be attracting these smaller swing states more and more. Reasons for Clinton's apparent lead besides Donald Trump's scandals may include her stances on climate change and college affordability, both of which have been practically unheard of with respect to the Trump campaign. Also, people might be finally deciding that it would be safer to go with the candidate who has real political experience, rather than a fresh face on the political scene. Since such a large percentage of America is moderate, and since Clinton tries to appear more moderate in comparison to Trump and his relatively radical views, more moderates are swaying towards Hillary Clinton.
(1):http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-camps-strategy-win-big-election-day/story?id=43029278
(2): http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
(3): http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0
I believe we would be hard-pressed to find a person in this class who thinks Hillary Clinton will not be president on January 20, 2017. Indeed, I too think that Hillary Clinton will win the election - but rather than using my blog post to cite all the same polls, electoral college projections, and campaign strategies that my fellow classmates will almost certainly mention, I want to devote my space to the little-known man who has a near impossible (but possible) chance of becoming president:
Evan McMullin.
Most Americans would have trouble recognizing who Evan McMullin is. In fact, I had no clue who he was until about a week ago. After doing more research, however, I began to realize just how important he may be in this election. Evan McMullin launched his independent bid for the presidency in August of this year, and since then he has gained a lot of support in one state: Utah. Why Utah? Because McMullin grew up in Utah, is a Mormon, and has values and policy stances that are a conservative contrast to Donald Trump. Utah has historically voted Republican, but with Donald Trump’s unpopularity (especially with evangelicals), McMullin’s clear conservatism has attracted lifelong Republicans to his camp (1). In fact, polls taken in the last two weeks show McMullin either leading in Utah or behind by an average of 4 points - but even these polls may not be showing the true number of supporters McMullin has claimed (2,3) Overall, the site FiveThirtyEight gives McMullin a 19.4% chance of winning Utah; and if he does win Utah’s six electoral votes, election night could get very interesting (2).
For a presidential candidate to win the election, a candidate must receive 270 electoral votes or more. Clearly, Utah’s six electoral votes will not give McMullin the presidency, but the House of Representatives might. Here is the situation, which is admittedly complex, extremely unlikely, but still possible:
Donald Trump is currently tied, ahead, or slightly behind in polls of the following states: Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin (4-12) Indeed, Trump has a genuine chance at winning all of these states, but the two listed above that he is most likely to lose are New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Hillary Clinton (based on the electoral map by 270toWin) only needs to win New Hampshire and Wisconsin, but if she wins only one of the two and loses all the other states listed above, she will end up with either 262 electoral votes (New Hampshire) or 268 electoral votes (Wisconsin), therefore denying her the 270 needed to have a majority. In a similar way, she will be denying Trump (who will also have either 262 or 268 electoral votes) the presidency as well. Now you may be thinking - shouldn’t Trump and Clinton be tied at 268? Where are those missing six electoral votes? These votes belong to Utah who will, quite possibly, award them to Evan McMullin (13).
With no candidate holding a majority of electoral votes, the 12th Amendment to the Constitution stipulates that, in such a situation, of the top three electoral vote getters (Trump, Clinton, and McMullin) the House of Representatives will choose the next president. The House is currently controlled by the Republicans, but House Republicans have not shown much loyalty to Trump in the past month of the campaign. Therefore, McMullin may become an appealing option and quite possibly win over the amount of Republicans necessary to claim victory.
(continued from post 1)
This is all very far-fetched, but it really shows how intricate and complex our electoral system is. A man who will likely receive less than 1% of the nationwide popular vote could become our next president. However, I notice now that, in the post I have written, I have not answered the original prompt very well. Therefore, I will close with this - Clinton will win by targeting women voters (the gender demographic that is most likely to change their vote leading up to election day); by stressing Donald Trump’s weaknesses and negatives; and by winning the key states of Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Florida (states that have voted Democratic in recent presidential elections).
(1) http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-evan-mcmullin-utah-20161027-story.html
(2) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/
(3) http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-may-be-underestimating-evan-mcmullins-chances-in-utah/
(4)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html
(5)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6087.html
(6)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html
(7)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5968.html
(8)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html
(9)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5981.html
(10)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html
(11)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6022.html
(12)http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5976.html
(13)http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/
I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election. For one thing, just observing the recent stance of states (1), it seems that most of the states that Trump is winning currently are the more sparsely populated Midwestern and Southern states (eg. Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska). In contrast, Clinton holds much more highly populated states (eg. California, New York, Illinois). This gives Clinton a much better chance of winning the greatest number of electoral votes.
Throughout her campaign, Clinton has used several strategies to put herself in this position. One of these strategies is her focus on children and families (2). Many of the top issues on Clinton’s platform target younger voters’ interest. For example, Clinton is a proponent for more affordable college tuition which draws in votes from many young voters in college or entering college as well as parents of such students looking to alleviate the cost of expensive tuition. Clinton has also been marketing herself towards women voters (2). This is a key strategy for her as the vote of women in America is a strong determining factor for who wins the election. Clinton has both publically stated her dedication to decreasing the wage gap and slyly played on the fact that she herself is a woman to increase her rhetoric appeal to women voters.
Recently, in the last days of her campaign, Clinton has been aiming her campaign, not only at swing states, but at historically Republican states as well. This election has proven very different from previous elections in that many Republican voters are refusing to party vote for Trump, the Republican candidate. Clinton is playing off of this unwillingness in an effort to present herself as a better alternative candidate to typically Republican states who do not wish to vote for Trump (3). Overall, these strategies will most likely lead Clinton to success in her campaigning and in the approaching election.
(1)http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
(2)http://www.npr.org/2016/10/26/499321154/clinton-and-trump-the-final-sprint
(3)http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-camps-strategy-win-big-election-day/story?id=43029278
I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the election. Clinton currently has around an 80.7% chance of winning, over Trump's 19.% [1] Currently the Clinton campaign is attempting to win the election by "as large a margin as [they] can." [2] They are trying to do this by expanding their campaign in more traditionally Republican states, to gain inroads with Republicans who are dissatisfied with their candidate. One such state they are pursuing is Arizona, where Clinton is campaigning aggressively. [3]
Focus on the issues has been less of a factor in Clinton's rise in the polls, as it is mostly based on recent developments in the Trump campaign. Trump's poor debate performance, [4] the video of his "locker room talk," [5] and a flood of sexual assault allegations, [6] have all led to a decrease in support for the Republican candidate. Clinton's approval rating, however, rose 4% following the debates, to 46% of people having a favorable view of her, over Trump's 34%. [4] Another factor was the leaked tape of Trump saying vulgar, derogatory things about women and bragging about sexual assault, which has cost him many supporters, among them many prominent Republicans, including John McCain. [5] In addition, around thirteen women in the past two weeks have come forward with accusations of sexual harassment and assault. [7] Even Trump has admitted that this has led to a decrease in support. [8]
I believe that Clinton will have much more luck among swing states, as she tends towards more moderate views than Trump, whose extreme views could turn battleground states against him. I also think that Clinton's increased campaigning in Arizona and Utah will help her win over these specific states. [2] However, if voter turnout in Florida and North Carolina is the same as it was in 2014, Trump could pull ahead in those states. [9] I believe that while Trump could win a couple battleground states, Clinton will be able to gain a majority, and therefore win the presidency.
Sources:
[1] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
[2]http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-camps-strategy-win-big-election-day/story?id=43029278
[3]https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/25/hillary-clinton-has-32-offices-open-in-arizona-donald-trump-doesnt/
[4]http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/27/poll-campaign-things-know/92821192/
[5] http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/09/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html?_r=0
[6] http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/14/politics/donald-trump-sexual-assault-allegations/
[7]http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/trump-and-the-truth-the-sexual-assault-allegations
[8]http://www.voanews.com/a/trump-concedes-he-is-losing-the-support-of-women/3553653.html
[9]http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/27/trump-will-win-these-swing-states-if-turnout-mirrors-2014/
I personally predict that Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election. Through factors such as polling the general public, and taking a look at individual swing states, I think it's very easy to make the educated guess of the outcome for the election. For the past month, I have seen constant polls in the news and on social media. Without even trying to look for the given information, Clinton is leading in reliable polls. (1) One source gives polling data from reliable sources within the past week, and averages them all out. The average percentage of Clinton being a more favorable candidate was at 45.8%, beating republican nominee Trump. (2) Another source shows a map of swing states as being either red (republican) or blue (democratic). The majority of the states were blue, thus supporting Clinton. Taking a look at Trump's approval rating before and after certain events and issues being discussed (debates, scandals, etc.), his approval has declined since let's say June, and the most previous debate. (3)
1. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
2. http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states
3.https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-new-poll-support-for-trump-plunges-giving-clinton-a-double-digit-lead/2016/06/25/0565bef6-3a31-11e6-a254-2b336e293a3c_story.html
I believe Hillary Clinton will win the election for three reasons. One, polling data recently is leaning heavily towards Clinton, with some polls showing her as much as 84% ahead of Trump, according to the New York Times.[1] This huge lead in the polls will undoubtedly create a bandwagon effect, leaving voters inclined to vote for the seemingly surefire candidate. Two, Hillary Clinton has proven to be more prepared and professional during the debates, giving voters and the media a good impression of her ability to remained composed while debating Trump and a bad impression of Trump's inability to do the same thing. As slate.com put it about the second debate: "Clinton’s Greatest Debate Accomplishment Was Ignoring Trump as He Lurked Behind Her"[2] and about the first, "Her discipline and composure were uncanny."[3] According to fivethirtyeight.com, a polling website, since the first debate, Trump's likely-hood to win the election has plummeted from about 45% to about 18%.[4] Lastly, Trump's campaign has recently been rocked by various scandals, damaging not only his reputation but also his campaign's momentum. These scandals include not only the release of a 2005 video in which Trump is caught claiming he sexually harassed women,[5] but also his apparent refusal to accept the results of the campaign unless he wins.[6] Overall, due to lack of composure, poor poll results and various scandals, Trump will lose, leaving Hillary Clinton as our next president.
Sources:
[1]http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
[2]http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2016/10/09/hillary_s_greatest_debate_accomplishment_was_ignoring_trump_as_he_lurked.html
[3]http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2016/09/27/hillary_clinton_s_temperament_wins_over_donald_trump_s_at_first_presidential.html
[4]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
[5]http://www.theatlantic.com/liveblogs/2016/10/trumps-tape-scandal-the-latest-updates/503480/
[6]http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-accept-election-mistake-230072
I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 election by using her current momentum and letting Trump implode. Polling data currently puts her chance of winning at 82.2% and Trump's at 17.8% [1]. This wide gap is in part due to the many scandals that Trump has gone through in the past couple of weeks. Before that, the race looked to be increasingly tight. In recent weeks, multiple women have accused Trump of sexual misconduct. These accusations came right after a disturbing tape surfaced of some extremely inappropriate comments about women that were made by Trump [2]. Both of these scandals have hurt his chances to become president. I think that one strategy Clinton will use is keeping these issues alive in order to remind the voters how demeaning Trump was and is. I also think she will continue to use support from party leaders, such as Obama and Biden, as she has had several appearances with them in the past couple weeks, ensuring that voters know that they endorse her candidacy. Just today, Michelle Obama went on the trail for the first time with Clinton. M. Obama's increasing popularity this year has been helpful in gaining momentum with women, African-Americans, and young voters. The campaign rally today was in North Carolina, a key swing state that Clinton hopes to win, currently having a 65% chance [1]. In order to win N.C., Clinton needs to get out and win the African-American vote, something that Michelle Obama is helping her do [3]. I also believe that Clinton has a good chance at winning Florida, with a current lead of 65%. This is in part due to the fact that there is a large Latino population in Florida, which typically votes with the Democratic party. I think that the most significant issues to voters will be national security/terrorism and the economy. Typically, the economy has been one of the most important issues in all presidential elections. However, due to more recent terrorist events, such as bombings, national security has risen to many people's top concern [4]. Overall, I think that Clinton will win this election by using her current momentum and party support and by letting Trump slowly self-destruct.
[1] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/27/trump-twelfth-woman-sexual-assault-accusation-ninni-laaksonen
[3] http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/michelle-obama-hillary-clinton-campaign/index.html
[4] http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/4-top-voting-issues-in-2016-election/
I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election based off of statistics from recent polls. According to Project FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, Clinton currently has a 83 percent chance of winning the election, while opponent Donald Trump has a 17 percent chance of winning the election (1). Predictions regarding the popular vote indicate that Clinton will win 49.5 percent of the popular vote. As for other candidates, Donald Trump is expected to win 43.5 percent of the popular vote and Gary Johnson is predicted to win 5.4 percent of the popular vote (1). Similar support for Clinton can be found in polls conducted by CNN/ORC on the week of October 20th. Results report that 68 percent of respondents believe that Hillary Clinton will win the election regardless of what candidate they supported (2). In order to receive this victory, I think that Hillary Clinton will focus on specific issues like the economy and terrorism in swing states. With the Pew Research Center indicating that the economy is the most important issue concerning voters in the 2016 election, it is crucial for Clinton to continue discussing her economic policies to sway likely voters in swing states (3). Terrorism is another important issue, ranking second on the list published by the Pew Research Center (3). In this category, 47 percent of people supported Clinton’s policies, while 49 percent of people support Trump (2). With a margin of error of three percent, it is necessary for Clinton to appeal to moderates to gain more support and maximize the number of votes she receives. In addition to focusing on specific political issues, Clinton needs to capitalize on the scandals surrounding Trump in the news. Appealing to citizens who do not approve of Trump’s previous actions and sexual assaults will fuel her campaign to presidential office. With Clinton’s strategies to discuss policies and create as many paths to victories as possible, I believe that she will win swing states such as Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa. It is also very likely that Clinton will earn more votes from traditionally republican states including Arizona (4). Victories in all of these swing states and Arizona gives Clinton 330 electoral votes, securing an expected victory in the popular vote and electoral college (1).
(1) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
(2) http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16.htm
(3) http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/4-top-voting-issues-in-2016-election/
(4) http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-camps-strategy-win-big-election-day/story?id=43029278
I think that Mrs. Clinton will win, {1} She only needs 12 more electoral votes as to Mr. Trump's 113 votes. Her strategy of focusing on the Sanders supporters and the ethnic groups helped her throughout her campaign. This shows that she is welcome to new people and ideas. This will help her, compared to Mr. Trump he is threatening immigration with his wall. (2) I think issues that are important to voters are taxes, healthcare and immigration. Mrs. Clinton has discussed these issues throughout her campaign (3) I think the swing state that Mrs. Clinton will win is Colorado. From the map on this website it has many blue areas indicating places where voters are voting for Clinton. {4} “It has been known for being a red state but she is changing the electoral map.”
http://www.270towin.com/maps/2016-election-battleground-states
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/10/the-tipping-points-of-the-2016-election/505238/
https://www.willhillarywin.com/tagged/colorado/
I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election. Although across the span of the nomination it seemed like it could be anyone's game, Trump's recent comments and accusations made against him lost him many supporters, potentially putting Clinton in the top spot. (1) Around 13.4 million people voted in advance to the November 8th election, giving an early start to candidate Hillary Clinton. Some critics argue that Trump is a "hidden vote," it is not likely that he will take home the prize. (2) Clinton made it very clear at the last three presidential debates that she had the ability to keep calm and under control, even while being attacked by opponent Donald Trump. This esteeming quality, as well as coming off as a mature and educated candidate gives her an advantage as opposed to Trump, who was seen constantly interrupting and making disrespectful remarks. (3) Clinton is also favorable among millennials, whom now surpass the population of the baby boomers. Clinton's forward approach attracts more voters than Trump, and she is most likely to win the presidency.
(1) http://nypost.com/2016/10/27/looks-like-trump-will-need-a-miracle-to-win-this-election/
(2) https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/27/hillary-clinton-will-win-what-kind-of-president-white-house-obama
(3) http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/09/clinton-gets-personal-in-appeal-to-millennials.html
Personally, I believe at this point, Clinton is the obvious front-runner in this election. Especially after watching the debates and the reaction to said debates, there is a clearer sense that more people find her to be a stronger candidate, and to me, her strategy should be quite simple. She doesn't need to be an overly emotional or fiery candidate to win, she should just let Mr. Trump implode on himself which has slowly been happening over the course of the election. If your campaign manager says "we are behind”(3) as in Trump's case, you know your campaign hasn't been doing well. On the topic of swing states, I feel like even though Trump might win Ohio and Arizona from recent polls(2), I still think that Clinton will win North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, Securing Clinton's victory, and the election to president (1). In all honestly, I believe this general election has been the least substantive in awhile, so I believe when it comes down to it, policy will be placed in the backseat, and the driving issue is who we believe can actually be trusted with the presidency, which in my eyes is leaning toward Clinton. This is why I believe Clinton will win this election.
Source 1: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0
Source 2: http://time.com/4508467/election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-map/
Source 3: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/presidential-election-odds-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-us-polls-who-will-win-polling-best-latest-a7379401.html
I think that Hillary will win the election by a margin of about 60% of the electoral votes. Generally speaking I've noticed that her ideas are supporting of much more progressive ideas especially on social issues. This would mean that on average she would appeal to people in larger cities on average. What this would do is make it so that she will win the high population states. These issues include gay marriage, LGBT rights, abortion, and college affordability. These are issues that are important to younger and more progressive voters who honestly are just in more populated states than others. Republicans are generally afraid of Trump doing things that are too far from their views and democrats just don't want to vote republican. As a result, I'd say that his chances of winning are low just based upon the character that people seem to see in him. What Hillary needs to do honestly is cut to crap on her "high and mighty" looks whenever she debates with Trump, it makes people think badly of her and can scare away people who might have supported her.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the election and here's how. For starters, her much more level headed approach to the campaign has already given her a huge advantage. Trump has been very vulgar throughout the campaign and he thus drove away many moderates. This will hurt his campaign as much as it helps Clintons. As for data, Clinton will win Arizona and Florida at least. There will be others, but these are a few key ones. Lastly, she will campaign hard for Florida because if she wins this, her odds of overall victory are very good.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-republican-holdouts-20160520-snap-story.html
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/almost-every-swing-state-is-a-must-win-for-trump-now/
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/early-voting-statistics-2016-election/
I believe that Hillary Clinton is going to win the 2016 presidential election. The polls are greatly in her favor right now, most showing her leading by a considerable gap, such as the one done by Pew Research Center, giving her a 63%-34% lead over Donald Trump (1). However, despite the fact that the majority believes she will win, most citizens think it will be a close election (1). As a result of this, Clinton will have to work very hard to ensure her victory. One strategy she will use to accomplish this is by taking advantage of Trump’s scandals. What he said about sexually harassing women has cost him the endorsements of several republican leaders, some of which have asked him to step down as republican nominee (2). Clinton can gain from this by targeting people who are republican but against Trump. Since her policies are more mild, it is possible that she will succeed in gaining the vote of some dissatisfied republicans. Another strategy that Clinton has been using and will continue to employ is attempting to gain the vote of some of the swing states. A compilation of polls has shown that Clinton is leading in battleground states such as Florida, Colorado, and New Hampshire (3). I believe that Clinton will win the swing states Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Those states would add a lot to her electoral college vote.
The issue that I feel will be the most important to voters in this election is the economy. 84% of voters say that they feel the issue is very important to their vote in 2016 (4). Also, Clinton and Trump’s stances on this particular issue are very different. Both candidates have said that they will create more jobs, however, Trump has given little specifics on how he will accomplish that (5). Clinton, on the other hand, has described in much detail how her 100-days job plan will work . Not only has she given specifics of her idea, she has given a strict time-frame for accomplishing it, which makes it appear more realistic. This will be in the minds of voters when election day arrives, and it will benefit Clinton.
1:http://www.people-press.org/2016/10/14/in-presidential-contest-voters-say-basic-facts-not-just-policies-are-in-dispute/
2:http://www.theatlantic.com/liveblogs/2016/10/trumps-tape-scandal-the-latest-updates/503480/
3:http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states
4:http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/4-top-voting-issues-in-2016-election/
5:http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/2016/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-on-the-economy/
I always want to take the opposing position so I'm going to say Trump is going to win. (I do not what so ever actually believe this nor do I support Trump.) It is true that Clinton is predicted to have a 81.2% chance of winning the election which is huge compare to Trumps meager 18.7%(1). But we've seen miracles before, like how Trump was nominated to be the candidate despite the GOP's majority disapproval(2). At this point Trump would have to win all of the swing states to possibly win the election, which isn't out of the realm of possibility, however it is very unlikely at this point(3). Even if Trump does lose the fire and anger of his supporters will burn on to the point that people are talking about a "revolutionary war," his supporters say they will march on the capitals and do whatever needs to be done to get Clinton out of office because "she doesn't belong there"(4). Trump himself won't accept any outcome except his victory, he even claims that the election is rigged and that has riled up many of his supporters, so much so they some have made the claims of "doing whatever it takes to get reformation, but sometimes with reformation comes bloodshed"(4). Even if he does lose hes already left his mark on America with increasing rates of Islamophobia and anti-muslin hate crimes(5). Not to mention his numerous sexist comments towards women and his all to well known "locker room talk" and how it prolongs and justifies rape culture(6). So all in all Trump may not win the election in the way that he will be in the white house, but he will leave his make in US history for now, if not for years to come. Who knows maybe we'll see Trump return in 2020? (I personally believe Trump 20never would be preferable if you know what I mean. I'm sorry if this post is totally besides the point I just really didn't want to write another thing about Clinton because it seems repetitive.)
1.http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
2.http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/breaking-trump-likely-to-be-banned-from-future-republican-debates/
3.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/almost-every-swing-state-is-a-must-win-for-trump-now/
4.http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/28/us/politics/donald-trump-voters.html?_r=0
5.http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/05/09/donald_trump_and_the_rise_of_anti_muslim_hate_crimes.html
6.http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2016/10/13/what-did-donald-trump-reveal-about-progress-for-women/progress-would-be-accepting-that-trumps-locker-room-talk-illustrates-rape-culture
In my opinion, the winner of the 2016 presidential election will be Hillary Clinton. Clinton's main strategy, now because of data from the polls, is to campaign in traditionally red or republican states such as Arizona and Utah. This is because she has already locked up the generally democratic states and wants to try and make sure that she will win the election(1). Clinton has a chance in winning some of the traditionally Republican states because of all the scandals and racism that is related to Trump. Many Republicans do not affiliate with Trump and thus do not want to support him. Another of Clinton's main strategies is to get the Democrats to vote because if they do not vote, there is a chance that she will not win. Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats. One other reason why I think Clinton will win is because she has support from President Obama, Michelle Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, who are more popular than she is. One of the most important issues in her campaign is women's and minorities' rights. Another large issue is healthcare and continuing the legacy of Obamacare(2). Some of the key swing states include North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. Florida is leading in Clinton's direction currently, but it has been going back and forth so it is unclear who will win Florida on election day(3). Voters are more likely to vote for Clinton because to most people she seems more qualified. People do not like that Trump is a racist and not respectful to women.
(1)http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-camps-strategy-win-big-election-day/story?id=43029278
(2)https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/
(3)http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/things-stand-key-battleground-states/
Hillary Clinton will be the next US President. I base this in two thoughts, the fact that she is more moderate than Trump, and the fact that she has a better temperament in the public view. I can base this prediction in numbers as well. [1] Current election forecasts show that, even with every swing state awarded to Trump, Hillary would have over 270 votes, the required number to win the presidency. [2] Some election forecasts only give Donald Trump a 15% chance of winning the election, others 9%. [3] And finally, Clinton is suggested two win 49% of the popular vote, which is a sure majority over Trump when third party and independent votes are considered. This success can be attributed to her moderate policy, and promise to improve social rights while in office. Another large consideration will simply be that she is the lesser of two evils.
[1]http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/
[2]http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0
[3]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election. Based on recent polls for three different scenarios, poll with tossups, poll without tossups and consensus by 15 major pundits, Clinton will have more electors that Trump by at least 30 [1]. The Clinton Campaign and her PAC, Priorities USA are allocating more funds into late tv ads for Georgia and radio ads targeted at the African American population in an attempt to win over Georgia [2]. They are also working on Arizona, as both Arizona and Georgia are diversifying fast and the Democrats are looking to redraw the usual electoral landscape and possibly take back Congress. While Clinton’s polls have been surging in Arizona, Utah and Georgia, her campaign is deciding not to focus on Utah because they believe the state is only up for grabs because of its Mormon population and would probably swing back to the conservative side after this election. They don’t view it as a state that they could eventually transform.
I think one of the issues that is most important to voters as this election comes to a close is the increasing amount of women that are accusing Trump of sexual assault. Clinton has said that she is not worried about responding to new information about Trump and she is willing to just let him destroy himself [2]. Trump has gone on and denied all of the claims from women saying he sexually assaulted them, but many of his original Republican supporters are pulling back and “un-endorsing” him [3]. This includes many Republican elected officials, including governors, House members and senators. Based on this trend of un-endorsing, Trump may continue to lose supporters and that may cost him the election.
Also, from this conglomeration of polls and forecasts that the New York Times has pulled together [4], Clinton will have 272 electoral votes from likely Democratic states, which is enough to win the election. This does not include the tossup states that she also could win. Though most of the polls agree that Clinton is most likely going to win Florida, Nevada and North Carolina, these are still regarded as tossups so they are not counted as likely Democratic. If Clinton does win these three states however, she would have 322 electoral votes, way more than enough to win the election.
[1]http://www.270towin.com/news/2016/10/26/state-of-the-race-in-3-maps_401.html#.WBNoBdArLnA
[2]http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-non-response-230195
[3]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/08/more_republicans_un-endorse_trump_132009.html
[4]http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0
I believe that Trump will win the 2016 Presidential Election. I am saying this only after learning of the FBI's decision to reopen the investigation of Hillary Clinton. I believe that Trump will capitalize on this new development, and I think this further proves to independents that Clinton is not trustworthy and will sway a good amount of their vote. I also believe that more information about Hillary's scandals will come out in the coming days. I believe that Trump will win swing states such as Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico, and even add some important democratic leaning states like Pennsylvania. As Fox News states, as Wikileaks has divulged Clinton's emails in the past weeks Clinton has seen a little drop in the poles, this FBI development could be huge (1). Also, I think a huge thing about the FBI investigating Clinton DURING the election is that voters would rather as presidential candidate not be investigated by the FBI, as CNBC states this investigation may just hand the election to Trump due to the timing of this information (2). As the 2016 election forecast states, Clinton is certainly ahead at the time, but Trump is gaining ground with every new revelation (3).
1. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/28/fbi-reopens-investigation-into-clinton-email-use.html
2. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/latest-clinton-email-probe-could-hand-the-election-to-trump-commentary.html
3. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
I think that Hillary Clinton will be the winner of the 2016 election. She is (currently) ahead of him in the polls by a fairly solid 5 points ahead of him in the polls [1]. A major part of her chance at winning is the fact that her campaign is much better funded than Trumps' is. Over the course of her campaign, she has managed to gather over $900 million to help her run, whereas Trump is only a bit over $600 million [2], despite his many businesses being used to promote his campaign. Another significant factor in why I think she is going to win the is massive amounts of endorsements she has gotten, even managing to be endorsed by 3 of 5 living presidents [3] All of these things (and more) combine to create the large amount of support that she and her campaign has, which will, in the end, win her the election
[1] http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls
[2] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-1-billion-fundraising_us_58098273e4b0cdea3d86a47f
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hillary_Clinton_presidential_campaign_endorsements,_2016
I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 Presidential Election. I believe she will win this in many ways, one of which being the swing states. I believe she will win Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (1). All of these states have high chances of tipping the election, and will likely result in her gaining the necessary electoral votes to defeat Trump. Her chances of winning California are also large, which will most likely mean she is even more likely to win the election through electoral votes. Americans support these chances, and my opinion as well. A CNN poll found 7/10 voters believe she will win the presidency next month. 93% of her supporters, and 68% of the nation expects her to win. Even 72% out of a group of Trump backers say she we win as well. (2). I believe that she will also win due to her stance on issues. Hillary wants to increase taxes on the wealthy, and this will ring big with the middle to low classes. Most voters are middle class. She also wants to create jobs in renewable energy, which will ring big with environmentalists, and the middle class. Her wanting to create jobs will ring big with the middle class as well. (3). I believe that Hillary Clinton will be the winner of the election, and I am looking forward to seeing in November.
(1).http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
(2).http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/25/politics/hillary-clinton-2016-election-poll/
(3).http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37468751
I think that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency, mainly because of how far ahead in the polls she is (1). Hillary will likely continue to capitalize on the many scandals that Trump has had, such as the "hot mic" tape that was released (2). In addition, in my opinion, Clinton has more reasonable and plausible policy plan. The fact that her policies are more reasonable and moderate than Trump's will likely help Clinton win over some of the remaining undecided vote. As long as Clinton doesn't have a major scandal, I think there is very little chance she will lose this election. Of the swing states, I think Clinton will win Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada, as these states have been Clinton-leaning for a while (3). I think Trump will win Arizona and Ohio because Clinton has never had a solid lead in those states (1). I think Utah will either go to Trump or McMullin, but not Clinton.
(1) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus
(2) https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-recorded-having-extremely-lewd-conversation-about-women-in-2005/2016/10/07/3b9ce776-8cb4-11e6-bf8a-3d26847eeed4_story.html
(3) http://www.cnn.com/election/interactive-electoral-college-map/
I think that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election. AN article by the New York times shows that based on the most recent polls, Clinton has a 91% chance of winning the presidency(1). Although other models show her with a less chance of winning, she still has a great lead in all of the predictions. I think that Clinton’s strategies for winning would be to focus on her policy plan and making herself seem like a better person than Donald Trump. In an article written recently in the news, it also emphasizes that Clinton is working to gain the Latino vote which can help her win or gain votes in the battleground states(2). Another important strategy for Clinton at this point in the election is to encourage all voters to go out and vote in the election(4). Since Clinton is currently ahead in most predictions and polls, it is important for her campaign that many people vote to make the chances of a Trump upset less likely. According to polls, the top issues important to voters in this election are the economy, foreign policy, and health care(5).If Clinton can convince voters that her plan for these issues is the most reasonable and the better option for this country, she will have a greater ability to sway votes of people who are undecided and those in the swing states. Winning swing states will also be important to a Clinton victory, and some of the most pivotal states to win include Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio(3). In this article, it also states that Clinton has a 94% chance of winning election if she wins Florida and has only 28% chance of winning election if she loses Florida.
(1) http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
(2) https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-campaign-makes-final-push-for-latino-votes-232227919.html
(3) http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-top-must-win-states-for-trump-and-clinton/
(4) http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/clinton-appears-cusp-commanding-victory-poll-finds/
(5) http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/4-top-voting-issues-in-2016-election/
I believe, like all of my other classmates, that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election. The polls indicate that she is ahead by a staggering 14 points (1). Fox News claimed that she was only ahead by four in a recent report, but their numbers do not match up with the majority of other polls done by less bias news sources (1). Another strong indicator of this fact is that even if Trump wins every swing state as well as the traditionally Republican states, he still will not have enough electoral votes to win (2). I think the main issues that will lead to Clinton’s victory are immigration and human rights issues, which are some very large differences in Trump and Clinton’s campaigns. I think another factor contributing to Clinton’s prospective win is the fact that many Republican leaders and former presidents have actively shared their refusal to support Trump, which correlates with a portion of traditionally Republican voters not supporting him as well, which lessens his chance at a victory (1).
Out of all the battleground states, I think Clinton stands a good chance of winning most of them, including Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Nevada, and Wisconsin, among others (3). According to polls in these states Clinton stands a promising chance of winning them over, irregardless if they are traditionally Republican states (3). Clinton has been campaigning frequently in these states over the last month in anticipation of the election, which will help her overall win 270 electoral votes and become the first Madam President.
1-http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/27/hillary-clinton-enjoys-staggering-14-point-lead-over-donald-trum/
2-http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-the-presidential-race-tightening/
3-http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states
I believe that Hillary Clinton will be the winner of the 2016 presidential election. Currently Clinton is only reported to be at a 2% lead, but I believe that she will win this election, in the end, due to the electoral votes in the states that support her (1). According to recent polls, 23 states are solid Democrats or lean Democrat, while 22 states are solid Republicans or lean Republican. Even though the number of states that both Trump and Clinton hold support from are very close, the 23 Democratic states have a total of 272 electoral votes, whereas the 22 Republican states only have 179 electoral votes. If every state votes for their respective party, Clinton will have fulfilled the requirement of 270 votes, as well as beating out Trump by almost 100 votes (2). I believe that if Clinton continues to strategically use Trump's scandals against him, she will be able to hold out her lead for the remainder of this election. Many of the things Trump has said recently have been very off-putting to many Republican leaders who have since announced that they will not be voting for Trump (3). I believe that the most significant issues to voters are issues regarding social rights. Trump is a notorious conservative and has clearly expressed his degrading stances towards many minorities, women, and LGBTQ+. Many voters nowadays are more progressive thinkers, and side more with Clinton on these issues because they see Trump as hateful. Thus, through the capitalization of Trump's mistakes, Clinton has been momentously gaining support and I believe that she will continue this strategy to win. Additionally many polls show that Clinton is gaining support from many of the swing states, and I believe that she has a high chance of winning over the majority of the swing states, including Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Florida. The only states I believe are questionable are Iowa and Ohio, which will most likely go to Trump, and Utah, which will most likely go to Evan McMullin (4). However, regardless of if she wins over any of these swing states, Clinton will still have more than enough votes to beat Trump and win this election.
(1) https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/who-is-winning-the-presidential-election-so-far/
(2) http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-october-26/
(3) http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/10/where-republicans-stand-on-donald-trump-a-cheat-sheet/481449/
(4) http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-evan-mcmullin-utah-20161027-story.html
I believe there is too much evidence to prove that Hillary Clinton will most likely win this election, and by the looks of it, everyone else agrees with this sentiment. Clinton has had a rocky campaign course, with scandals trying to drag her down and with Trump's consistent poking and prodding to get under her skin. Despite all of this, she has still come out strong. I visit fivethirtyeight.com religiously, and it currently has Clinton at a 78.9% chance of winning (1). This has fluctuated wildly within the last week, and with nine days left to go, we still have no idea how her chances will end up. I do believe, however, that Trump has a long enough list of faults that his grip on the race is slipping. Numerous women has opened up to speak against him about sexual assault (2). Sadly, this hasn't deterred all of his supporters, but it has turned away many of them, specifically the women who were voting for him. Clinton also has done a great job targeting specific voters, not only those who were supporting her already, but also those who were split between the two candidates (3). She is also more appealing to those women who were originally voting for Trump, but are no longer due to sexual assault allegations. None the less, this election day will be one to remember for years to come. We have never seen two candidates as colorful as these two.
(1) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
(2)http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/10/all-the-women-accusing-trump-of-rape-sexual-assault.html
(3)http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clintons-campaign-to-target-women-voters-wary-of-donald-trump/
I think that Hillary clinton will win the 2016 presidential election. I think that she will win by a pretty big margin too. She may not be the most liked and appreciated person in politics, but compared to trump she is in general more liked. This may be because of the way Trump talks and how his past is kinda rough to be a politician and a leader. I think that Hillary will win by continuing to bring up problems with trump’s past and different allegations. I think that she will get people to come out and vote not because they want to vote for her, but because they don’t want trump to win. I think she will do whatever she can do to avoid talking about her email scandals and other sketchy topics of hers. In some of the websites i have seen Hillary Clinton is chances of winning is 71%. In one of the websites I visited, it talked about why Trump was going to win. They discuss how because of Hillary’s scandalous past people may not want her to win. I know that this is a problem with her, but I feel that it will not give a large enough boost to get people to vote against Hillary. They also talk about the Bernie supporters and how they may move to Trump’s side. I don’t think that this is true because most of his supporters are young, so they already tend to vote Liberal and they mostly won't like trump. I have seen a poll where about 56% of Bernie supporters said they were going to vote for Hillary and 30is% were undecided. I feel like the more they see of the accusations they will sent to vote more for her.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/416867/five-reasons-why-hillary-wins-2016-myra-adams
http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/
I think that Clinton will win the 2016 election. She has a pretty strong lead in electoral votes with states that are strongly in her favor. 258 compared to Trump's 163 [1]. So Trump would have to win almost all the toss up states to win the election which is highly unlikely. That's why an important strategy that Clinton must take is campaigning in swing states where she has slight lead. She can focus on a few states like Wisconsin, Florida, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Unlike Trump if she wins just two of those states she would win unlike trump who has to carry all 9 to win. Issues that I think will be more relevant to swing voters are issues of character. 60% to 70% of voters see her as untrustworthy [2]. This is an issue she has to overcome if she wants to get the votes she needs. The swing states I think Hillary will get are Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Florida and Trump will win the rest.
[1] http://www.270towin.com/
[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/25/4-brutal-poll-numbers-that-greet-hillary-clinton-at-the-democratic-national-convention/
I think that Clinton is going to win the 2016 presidential election. I think that at this point in the campaign it is obvious that she is the more qualified and overall better choice. It is crucial that Clinton spends the remainder of the campaign in the swing states to ensure her landslide victory. Clinton is predicted to receive 10 of the 18 swing states (1). These states electoral votes will surely secure her win. The majority of Clinton supporters are minorities, the biggest split between Clinton and Trump supporters is the race of the person (2). The next biggest split would be between whites with a college education who tend to lead more towards Clinton, than those without who tend to lean toward Trump (2). It is important that Clinton emphasizes the importance that those minorities show up to the polls. 538 has Clinton's chances of winning as 70% (3). That is based off of who they deem as likely voters, as long as those people show up to the polls I think its cleat that she will be the winner of the 2016 presidential election.
(1)https://www.willhillarywin.com/tagged/swing-states/
(2)https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/the-demographic-groups-fueling-the-election/
(3)http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election. Based on the in-depth predictions of FiveThirtyEight, Hillary has a 71.4% chance of winning, giving her a large advantage over Trump (1). For this to come true, all she needs to do is hold onto the states that are predicted to vote for her and prevent Trump from getting the swing states. According to Andrew Prokop, she needs to win the solid Democrat states as well as Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire to ensure she wins the election (2). To aid in winning these states, she could try to win the Latino vote. Though Latinos historically have had low voter turnout and are frequently underrepresented in polls, recent elections hae seen a rapid increase in voter turnout (3). If Clinton is able to get a high voter turnout with Latino voters, assuming they are likely to vote for her, she will have a higher chance of winning.
1: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
2: http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/7/13533618/hillary-clinton-270-electoral-votes-presidential-election
3: https://www.willhillarywin.com/2016/11/06/silent-majority-of-latinos-poised-to-swing-2016-election/
Even though I am doing this late I would like to give you my prediction that I believed in strongly. I very much believed that Hillary Clinton was going to win and I really wanted her to win. And all the polls had her winning by quite a bit. I did not expect Trump to win. I did not think America that crazy as to elect Donald as president. I thought she was going to win because her ideas were actually realistic, she does not come off as a racist and a mean person in general. Everyone said she was a liar when Trump was a bigger liar. I think that the topic of the economy and immigration were the biggest issues which Hillary's ways of approaching are better.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/polls.html?_r=0
Yes this is late and yes the results are in but at this time I firmly believed that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency. I believed that Hillary Clinton's ideas really appealed to the younger generation but she really did not cater to those leaning republican, she did so by generalizing Trump's supporters, making her stray further from the middle which a candidate should not do. I believed that the minority people in this country will vote above 85% democrat increasing Hillary's chance if winning immensely. Considering that California, Florida, and New York are blue states Trump will have to win the swing states to even stand a chance.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
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