This blog is for students in Ms. Aby-Keirstead's AP US Government class in Bloomington, MN. It is for students to post their thoughts on current events and governmental affairs. Students should be respectful & think of this forum as an extension of their classroom. The instructor has the same expectations for classroom discussion & blog posts. These posts will be graded for both their academic merit & for their appropriateness.
Pick someone to react to from post 4. Explain why you agree or disagree with their prediction. Be sure to reference at least 2 news sources from this week to justify your answer. Feel free to also check their Electoral College map in our room and to reference it in your answer!
posted by Ms. Aby @ 1:03 PM
This blog is for students in Ms. Aby-Keirstead's AP US Government class in Bloomington, MN. It is for students to post their thoughts on current events and governmental affairs. Students should be respectful & think of this forum as an extension of their classroom. The instructor has the same expectations for classroom discussion & blog posts. These posts will be graded for both their academic merit & for their appropriateness.
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Many may say that Hillary Clinton will win. I want to change it up, and say that Donald Trump is picking up momentum from the reopening case of the emails, there is a higher chance of him winning now. As our textbook says the younger generation does not vote as actively as the older generation, this will help Donald Trump in the election. (1) Many think that the government is corrupt, with this reopening it may push the people’s votes to Donald Trump.
(2) “On a national level, Trump is getting "closer and closer and closer" to Clinton.” This is showing the momentum he is picking up. (3) “Trump holds edge among those planning to vote on Election Day.” This proves my point on the voter turnout for Donald Trump. From My research there is a fair chance that Donald Trump will win.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/07/75-percent-americans-think-u-s-government-corrupt/
http://www.theweek.co.uk/us-election-2016/74067/us-election-polls-will-fbi-inquiry-give-trump-a-boost
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/01/post-abc-tracking-poll-clinton-falls-behind-trump-in-enthusiasm-but-has-edge-in-early-voting/
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The post of the student I read said that Hillary Clinton will win the race. I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the race. This is shown when fivethirtyeight.com states" the results are most consistent with a 3 or 4 percentage point lead for Hillary Clinton"(538)(1). This quote shows that Hillary Clinton is still winning the race; even through her lead is a small one. However, also according to fivethirtyeight.com Trumps chance of getting an Electoral College vote is up 29% in their model(1). This shows that Hillary Clinton has to be careful, because she could lose the race by a small margin. Furthermore, Poltico.com also supports my argument when it states that"But with one week to go until Election Day, Clinton maintains a commanding lead in Penslyvania, a state that Trumps team believed was his for the taking, just a couple months ago"(2). This quote shows that Hillary Clinton still has an advantage in Electoral votes.
1. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/
2. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/trump-clinton-polling-230602
I am responding to a post that said Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election. I disagree with this opinion. Despite the recent reopening of Clinton’s scandals, I still believe she will win the election. Clinton still has a 69.5% chance of winning the presidency according to fivethirtyeight (1). The person in the post I am responding to predicted Trump would win states such as Pennsylvania (77.9% chance of a Clinton win), New Mexico (85.9% of a Clinton win), and Colorado (74.1% chance of a Clinton win)(1). PoliticusUSA (admittedly a seemingly Liberal leaning website) says that unless Clinton’s email says “LOL. I was the shooter on the grassy knoll”, there is “nothing that would stop her from winning the election” (2). I can not deny that Clinton is not the most trustworthy candidate in recent years, but I strongly believe she is the superior choice in this election, and the statistics show that there is a high chance of her victory.
(1).http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
(2).http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/28/real-reason-clinton-email-scandal-trump.html
I agree with Willa in thinking that Hillary Clinton will win the election on November 8. However, now I disagree slightly with her swing state analysis. Though I do agree that Clinton will probably win Pennsylvania and New Mexico, I don’t think Clinton will win Ohio, based on recent forecasts [1]. I also predict that Clinton will win Nevada. Though Trump’s “locker room talk” audio caused him to go down in the polls in the past few weeks, Clinton is not free of her own scandals. Last week, FBI director, James Comey, disclosed that the FBI had reopened investigation into Clinton’s 30,000 deleted emails. This caused a drop in support for Clinton, but will not likely change the outcome of the election [2]. It just makes it much closer and harder to predict. While about a third of likely voters say they are less likely to support Clinton because of this, 63% say it makes no difference. Though only 7% of Clinton supporters say it may change their vote, this number is much higher in groups already predisposed to not vote for her. In conclusion, I agree with Willa and still think that Hillary Clinton will win the election, but I believe it is a lot closer now than it was last week.
[1]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus
[2]https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/30/hillary-clinton-lose-election-fbi-email-investigation
I am responding to a post that said Clinton will win the election. I agree with Katie Branwick. According to The Sun, there is an up-to-date poll tracker that shows Clinton at 46.2 percent overall and Trump behind at 45.6 percent overall (1). She isn’t leading by a considerable gap, but she is still leading the polls. Katie was right the scandals of Trump’s did work to some advantage for Clinton, they made her look better. The polls seem to be unusually volatile and comparing the two candidates gives voters two choices: choose between comparable “evils” or pivot away from whatever appalling thing Trump said or whatever frighteningly glaring weakness he has exhibited with a whiny “but Hillary” (2). People say the race will be close and I believe them, either way I have feeling it will be an interesting election day, and the next four years won’t be boring.
1. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1906975/us-election-2016-latest-polls-odds-trump-clinton/
2. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/zorn/ct-donald-trump-wins-loses-zorn-perspec-1102-md-20161101-column.html
I agree with what Sophie Gleason said about the election. I think that Clinton will win, even after the recent scandals. It may hurt her chances in Nevada and North Carolina, but I still think she can take Florida, which would be critical. The fact that she remains a center left candidate will help, as she can pull in far left, centrists, and even moderate right wingers. Her policies on minimum wage can pull in the Sanders supporters, and her more right wing positions on the military can help her with the other side, who may be opposed to voting for Mr. Trump. Finally, although Clinton may have been hurt by the recent email leak, Trump is still hindered by the Access Hollywood tape. Polls say Clinton is ahead, and I believe she will stay there.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/crystal-ball-electoral-college-ratings
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/
In response to Tanner Hellickson, who predicted that Donald Trump would win the 2016 election, I have to disagree. He claims that Clinton’s email scandal’s reemergence in the election race is going to greatly improve Trump’s chances of winning, which is not entirely true. At the time his post was written, there was no hard evidence to point out that there was anything negative in these emails, just that the FBI was reopening the investigation in case they came across something that could implicate Clinton, and they still have not come across anything that could show that (1). The truth is, these emails are a small scale scandal compared to all of the scandals that have plagued Donald Trump’s campaign throughout the election season, even within the last couple of weeks (2). According to political analysts, this recent reopening of the investigation will not greatly impact her chances of winning, unlike what many conservatives thought (2). In the original post, Tanner claims that Trump’s chances of becoming President will only increase with “every new revelation” that comes out about Clinton, but there have been no other scandals unearthed, and no new information from this so called “scandal”.
In terms of who will win which swing states, I think they could honestly go either way, so I can’t necessarily disagree with him in that regard. One thing that bothered me, however, was his claim that Trump could even win some traditionally Democratic leaning states, to which I disagree. I think if a traditionally democratic state ended up voting for Trump, we would truly be living in a different universe, because Trump is one of the most conservative and far right wing candidates the Republican party has had in a very long time, so it would be highly unlikely for a democratic state to align themselves with him.
1.http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/hillary-clinton-huma-abedin-emails-fbi.html
2.http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/10/why_the_weiner_emails_won_t_matter.html
Jocelyn talked about how she thought Clinton will win the election, and I agree with her. One of her first points was that Clinton will gain votes due to many recent scandals involving Trump. The main recent scandal for voters with Trump is that he has multiple sexual misconduct accusations. In an article from the HuffingtonPost, all of the 16 sexual assault accusations are talked about in detail (1). I agree with Jocelyn, and I do think that all of the statements from the women are going to be a deciding factor for voters. As a result, I think that Hillary will gain more voters as less people will support Trump.
Later on in Jocelyn's blog post she talks about how she thinks that Clinton will win North Carolina. I also agree with this, as I think that Clinton will gain the African American vote there. According to the most recent United States Census, 22.1% of people in North Carolina are African American (2). With nearly a quarter of the population being Africans Americans it is vital that Clinton gains their vote. I think that she will be successful in this due to her joint campaign with Michelle Obama, which Jocelyn referenced in her blog.
Overall, I completely agree his Jocelyn’s opinions. I think that Clinton will win the election and will will North Carolina. Due to Clinton’s work with her campaigns and the recent scandals involving Trump I think Clinton will win the election.
(1) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/a-running-list-of-all-the-women-whove-accused-donald-trump-of-sexual-assault_us_57ffae1fe4b0162c043a7212
(2)http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37
After reading some of my classmates’ posts I find that I still agree with them that Hillary Clinton will win. However, I don’t agree with the certainty with which they say it. In recent days the FBI director has said that the case of Clinton’s emails will be reopened. Now reopening in the case is a scandal in and of itself, but it has again reminded the people of Clinton's scandal and made them question the honesty of the candidate. So with that, Trump has gained momentum and momentum is something very important for pollsters and campaigns especially this close to election day (1). Also, some of the hopeful swing states that were close to blue are now beginning to become more red in recent polls (1). There is also a chance that there is a “silent majority” of working class white people, most of trump supporters fall into this category, in some of the blue states what could change the game (2). Personally I think that Florida will be critical to watch during election day because it has changed party hands in recent polls and I am typing this Florida has now become more red, when before it was leaning blue. So, this election will be more of a nail bitter than most other posts said.
(1) http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/united-states-elections-2016-us-elections-news-results-polls/Is-the-unthinkable-thinkable-What-Donald-Trump-needs-to-do-to-win-US-presidential-election/articleshow/55221626.cms
(2) http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/donald-trump-path-to-270-scenarios/
(In response to Lily Williams’ post)
I agree with Lily, I believe that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election. As of November 3, just five days before the election, she has a 66.7% chance of victory (1). Lily made the assessment that Clinton’s rise in the polls has not been due to anything related to political issues or her policies, but it is instead due to focus on scandals. I agree with this. The election is very soon, and with all three debates over, most people have already made up their minds. In fact, polls show that in the last two elections, the majority of voters made their decision over a month before the election (2). This means that many people already know how they feel about the candidates’ stances on issues, and so swaying their vote would take something else, like a scandal. Trump has faced no shortage of these, especially with the release of his “locker room talk” video. This will work in Clinton’s favor when election day comes.
Lily also said that she thought Clinton would have more success in the swing states because she has more moderate views than Trump. I believe this to be true. Swing states such as Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan are predicted to be won by Clinton (3). Winning the majority of the battleground states would result in Clinton’s victory in the election.
1: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
2:https://www.quora.com/When-on-average-do-US-voters-make-their-minds-about-who-to-vote-for
3:http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states
There was a blog post that forecast Trump was the winner of the election. I disagree with this, because even though the investigation into Clinton's emails has been reopened, FiveThirtyEight still predicts a 66% chance of victory for Clinton (1). In addition, the post used Fox News as a news source, which is notorious for having Republican bias. Of course, this prediction put Trump at an advantage. Despite the reopening of the investigation, Clinton has handled it very professionally, and there has not been any new evidence to prove Clinton harmed national security or is more untrustworthy (2). Also, Clinton's main scandal is the FBI investigation. Meanwhile, Trump has various scandals regarding sexist statements and behavior, as well as possible sexual assault allegations. But, Clinton's investigation has eclipsed this, and people have forgotten about Trump's conduct with public relations and foreign policy. Finally, the post claims that Trump will win most, if not all, of the swing states for this election. I believe that this is a stretch, because it seems highly unlikely that Trump will win traditionally democratic states, since most moderate Republicans are tending to not vote with Trump. Although he will definitely win some swing states that are traditionally Republican, I question whether the swing state votes in the Electoral College will be enough to give him a definitive victory.
(1): http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
(2): http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2016/10/james_comey_and_donald_trump_are_trashing_hillary_clinton_and_the_rule_of.html
I agree with Anussa R's post on how Hillary Clinton will win the election. In Anussa's post, she stated that the multitude of scandals Trump has immersed himself in would contribute to Clinton's win. Trump has already tainted his image greatly with all of his scandals, like the sexual harassment accusations. Even with the recent re-opening of the FBI investigations involving Clinton and her email scandal, public polls from CNN still show Clinton winning with at least a 2% lead over Trump (1). Furthermore, Trump has lost major support from many Republican leaders because of his scandals and ludicrous remarks, which is helping Clinton to a win. Additionally, Clinton and her campaign managers have been spending and will be spending this week campaigning in many blue leaning battleground states in order to secure their support for her (2). Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea Clinton, Bernie Sanders, President Obama, Tim Kaine, and VP Joe Biden will be travelling all across the United States and especially targeting states like Colorado, Ohio, North Carolina, and Arizona to increase support for Clinton's campaign. In Anussa's post, she predicted that Clinton would win over Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina, and with the amount of campaigning Clinton is doing in these battleground states over the last week, I agree with her as well.
(1) http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-election-2016/index.html
(2) http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-election-events/
I agree with Ingrid that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election because of her experience and because overall, people see her as a better fit for president even if they do not agree with her on all the issues. According to FiveThirtyEight, Clinton currently has a 65.8% chance of winning on November 8th (1). This percent has decreased since the last blog post (at 82.2%) due to her latest email scandal. Before the recent scandal, Clinton's odds to win were looking very good, but now they are less sure. Trump could win if several key states go his way (2), such as Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa as well as some traditional blue states. I disagree with Ingrid that Trump will lose Texas, though, because despite the large Latino population in Texas, Trump is still favored by 94% (1). However, it still looks as though Clinton will win, but by a smaller margin. Compared to Trump, Clinton has extensive government and political experience (3). While this has sometimes hurt Clinton during the campaign, I think that many undecided voters will end up voting for Clinton because she has the most experience and those votes will give her enough votes to become president.
(1) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
(2) http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/donald-trump-path-to-270-scenarios/index.html
(3) http://www.biography.com/people/hillary-clinton-9251306
I agree with Roland that Hillary Clinton will win the election. Although the recent continuation of Clinton's email scandal has once again made many skeptical of her campaign, I have no doubt that she will win over most of the states' electoral votes. (1) According to FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast, Clinton is predicated to have a 65.6% chance of assuming the presidency, whereas Trump has only a 34.3% chance. The site shows that the most significant tipping points are currently in Nevada, North Carolina, and especially Florida. Winning the vote of these swing states can give Clinton an even bigger advantage. (2) According to the most recent New York Times update, the presidential prediction states that Clinton has an 86% chance of winning and Trump a mere 14%. Observing the data provided by polls, this news source adds that beginning in October, a favorable opinion of Clinton skyrocketed while those of Trump's plummeted. This is partially due to the ongoing scandals that began to inundate Trump's campaign, and the mature and knowledgeable comments Clinton made in response.
All the evidence from numerous news sources point to a triumph for presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. With victories over the swing states, she will most likely end up being named the next president of the United States.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
I am responding to a post, who’s writer believes that Trump will be the victor in this election. I personally disagree, and stand by my previous post in which I think that Clinton will end up winning this coming Tuesday. According to a poll given by CBS News, Clinton currently has a 3% lead on Trump (1). The State of Florida, which has been a swing state for some time has made recently pulled for Clinton (2). Trump still has on going issues to deal with as the presidential election comes to a close. Throughout his campaign he has offended many groups of people: women, prisoners of war, the disabled, African-Americans, Mexican Americans, Muslims, Asians and others (3). Also during the debates and his campaign speeches Trump rarely speaks on his polices and what he will do to “make America great again.” Another reason Clinton will win is the difference she and Trump handle crisis. In the reopening of the investigation involving the emails, Clinton as remained professional, though it was undoubtedly a mistake on her part. On the other hand when confronted with previous statements, Trumps declines any truth in what he said despite evidence against him. After the months of debates, commercials, new stories and rallies, I believe that Clinton will come out as the next president; mostly due to the fact that she has more experience, but also because after all of Trump’s scandals many will flock to vote for Clinton instead.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/five-days-to-go-the-presidential-race-tightens-cbsnyt-poll/
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/
http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/27/politics/donald-trump-insults-groups-list/
I am responding to Emily’s post, and her prediction that Clinton will win presidency. With election so near, I completely agree with the fact that Clinton will take the traditionally democratic states in both the west and the north based on a prediction map, and looking at the state's’’ history of voting. (1) I agree that she will use to her advantage, Trump’s character flaws and mistakes he has made in the past and during his campaign. I agree that many republican voters have since changed their minds and disapproved of Trump, especially his comments about and towards select women that has made the public question him even further. (2) A poll was taken in predominantly southern and republican states, showing before and after approval ratings for Trump throughout scandals, leaked footage, and debates. The poll showed that democrats in certain areas have taken the lead as of October 24. I agree with Emily, that the email scandals may cause a slight distrust in not only the overall public, but democrats as a whole, and Clinton will need to overcome that to solidify support in key groups such as minorities, lower class, and women.
http://www.270towin.com/
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/donald-trump/
I agree with Mia on Clinton winning the 2016 presidential election. I not only agree with her on the election outcome but I also agree that Clinton will use her experience in government and connections with politicians to fuel her campaign for office. Over the course of the two weeks or so, I have noticed that Clinton has cooperated with the current governors of New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michelle Obama to boost support in swing states (1). These strategies have paid off, giving Clinton a current lead in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, so I imagine she will continue to use similar strategies leading into the final days before the election (2). Along with Clinton’s campaign strategy, I also generally agree with Mia on the swing states Clinton is projected to win. When I wrote my prediction last week, I was rather optimistic in saying that Clinton would win most of the swing states. Since the resurfacing of Clinton’s email scandals, I think that her margin of victory in the electoral college will be more narrow. I now agree with Mia that states like Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia will lean towards Trump as reported by updated election forecasts (2). Although I agree on the on these swing states, I disagree with the status of other swing states like Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. These states have become more of a toss up over the past few days. As of now, Trump has a slight lead in the polls in these states (2). Despite a slight difference in opinion over swing states and small changes in projected outcomes, I believe Clinton will still have the electoral votes to win. She has consistently been ahead in the polls, despite the unpredictable nature of this election.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-camps-strategy-win-big-election-day/story?id=43029278
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
I agree with Alyson that Hillary Clinton is going to win the presidential election. First off I thought the statistic that she added saying Clinton had a 91% chance of winning was surprising because I did not know that the chance was so high. I also agree with what she said, saying that in order to win Clinton will need to continue her strategy of focusing on her policy, and making it known that she is a better person than Trump. I also agree, and said in my previous post, that Clinton’s big advantage over Trump is that she has entire minority groups backing her up, and she just needs to make sure they get out and vote. To contribute to the opinion that Clinton is going to win, I read an article talking about how Clinton has won the business world. 1). The article talks about how there would be a lot of uncertainty if people thought Trump was going to win, but people seem certain that things are going to stay the way that they are, and Clinton will win. According to another article from the New York daily news 2), certain states are for sure voting for Clinton because of their consistency of voting Democrat which will help her gain enough electors to win. The article also discussed that people are very unlikely to change their opinions at this point regardless of any scandal, due to the fact that their hatred of the opposing candidate is so high. Due to the points made by Alyson, and the points made in the articles, I stand by my previous opinion that Clinton will win the election.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-fi-business-election-uncertainty-20161103-story.html
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/history-shows-hillary-clinton-win-article-1.2854411
I read Tanner Hellickson's post that Donald Trump would win the election, although Tanner brings up a few fair points, such as how the reopening of Clinton's email scandal could turn the tables against her, I still believe Hillary Clinton will win the election for a few reasons. Firstly I believe the tightening of the race will actually motivate more American's to get out and vote for Clinton. I believe the closer the race comes, more and more Democratic voters who may once have believed Clinton's victory a definite and foregone conclusion will now think twice and will be more likely to vote instead of staying home. Secondly voters are no longer as enthralled with Clinton's email scandal, as Steve Schmidt a GOP strategist put it, “It’s just really unlikely that there is an undecided bloc of voters still weighing Hillary Clinton’s emails. I think everyone made up their minds a long time ago on that subject.” [1] In addition many believe Trump has far out shined Clinton's scandal with, among other things, the video of a highly inappropriate conversation he had with Billy Bush, released relatively recently.[2] This not only upstaged Clinton's scandal but in turn led many prominent Republicans like John McCain to rescind their endorsements.[3] Lastly, I believe Clinton's momentum, although fading is still enough to carry her the final week to election. Despite Tanner's argument for Trump's victory, I still believe Hillary Clinton will win.
Sources:
[1]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/10/31/despite-emails-republicans-still-think-trump-will-lose-heres-why/
[2]: http://theweek.com/articles/658344/hillary-clintons-malodorous-email-scandal-nothing-compared-plague-donald-trump
[3]: http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/08/politics/donald-trump-video-women-remarks-republicans/index.html
(Part 1)
I agree with Ian Klein’s conclusion that Hillary Clinton will win the election, but I think it’ll be a closer race than he predicted, particularly considering the recent revival of Clinton’s email scandal. Specifically, I disagree with his prediction of 5 key swing states: North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, New Hampshire, and Nevada. For all of these, he predicted a Clinton victory, while I predicted a Trump victory.
First, North Carolina. Although in past weeks North Carolina has been viewed as a dead heat, perhaps even a Clinton edge, recent polls have shown that Trump has pulled ahead, one poll even predicting a 7-point Trump lead(1). The reason is simple. It’s not the infamous Bathroom Bill that conflicts with Clinton’s progressive LGBTQ stances, because both have been around for months. The reason that most people are voting for Trump, according to a recent North Carolina poll, is that Trump is now seen as more trustworthy(1), undoubtedly due to the reopening of the FBI’s investigation into Hillary Clinton. This aspect of the campaign has held Hillary Clinton in all sorts of demographics, and I predict it will be enough to tip the scales in North Carolina.
Next, Florida. Although Florida has voted democrat in recent elections, it has always been a contested and critical swing state. In fact, Obama edged out Republican Candidate Mitt Romney by less than 100,000 votes(3). And the graying of America, combined with the regional shift towards sunbelt states such as Florida and Arizona leads me to believe that the republican party has only gained ground in Florida since 2012 and the 2010 census. After all, Trump leads 10 points in the 65 years and older demographic. And if Trump wins Florida, that takes 29 points from Clinton and gives it to him, making his deficit 58 electoral votes smaller. Truth be told, he needs more than 58 points, but I think if Trump does win Florida, the race will tighten considerably.
(Part 2)
Third, Arizona. I don’t have to analyze underlying trends that polls might not reveal for this state, because most polls put Trump ahead. The most recent poll gives him a 46-41 lead, well beyond its margin of error(3). However, Clinton is apparently unprepared to cut her losses in Arizona; in the last week she has doubled her campaign spending in Arizona(5). I can’t imagine an increased ad drive reversing a five-point lead in the week before the election, however, so I’ll predict a Trump victory for The Grand Canyon State.
Fourth, New Hampshire. Although two weeks ago this state was not even a topic of discussion, polls today draw inconclusive results. Admittedly, 4 electoral votes might not make a difference, but should the race tighten further, we can’t discount any votes. Trump has momentum in this state for sure, polls that now show a dead heat gave Clinton a lead as large as 15 points last month(6). Some polls are predicting a Clinton victory, and some a Trump victory, but in North Carolina fashion, Clinton’s email revival again seems to be a turning point. 36% of voters view Trump as Trustworthy to Clinton’s 27%. Like Arizona, it’s a reported dead heat, and in this case I’ll go with the candidate who has closed the gap over the last couple weeks.
Finally, Nevada. Again, like Arizona, I placed more faith in the polls than intuition. Although Nevada voted blue in both 2008 and 2012, a 6-point Trump lead, up 7 points from late september, is difficult to surmount. Admittedly, this poll was conducted shortly after Comey’s announcement concerning Clinton’s server, so there may have been some overcompensation that had since died down. However, considering that whites make up 75% of nevada’s population, compared to the nationwide average of 63%(9), it’s no surprise that Trump has been more successful that previous republican candidates to date.
http://www.wral.com/wral-poll-trump-charges-ahead-in-nc/16183780/
http://www.wnd.com/2016/11/polls-trump-now-seen-as-more-honest-up-7-in-n-c/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_2012
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/the-demographic-groups-fueling-the-election/
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/polls-trump-ahead-arizona-texas-deadlocked-georgia-n677626
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/11/03/polls-trump-catching-up-passing-clinton-nh/93243330/
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/new-hampshire-wbur-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/
http://theweek.com/speedreads/659527/north-dakota-state-capitol-lockdown-14-arrested-after-antidapl-protest
http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data/nevada/demographic.html
I agree with one of my classmates that believes Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election. I also agree with the statements about having President Obama, Michelle Obama, and Bill Clinton help campaign for Hillary Clinton in important swing states. It is important because they are popular politicians and are able to help increase Hillary Clinton's image. They are helping get more people out to vote for her. In fact, President Obama was in Florida on Thursday, November 3, campaigning for Hillary Clinton(1). Obama wants Americans to know how important this election is and that Trump is not qualified to be president. In addition, I also agree that Florida is one of the most important swing states to win in this election. Florida is the most likely tipping-point state. Winning Florida helps ensure Clinton's victory, but it is a must-win for Trump.(2). Lastly, I disagree that it was a waste of time for Pence to go to Utah to campaign. I think it was a good idea for Pence to go to Utah because McMullin is very popular there and is taking Trump's Republican votes(3). Now, because of the email scandal and FBI re-opening of the investigation, the election is going to be closer than expected. However, I still believe Hillary Clinton will obtain enough electoral votes to win the presidency.
(1)http://time.com/4556258/barack-obama-florida-campaign-livestream/
(2)http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-really-really-needs-to-win-florida/
(3)http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/pence-campaigns-utah-stave-mcmullin-momentum-n673621
I have to disagree with Tanner Hellickson, who predicted that Trump would win the 2016 Election. He argues that the reopening of Clinton’s emails will sway the vote enough to make her lose the election. While this recent scandal has hurt her campaign, she still has a 65.6% chance of winning the election, compared to Trump’s 34.4% (1). He also states that the emails will further prove to independents that Clinton is untrustworthy, but most of the voters’ opinions haven’t changed all year (2). The ‘phantom swings’ in polls that Tanner is predicting can be attributed to response bias in the polling system, not the actual opinions of the voters (3). Regarding swing states, I agree that it is a possibility that Trump will win some of the battleground states. However I do believe that it is unlikely that Trump will win democratic leaning states, as his platform wildly differs from that of the typical democrat.
1 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
2 - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-voters-havent-changed-their-minds-all-year/
3 - https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/01/beware-phantom-swings-why-dramatic-swings-in-the-p/
My post is in response to Colden’s prediction that Hillary Clinton will win the election. I agree with him (partly for logical reasons, but also because I cannot even fathom the idea of Trump being president); however, I do have disagreements with his analysis of the state of the election and the pathway by which Clinton will get the 270 electoral votes necessary to win.
I do agree with Colden’s analysis of Hillary Clinton’s campaign strategy. He correctly states that Clinton gained more support as each debate passed (1), and her emphasis on professionalism and experience made a stark contrast with Trump’s image (especially after the tape was released). However, the most important month of an election is November, simply because it contains Election Day. Although Hillary Clinton will likely emerge the victor on this day, the margin of victory will likely be slimmer for her than Obama’s in 2012. Colden’s electoral map reflects this - however, I have some disagreements about his swing-state decisions. I do agree with Colden that Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin will go for Clinton, and that Iowa and Utah will go to Trump. However, the agreements end there.
First, Florida - or as Colden stated in his blog post, “traditionally red Florida.” Florida has not been “traditionally red”: the state voted for Obama twice. Every presidential election in this state for the past 16 years has been close, but race demographics are working in Clinton’s favor. The combined African-American and Hispanic population of Florida accounts for over 30% (2), and these voters are more likely to vote for Clinton based on Trump’s insulting comments about minorities.
Perhaps the most puzzling move in his electoral map was putting Arizona in the Clinton column. If Florida - which based on polls is a very close race - will go Republican, how will Clinton be able to flip Arizona? This a curious decision, because Arizona has, unlike Florida, been “historically red.” (3) Recent polls show Trump holding a lead of 5 points over Clinton, and it is unlikely that she will be able to pull off the upset (4).
Also, Colden put Ohio as a state that Clinton will win. I disagree with this. The most recent and credible polls chosen by Real Clear Politics put Donald Trump ahead by an average of 3.3 points (5). Ohio is home to many non-college educated whites (85% of the population is white in Ohio - 6), a key demographic to Trump’s base. These voters will likely put Trump ahead in the final count.
Colden also put New Hampshire as Republican on his electoral map prediction. However, New Hampshire has voted Democratic in the past three presidential elections cycles, and FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 64.6% chance of winning the state (7). The state’s four electoral votes could be significant in a close election, and Clinton’s surrogates will hold four events in the state in the next week (as opposed to Trump’s two). (8,9) These events are significant, because local news stations will cover these campaign events extensively, giving Clinton more screentime with New Hampshire voters.
Hillary Clinton will likely win the election; the electoral map is simply too much in her favor. There are so many different ways that Clinton can deny Trump 270 electoral votes, whether that be winning Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, or simply winning Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Colden is correct in stating that Hillary Clinton will win, and with so many states too close to call, it is anyone’s guess as to how Clinton will emerge the victor. Therefore, it is admittedly difficult to dispute anyone’s guesses; we can only make conjectures based on what the experts think.
I agree with Katie’s previous post that Hillary Clinton will win the election. For one thing, I agree that Clinton’s heavy targeting of swing states is a very important tactic to ensure her victory. Clinton has the advantage over Trump of maintaining her “swing state firewall” (1). This firewall is a coalition of six states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire) that usually lean Democrat. These states are very crucial to Clinton as they are swing states that she knows she will most likely win, giving her a significant advantage over Trump. With this information, Clinton can also spend more time focusing her campaign on more undecided swing states such as Florida and Ohio (1).
I also agree that targeting the African-American vote is very critical to Clinton’s victory. Especially in swing states, it is crucial that Clinton keep targeting African-Americans to clinch her election. In Florida, for example, 13% of registered voters are African-American, and African-Americans vote for Democrats about 90% of the time (2). This is good for Clinton as she is likely to win most of the African-American votes in Florida. However, the voter turnout rates among African-Americans in Florida has been unusually low from the previous election years (2). Therefore it is very important that Clinton help African-Americans register to vote in order to win swing states and solidify her election.
(1)http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/2/13499942/hillary-clinton-poll-wisconsin-winning
(2)http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-struggles-in-getting-african-americans-to-early-voting-polls-106931
I agree with Seth that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election. According to the New York Times, there is a 85% chance that Clinton wins the election [1]. When taking into account all of the possible combinations of state’s electoral votes and swing states, Clinton has 693 ways to win the election compared to 315 paths to the presidency for Donald Trump [1]. There is also a large number of Latinos who have voted for Clinton in early voting, giving her a strong start in Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, all of which are traditional swing states [2]. I also agree that a main issue that will hand Clinton the election is Trump’s continous alienation of major demographic groups of the population through his comments. These comments and the response by the public is giving Clinton a lead in the polls [3]. Clinton will have to overcome the lack of trust by the public with the new developments released about the email scandal, but she should come out winning the election as a result of the strong feelings by many in the media against Donald Trump
[1]:http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
[2]:https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/early-voting-by-latinos-may-help-clinton-in-several-states/2016/11/03/41be5a00-a1da-11e6-8d63-3e0a660f1f04_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_campaignprint-940pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
[3]:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast/
I agree with Matthew Stiegauf in that Clinton will win the election, and I believe his analysis of Trump's reason for not being attractive toward moderates. Also, it is shown that even with the scandals that voters have already made up their mind about voting. 92% of people have already made up their minds of who they are waiting for, and 62% of voters said the the email scandal of Clinton had no effect on them (1). I also agree with him about that Clinton will win Flordia, but I don't think she'll win Arizona as she is down 3% (2). Even with this being known I think Clinton will still win, mostly for the reasons Matthew expresses. She is better suited for the job and connects better with her audience.
1)http://www.newsweek.com/presidential-election-polls-november-3-clinton-trump-516572
2)http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/
I still hold that Clinton will win the upcoming election, and I’m responding to the post by Tanner Hellickson which says otherwise. Clinton continues to be ahead of the other candidates despite the scandals and the FBI investigation. Although Clinton’s chance of winning has decreased gradually since the third debate which took place on October 19, it currently places her at a 66.5% chance of winning which is an advantage over Trump (1). There has been a steep decline in this percentage within the last week, most likely due to the opening of the investigation, but I doubt that this will be enough to tip the scale in favor of Trump.
Tanner labels the scandal as a major reason for Trump winning the election, but CBS has confirmed disagreements between the FBI agents and superiors at the Department of Justice over how to handle the case in the middle of an election. Whether a full investigation will be launched is unknown, but thus far no charges have been filed (2). With the election being next week, this feud and unclear plan for progression will probably not cause any revelations to come to surface until after the election. The timing of the investigation will therefore not be a major influence aside from the impact it already has had due to initial reactions.
I also saw that one of the sources cited in the post comes from Fox News which isn’t the most unbiased network. It serves the partisan function and has a conservative bias which in turn would prompt the release of an article showing Trump in a good light. Since Fox mainly attracts conservatives, there would be some bias in deciding who will win. The source may be slanted to lead readers to believe Trump is doing better than he is.
Now when it comes to swing states, I disagree with how how he has grouped some of the states. I believe Colorado will be won by Clinton, not Trump, based on recent poll numbers. Arizona and Florida are named top swing states that will decide the election (3). I side with Tanner in how he’s grouped Arizona as being won by Trump. CNN has reported Trump being 5 points ahead of Clinton in the most recent polls there. However, I don’t think Trump will win Florida. CNN has seen a shift in Clinton’s favor there (4). With Florida being a key battleground, I think that this shift will be a significant contributor to Clinton’s chance of winning.
(1) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
(2) http://www.cbsnews.com/news/fbi-finds-emails-related-to-hillary-clintons-state-department-tenure/
(3) http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/final-15-latest-polls-swing-states-decide-election/story?id=43277505
(4)http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/
I agree with my class mate Cheri Wang that Hillary Clinton will win the election on November 8th. While her poll numbers have been falling, Clinton has been ahead for a majority of the presidential race, and I strongly believe this will show on election day. [1]The reason for my confidence is clearly displayed by a New York Times election forecast that currently suggests Clinton will win 322 electoral votes, a whopping 52 more than the needed 270 votes. Election forecasts are not facts, but are good predictors of the electoral vote. [2] Another strong fact is that many sites, namely CNN have Clinton at 272 electoral votes without winning any of the battleground states. This is a comforting thoughts to many democrats or others who simply do not support Trump presidency. The negative nature of this is that some may believe that Clinton will certainly win the election, choose to save time and not vote, thus giving Donald Trump more voters proportionally. Another key issue to consider is Hillary's voting demographic. [3] Between her pickup of the Bernie supporters and her strong race relations, Clinton has won over a lot of citizens who are the least likely in the nation to vote, due to registration problems, or general political apathy. If these people continue the common trend and have a low voting turnout, the election may fall to Trump by default. I believe this is why many citizens, especially young citizens, can say that they have been encouraged to vote in this election more than they have in any other. The conclusion being, if Clinton convinces voters to participate, statistics suggest that she will win the election.
[1] http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
[2]http://www.cnn.com/election/interactive-electoral-college-map/
[3]https://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/09/28/20265/clinton-supporting-super-pacs-target-latino-voters
I am reviewing a student's post that said that he thought that Donald Trump would win this election. I think that he does make some good points of how they reopened the investigation against Hillary Clinton and that this could be a huge blow to her chance of winning some key states like Florida. I think that even if Trump wins Florida he will not be able to win the whole election. I don’t think that states like Colorado and New Mexico will sway Trump’s way because they are already leaning towards Hillary by a good margin by roughly 50%. I definitely think that the states that have Hillary chances of winning by more than 30% will not sway towards Trump. The idea on who you are going to vote come election day are pretty strong. I don’t think that anyone who is planning on voting for Hillary has the slightest thought in their mind that they will vote for trump. The only real way that Trump could win would be a large amount of people pulling their vote from Hillary and voting for a third party candidate like Johnson or Stein.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/30/hillary-clinton-lose-election-fbi-email-investigation
Responding to Tanner Hellickson, I must say that I agree this is a strong point for Trump, but the media has downplayed the event to the extent where it won't be a large enough factor to upset Hillary Clinton's lead. I believe that Gary Johnson will win the election. Hillary and Trump are both more unfavorable than any candidate ever, with Clinton polling at 59% unfavorability and Trump polling at 60% unfavorability (1). Despite this, Johnson still sits far lower than they are in the polls. However, if he wins his home state of New Mexico, he could cause a divide of neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton winning the 270 votes necessary for the election (2). If this occurs, the vote will go to the House, where Johnson will be viewed as a sort of compromise candidate (3). Of course, this scenario isn't the most likely of scenarios, but this election is already crazy enough, why not?
(1) http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/08/31/poll-shows-clintons-unfavorable-rating-nearly-matching-trumps/
(2) http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craziest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/
(3) https://alibertarianfuture.com/2016-election/gary-johnson-elected-president-home-state-new-mexico/
Many have said that Clinton will win the swing states. However, the recent email scandals exposing Clinton have definitely made the split on swing states closer than what was expected. Recent polls have shown that Trump is making progress in these swing states, and that might be enough to win the election (1). I also think that the fact that Clinton is under FBI investigation has turned off many swing voters from voting for her (2). Support for Clinton is only going further down as more information on the emails is released, and her support might drop enough to give Trump a chance at the presidency.
1. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
2. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/fbi-finds-emails-related-to-hillary-clintons-state-department-tenure/
I read Mark Olstad’s blog post about how Clinton will win the election. I agree with his results but have some problems with how he predicts she will win. Mark said that Clinton will campaign in traditionally Republican states. However, with the new flurry of email scandals, this seems unlikely. The election has got much tighter in the past week and so it would be in her best interest to focus on the swing states so those go her way (1). Despite her fall from popularity, I do agree with Mark that she will win key swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania. (2) The only question is, will this be enough to win the election (yes it will). Only time will tell (I will also tell).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/11/01/heres-the-election-day-nightmare-scenario-that-should-terrify-you/
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/
I agree with Katie Brandwick's stance that Hillary Clinton will win. I agree with Katie because of the electoral votes possible, the issues, and the effect that the candidates' scandals have had.
Based on the predicted electoral votes, even if Trump were to win all of the battleground states, it would still not give him the majority he needs to win. As of now he has 179 votes, with a predicted 76 up for grabs. In comparison, Clinton has 283 already. [1]
What Katie said about voter's concerns was true. The economy is the main concern of voters, [2] and both candidates have very different views. [3] I believe that this will be a large factor in the election due to Trump's focus on the economy. However, a group of 370 economists have since agreed that his plan would be disastrous for America. [4] This helps to throw the balance back to Clinton on this front. On the other issues, I also side with Katie because I think that Clinton will win due to her more moderate views than Trump. However, I would argue that the issues are of less importance to voters than previous years. This election is largely focused on the faults of the competitor rather than the pros of the candidates. This is evidenced through the media attention on the Clinton email scandal and Trump's "locker room talk" video. [5]
I still maintain what Katie and I both said in our posts, that Trump's scandals and the support lost in the aftermath will lose him the election. While Clinton's recent email scandal has tipped the scales slightly in his favor, [6] I still believe that it will make the race tighter, but not lost for her. [7]
Sources:
1) http://www.cnn.com/election/interactive-electoral-college-map/
2) http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/4-top-voting-issues-in-2016-election/
3) http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/2016/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-on-the-economy/
4) http://time.com/4555032/economists-against-donald-trump/
5)http://www.cheatsheet.com/politics/mapping-scandals-a-visual-breakdown-of-the-2016-candidates.html/?a=viewall
6)http://www.politico.com/blogs/5-political-numbers-to-watch/2016/10/hillary-clinton-fbi-polls-230481
7) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Although most people have argued that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 election, I am going to argue that Trump will actually be victorious come election day. I believe this due to Trumps rising poll numbers in just about every state. Trump currently has a 35% chance of winning this election according to Fivethirtyeight.com and this number is only projected to rise (1). The reason for the spike in numbers for Trump is due to the continued email developments involving the FBI reopening the investigation of Clinton. Trump has seen new leads come about in key swing states such as North Carolina and Florida, both states that Trump must win. Overall I believe that Trumps numbers will continue to rise coming into election day and he should not be overlooked on election day.
1. http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/09/12/polls-trump-gaining-on-clinton-lead-shrinking/21469878/
2. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
I will investigate Tanner's response to post 4. He argued that Trump would win the election (which I disagree to but let's not get ahead of ourselves). His argument was that Trump would capitalize on the revelation of an FBI investigation of Clinton's emails. This isn't necessarily wrong as it's exactly what he IS doing (1). However, based upon the huge backlash that Comey has received due to his revealing this information, I do not think that the effect is great enough to make up for Trump's electoral deficit. I argued that at least one of either New Mexico and or Nevada would go to Clinton as based upon the polls, the swing was more likely to go in her direction. Tanner argued that they would go to trump which even if they did, wouldn't make up for the deficit. In all likelihood, those states will be divided more or less evenly between both Clinton and Trump. However, Tanner said that Trump would win Pennsylvania. Just based upon my gut, that is wrong and checking the polls, Clinton has 75% of the electorate there so she isn't very likely to lose Pennsylvania (2). Furthermore, the whole business with the FBI investigation is apparently based upon fake documents that were created to damage the Clinton campaign (4). As such, Tanner's I disagree with Tanner's opinion the that the election will be given to Trump due to "revelations" in the last couple of days.
1) http://time.com/4550004/hillary-clinton-email-fbi-reopen-donald-trump-transcript/
2) http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-november-4-duplicate/
3) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
4) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/fbi-clinton-emails-investigation-fake-documents_us_581c85f6e4b0d9ce6fbb32fe
In response to tanner's post, which claimed that Trump will win the Election, I'm inclined to disagree, looking back on the election as a whole, including recent developments. Tanner mentioned the FBI reopening the case on Clinton's private email servers, causing her polling numbers to drop[1]. Fortunately, she already had a stable lead due to the (most recent) scandal of Trump's, namely the release of audio tapes featuring him saying some extremely unpresidential things about women. Tanner also talked about how Trump could possibly win enough swing states to win him the presidency, but, looking at the most recent polls in those states, most of them are split, with each candidate having roughly the same amount of voter support. [2] Tanner also talked about how Trump's chances of winning have been increasing with each new "revelation". Though his numbers have been increasing, it has been by a relatively insignificant amount, not to mention that, beyond the emails, there hasn't really been anything released about her that has had a negitive impact on her polling numbers.
[1] http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/30/new-poll-34-percent-less-likely-to-vote-for-clinton-after-new-email-revelations.html
[2] http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-senate-forecast
I chose to react to Sophie Gleason's prediction that Clinton will win the election. I agree with her in the fact that she is ahead in the polls. I also agree that the Trump hot mic issue will be used to her favor coming up in the election. I agree with her somewhat on the fact that Clinton's stance on issues is more moderate than Trump, and this will win her voters. While this is true, she will not win hardcore conservative voters, and some 3rd party candidates have stances that are more moderate than her own, and they will likely win those moderate voters. She brought up the fact in her post that Clinton would do well, bar another scandal. This week, the email scandal is being talked about again. It is now being reported that her daughter was sent classified email by Clinton, and the email in question has now been deleted (1). This is reigniting the issue, and will not help her with election day fast approaching. Sophie talked about many swing states I agree with, but also brought up Utah. This state could tip the election with the candidate Evan McMullin having a plan to win just one state, and then win the election (2). This week is showing Clinton at a more dangerous place than in the lead. Her latest poll shows her 2 points in-front of Trump (3). I believe in the end like Sophie, she will likely pull this off still, if she can keep the scandals in check that is. However, I am now interested in McMullin more, as this candidate seems to have a shot at winning by just one state, as this race just gets tighter and tighter. I believe it would be interesting, and cool to see someone win the election in Congress, if he just wins Utah, and stops the others from receiving the 270 minimum electoral votes. If it goes into Congress, I believe McMullin, not Clinton will come out on top. I am ready to see what happens Tuesday, and ready to see our future for our next 4 years.
(1). http://ijr.com/wildfire/2016/11/729071-chelsea-clinton-is-suddenly-wrapped-up-in-hillarys-email-scandal-classified-info-sent-to-her-in-now-deleted-email/
(2). http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/evan-mcmullin-tip-2016-election/story?id=43306776
(3). http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/04/fox-news-poll-clinton-ahead-trump-by-two-points.html
I agree with Emily Steward’s prediction that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 election with her campaign strategy. In Emily’s post she argued that Clinton will have to use Trumps comments against him, focus on the swing states, and overcome the email scandals. Emily also mentioned that Clinton has an advantage over Trump by gaining votes from younger citizens, women, and minority groups. I agree that Clinton is able to use the vote from these groups to her advantage, especially in winning swing states. In a recent article, after the early voting by many people, it is found that there was a high percentage of Latino voters who have voted in Nevada(1). This article also mentions that Latino citizens are also voting in much higher numbers in Florida, another key swing state in this election. Also, in regards to Emily’s comment about using Trump’s comments against him, Clinton has been using campaign ads to highlight some of the negative and disrespectful comments Trump has said. Clinton released new ads this week that include some of the most memorable comments, including him responding “I can’t say that” when asked if he treats women with respect(2). In the last days of the campaign Clinton had been working to convince voters that Trump is not the right person for office because of these bad things he has often said. In Emily’s post she also mentions that Clinton needs to overcome the email scandal, which she has struggled to do in the recent week. Since the announcement that the FBI will be investigating Clinton’s email scandal, polls in 6 keys battleground states have swung in Trump’s favor(3). Although Clinton has the advantage in other areas, the impact of her emails is the biggest obstacle that currently stand in her way of winning the election.
(1)http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/05/us/politics/presidential-election.html
(2)http://time.com/4553101/hillary-clinton-ad-donald-trump-women/
(3)http://fortune.com/2016/11/04/james-comey-election-polls-trump/
I read a post that said Donald Trump will win, and I disagree but Hillary’s win might not be by a huge gap. Throughout the last few weeks/day before the election Donald Trump has began to close out the gap between himself and Hillary. Donald Trump is now only 2 points behind Clinton and his support shows it is going up, but probably not up enough for him to win (1). The person also said Trump would win by capitalizing on the email scandals and he did do that and it definitely did help him but I do not think it will win him the election. Also, if neither candidates win 270 votes it is possible we could be having a third party candidate as our next president. Most likely it would be Gary Johnson because he is polling at 8% (2). So I disagree that Donald Trump will win and I am betting on a win from Hillary Clinton, but who knows maybe it will be a third party candidate.
http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/2016/election/poll-tracker/
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/us/politics/third-party-gary-johnson-jill-stein.html
I chose Hayley Dickinson's post to respond to. I agree with her prediction that Clinton will win the presidency, but given the events of the past week, I think it will be by a much narrower margin than Hayley predicted. With the FBI reopening its case against Clinton that centers around her email scandal, she had a major drop in the polls (1). This event is just what was needed to convince voters that Clinton isn't a good choice and is untrustworthy. Clinton had a high 70's/low 80's percent chance of winning before the FBI reopened her case (2). Currently, she has a 65 percent chance (2). This significant drop is attributed to the tightening of races in swing states, such as Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida. Clinton is losing her lead in those states, but still maintains the lead overall. I think it is unlikely that Clinton will win any traditionally Republican states, such as Arizona or Texas, given her current state in the polls. I agree that Hayley in her statement that Clinton is handling herself with poise and that her policy positions are much friendlier to minority voters than Trumps. Because of this, it's likely Clinton will maintain her lead and win the election, despite the FBI investigation and other bumps in the road.
(1) http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/nov/1/hillary-clinton-email-scandal-renewed-fbi-probe-pu/
(2) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus
Well this post is coming late and with shame. I had previously said that Trump would win and I deeply regret my prediction, I did not, whatsoever think that I would actually be correct. This post is kind of moot point now because its already over but I'll point out Trumps silent majority and how all of the polls were so far off. Even 538 was wrong and I'm astonished (1). I can't even comprehend how Trump pulled it off but the fact is that Trumps overwhelming support with non college educated white males was what helped him achieve his victory (2). I don't even know what to say anymore, I'm sorry America.
1. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
2. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-pollster-theres-a-big-hidden-trump-vote/article/2598805
There were a few students that wrote that Trump would win, and as this is late, we all know that that is exactly what happened. Unfortunately the pollsters had it all wrong and Clinton did not win by a large margin, in fact she lost. A term that many are using to describe Trumps shocking win is the "silent majority". This explains that the majority of the country did support Trump but kept their support quiet or to themselves (1). It is interesting that Trump was even able to win the Latino vote in some states, even after the horrible things he had said about that group throughout the campaign. Another interesting thing I read is that voters in rural areas have shifted throughout the years to voting more republican, thus helping Trump claim his victory (2). Trumps victory took many of us by surprise, and for the most part white and rural Americans made it all happened.
(1) http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/11/09/loud-cheer-for-silent-majority-that-lifted-trump-to-victory.html
(2) http://www.npr.org/2016/11/14/501737150/rural-voters-played-a-big-part-in-helping-trump-defeat-clinton
Many people argued that Clinton is going to sweep this election whether by a landslide or by barely getting to 270 electoral votes and I agree. She currently holds too much momentum for he to not do so, and Florida has been leaning in her favor in the eyes of FiveThirtyeight (1) which I trust in religiously. I also believe in the HuffPost model, and they currently have Clinton with a 92.8% chance of winning (2). This is due to the fact that they gave her almost every swing state, bringing her to 323 electoral votes, way more than necessary to win this election. What I know for certain however, is that Tuesday night is going to be an interesting one for us all.
Sources:
1) fivethirtyeight.com
2)http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_us_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94
In response to the claim that Trump will win due to the investigation of Hillary Clinton, I disagree. Though it may increase distrust, it is unlikely to really sway the results. In addition, Clinton has once again not been charged by the FBI, with them having found nothing worthy of prosecution yet again (1). Even if trust in Clinton has dropped, it is not reflected in the polls, as her 6 point lead remained from the week before the reopened investigation to the week after (2). In conclusion, I don't think that the investigation will swing the election in Trump's favor and I believe Clinton can still win.
1:https://www.rt.com/usa/365568-fbi-charges-clinton-emails/
2:http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/poll-clinton-maintains-national-lead-over-trump-despite-fbi-letter-n675771
There are many people saying that Hillary will most likely win because she is the better candidate with her policies. I agree with this statement. She is more qualified in all ways and she is smarter. Trump's policies are not reasonable and he is not smart.
Almost every single person in this blog believes that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency, and for good reason. Democrats have been becoming more and more popular with the public and the millennials are becoming more prominent in politics (i.e. able to vote). She also has plenty of states at her advantage to secure her votes. If the states go the same way that history has shown, she is guaranteed commander in chief.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-pollster-theres-a-big-hidden-trump-vote/article/2598805
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