Response to Post #1
Please post your response to post 1 here. Please be specific in your praise or criticism of your classmate's post. Please state who you are responding to.
Due by Friday, September 17th
posted by M. Aby @ 7:31 AM
AP US Government & Politics
This blog is for students in Ms. Aby-Keirstead's AP US Government class in Bloomington, MN. It is for students to post their thoughts on current events and governmental affairs. Students should be respectful & think of this forum as an extension of their classroom. The instructor has the same expectations for classroom discussion & blog posts. These posts will be graded for both their academic merit & for their appropriateness.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Due by Friday, September 17th
AP US Government & Politics
This blog is for students in Ms. Aby-Keirstead's AP US Government class in Bloomington, MN. It is for students to post their thoughts on current events and governmental affairs. Students should be respectful & think of this forum as an extension of their classroom. The instructor has the same expectations for classroom discussion & blog posts. These posts will be graded for both their academic merit & for their appropriateness.
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Previous Posts
- 2010 Midterm Elections
- Welcome to our blog!
- Obama'a Education Policy
- Response to post 4
- Post 4: Due 3/8
- Response to post 3
- Response to post 3 - extended timeline
- Issue before Congress
- Response Post
- Post 2: State of the Union
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29 Comments:
Reply to Savannah
Her original post:
With midterm elections slowly coming the TV’s are buzzing with commercials that aim to convince you that their candidate is the very best for this state/country/city/etc. So why are political groups, and parties so set on trying to win you over by November 2nd 2010?
This is because there are 37 spots open in the Senate, 435 spots in the House, and 37 spots open for Governor. And with all these open spots it gives the Republican Party a chance to take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate (1).
I predict that the Republican Party will come out on top after the November Congressional Elections because Republicans are seriously trying harder to overthrow the Democrats for seats in the House, the Senate, and White House; they are at their highest casting primary ballots rates since 1970. Also there is a “distinct lack of enthusiasm among the Democratic rank and file” as Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of American Electorate, states from a recent study conducted by the Center (2). Not only that, but Democrats are having a hard time with making a clear set of policy goals. Health car, energy, jobs and educations seem to be the big ones, but to the American public it seems as if they have done really nothing to change any of those issues (3). I feel as though the Democratic Party is being crippled by their ambiguous set of policies.
The advice I give to the Democratic Party to succeed in the November Elections is to, first, encourage members of their party to vote, and to try to make a clear set of policies they are willing to tackle if they were elected into office.
But I do think that this will be a bigger win for the Republicans since the enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is disappearing because of the lack of change they promised.
My Response:
I agree with the above statements regarding the Congressional elections. I feel like there is so much proof leaning to success for the Republicans this November and that the Democrats will most definitely struggle. Savannah included a statement that pointed out this year’s primary being extremely successful for the Republicans, being the highest amount of votes for them in a primary since 1970. This is clear evidence, that unless the Democrats step up their game, the Republicans are sure for victory.
I’m not sure that the Democrats are having any trouble making policy goals though. I think what the real problem is, they are becoming less sure of themselves because they realize that many people are becoming wary of Obama’s whole “change” plan, and that could have an affect the Congressional elections. Also, they realize that the Republicans do have the opportunity to strike back this year. Losing one or both houses of Congress is very frightening for them, and instead of picking up their game, they are becoming considerably nervous about the whole issue.
I very much agree that the Democrats need to get out into the public and encourage members to vote. The only way they will be able to come through in the November elections is confidence, and the candidates need that not only in themselves, but in their voters.
You don't need to repost their whole post. Just quote the parts that relate to what you're writing about. Thanks.
I disagree with Amanda when she predicted that the Democrats will have an awful showing in November and that the Republicans will gain a sizable majority.
The reason I disagree is because while the Democrats are much less popular today than they were in 2008, they do have one advantage coming into the elections, and that is the fact that the Tea Party will be likely stealing votes from the Republicans, or at the very least, as we've seen with Sarah Palin-endorsed Christine O'Donnell winning her primary in New Hampshire, the Tea Party may be taking over the Republican party, which would certainly drive centrists and moderate Republicans toward the Democrats (1).
Even though it is more popular right now to be conservative, having the Tea Party and GOP compete for supremacy on the right wing is a great thing for the Democrats, because more moderate members of the Republican party will not want to vote Tea Party. This situation happened in the Presidential election of 1912, when Theodore Roosevelt created a third party, the Progressive Party, which stole votes from the Republicans and allowed the Democrat candidate Woodrow Wilson to capture the presidency. Congress may have a more conservative landscape after the November elections, but at the very least the presence of the Tea Party should serve as a sort of damage control for the Democrats, keeping their lost seats at a minimum.
I agree with Katie when she says that the Republicans need to do a better job of appealing to centrists and moderate voters if they want to maximize their votes this fall. Even though the Republicans have a large base of voters, it will be hard for them to gain as many House seats as they could if they weren't appealing to such an extremely conservative group like the Tea Party.
I also strongly agree with Anthony "AnthoNOVA" when he says that one of the best things the Democrats could do is to attempt less compromise and attack the Republicans for the hypocrisy surrounding their platform. That hypocrisy mainly manifests itself as the Republicans trying to run on a platform of financial responsibility. While their opposition to Obama's spending thus far is understandable, I would hardly consider the same party that turned Bill Clinton's $46 billion surplus from fiscal year 2000 (2) into a $1.3 trillion dollar deficit by the time President Obama took office (3). I also agree with Anthony that if the Republicans do become the majority this year, they will have to actually come up with a plan to balance the budget and to fix the rest of our problems instead of just reading them off a teleprompter.
Sources:
1) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704652104575493900247018126.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLETopStories
2) http://www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/during_the_clinton_administration_was_the_federal.html
3) http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2010/jan/29/barack-obama/obama-inherited-deficits-bush-administration/
In response to Kristin
Kristin I agree with you that it does appear with Presidents declining popularity and with the current poll projections that as you said“the Republicans will take a slight majority in the House after the midterm elections” This will be the first time since the President has taken office that he will face ,the House with out his party majority. It will be interesting to see if they can work together to find a solution to the current problems or just be stuck in gridlock. However I believe that the Democrats will keep the majority in the Senate.
However I don’t think the republicans have to have a “offensive” against the Democrats, the Republicans just need to maintain a different view point of political action, which isn’t difficult for them to do. Also the Democrats, not only need to, “show the voters that they are willing to take action instead of spending all their time simply holding out against the Republicans and their policies.” But need to show the voters that they are willing to accept their mistakes and try and find a new solution and not just put make up some band-aide solution that doesn’t fix the underlying problems.
To Bridget (bmac):
Bridget, although I agree with 75% of what you wrong, I disagreed with your note on independent voters.
"This is becasue many of the independent voters are tending to swing toward the Republican side, and there is a strong partisan gap favoring the Republicans."
It is a proven fact that many Democratic and Independent voters differ from Republicans in not being so loyal and vocal to particular candidates early on in campaigns. Granted, many independent party members (including many other groups in our county) are not pleased with Obama and his administration at the moment, so there is always the chance they will head over to the GOP when November comes closer.
Another statement I disagreed with was:
"For the Democrats and Republicans to be successful this November they should put a lot of focus on the job market, and tax issues"
At this point in the race, I think both parties' best bet is to slander the other group, and for Democrats to continue to urge citizens to vote! November is not far off, and the Republicans are at the advantage with the positive image they are gaining right now as it appears the Democrats are struggling to lead our country. With this, I believe the Democrats way to success is not to sell their platform, but to advertise to the max all the positives of Democrats vs. the "horrible negatives" of the Republicans.
Lexi:
I very much agree with you that the Republicans will take back some seats in this year’s midterm elections. However, I think that they may not gain as much ground as you think, simply because the war in Iraq has been winding down lately. As Iraq stabilizes and gets back on its feet, we have even more troops stationed in Afghanistan, fighting a war that probably won’t wind down anytime in the near future. I think that the focus will simply shift from Iraq to Afghanistan, going back to the arguments we’ve been hearing since 2002. Another limitation that I think has been put on the Republican party this year is the popularity of the more extremist Tea Party movement. They seem to be taking more votes away from the Republicans, which could turn out to be a very good thing. The moderates and moderate Republicans don’t want to vote for the Tea Partiers because they are so extreme in their views. This could lead to them voting for a Democratic candidate. The Republicans will probably gain around 20 seats back, as you said, but I highly doubt they will end up being the majority.
In response to Britta:
I completely agree with what Britta had to say in her blog post. I do believe that the republicans do have the upper hand in this election because, as Britta states, "When Americans were asked what they viewed as the most important issues on the eve of the midterm elections, forty-two percent said the economy, followed by health care at seventeen percent, the deficit at thirteen percent, and education at nine percent." And through my research I found that Republicans had more to say on issues and more of an idea of what they were going to do, rather then the democrats who hardly highlighted any of the issues on their websites (which is a key place for politicians to express their views).
I also like how Britta added in the fact that Obama's approval ratings were going down from sixty percent range to thirty-eight/forty percent range in the past few months. This is caused by how his promise of "change" really hasn't been happening. I believe that this is another factor that will cause a negative effect for the democrats in the elections.
Response to Anthony (AnthoNOVA):
I agree with Anthony on a great majority of the statements that he made in his post but there is one in particular I’d like to focus on: “Democrats are heading for trouble in the midterm elections... In my opinion, compromise on policy has not helped the Democrats and will not in the future. As during the presidential election, Obama and the Democrats need to become more aggressive in their criticisms of Republicans.” It cannot be stated enough how true this is; Democrats, in general, have a notorious position as the less confident of the two parties, examples pointing to such being both prevalent and glaring. One such example is the expiring “Bush Tax Cuts,” which are universal tax cuts that president Bush put into effect during his presidency. They are set to expire later this year and are an issue that is the subject of much current deliberation in Congress. Republicans there want the tax cuts extended to both the rich and the middle class and under, while the Democrats want them extended only for the middle class and under (the cutoff, specifically, is set at $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for families, in yearly income). A poll was recently taken which states that 44% of Americans support letting the cuts expire for the high income bracket but not the middle/lower bracket (1). This seems like it would make the Democrats pushing for such a motion relatively safe (1), but the options of allowing the wealthy cuts to be put to a vote either separately or, even, just letting them go through, have not been quashed, which is a textbook example of what Anthony said.
All that said, I must give credit where credit is due; Obama called the Republicans out on stalling the motion because the Democrats hadn’t been planning to support the cuts for the wealthy. In a public statement, he said the Republican party is “holding the middle class hostage” (2), which is an excellent example of what Democrats should do in the face of Republican opposition; not only is it helpful to their case, but it puts the reality of what the Republicans were doing by threatening to stall the tax cuts.
Overall, while I agree with Anthony on his major points, what I think of the above quoted section of his post goes beyond agreement.
1 Americans OK Allowing Tax Cuts for Wealthy to Expire: http://www.gallup.com/poll/142940/americans-allowing-tax-cuts-wealthy-expire.aspx
2. Obama: GOP holding middle class tax cuts “hostage”: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39193114/ns/politics-capitol_hill/
In Response to: Brian G.
You definitely brought up some valid arguments that I agree with you on, but there were a few things that I disagreed with. You wrote that you believed the Republican party would gain control of the House of Representatives because the Democrats have only a small majority currently and because some people are not satisfied with certain Democrats, like President Obama and Nancy Pelosi. I definitely agree with your statement here, as it appears that Republican candidates are fairing well according to polls and because the President’s party generally loses seats in the midterm elections. I don’t think that the Republicans will gain control of the Senate though, as they have a large majority and only some of the seats are open for election, however I do think that the Democrats will only have a small majority in the Senate once the elections are over.
You also said this regarding Republican strategy for this election: “My advice to the Republican Party to win this midterm election is that they need to act like themselves and try not to extend their boundaries. When the Republican Party extends their boundaries they often get themselves into trouble because they tend to lie, and nobody in America enjoys liars.” While I do think it is important for the Republicans to be themselves and not to lie, I do not think that those are the biggest things they need to work on. I think it would be most beneficial for the Republicans if they criticize the Obama administration and other Democrat leaders. Also, and I’m not saying they should lie, but they should try to downplay some of the divisions in their party, like the Tea Party.
In response to Jesse Panger
I disagree with Jesse when he says that “If Republicans are able to take over the senate, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House’s job could turn over to the other side causing a friends close, enemies closer dynamic between the President and Speaker.”
The reason that I disagree with Jesse on this certain part is that because I believe that if Nancy loses her role, the President and the new speaker won’t be enemies. Just because the two will be on different sides of the political spectrum doesn’t mean that they will despise each other. I believe that many people in this country think that if people are in opposite parties they hate each other. Teddy Kennedy had many friends that were Republicans. (1) They may disagree on a few issues, but I feel that in the end they will make a compromise. Pelosi and Obama were never that good of friends on policy making either. (2)
I do agree with your ideas on how the republicans and democrats will get their votes. I think that all of your information in that area is true. Jesse, you did a great job, I just didn’t agree with your first part.
Sources:
1) http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2009/08/68497804/1
2) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/20/pelosi-draws-her-lines-wi_n_159392.html
Reply to Emma:
"I think that Democrats will maintain some power, as they are trying to make big steps to do so, such as passing health care, promoting the positive aspects of the current administration, counteracting controversial bills, and stepping up their political rhetoric. I believe these efforts will pay off." I agree with Emma's statement about the Democrats standing their ground. Several people are counting on the Republicans to take a big sweep, which is a possibility, but there are still issues that are keeping Democrats from giving up the fight. I agree that trying to pass heath care is on the main agenda for the Democrats. Since Obama hasn't addressed the issue as much as the Democrats thought he was going to do, they will vote to give Congress more power to back them up. On the other hand, in the blog I wrote, I also argued that Obama not following through on his actions could be discouraging to the citizens. The candidates will lose a few votes to those people.
I agree with Emma when she says, "These efforts will pay off." I think that the Democrats will surprise people and do better in the election then they are predicting to do.
In response to Eric:
I agree strongly with most things Eric says. The Republicans will likely gain the majority in the House, since they are practically there already. I also feel that they will probably earn a slight advantage in the Senate, which Eric never actually mentions. I feel that calling the Tea Party the Democrats’ greatest political nemesis is not entirely accurate, however. ("For the Democrats, the biggest tidbit of advice has come straight from their biggest political nemesis: earlier this summer, the Delaware Tea Party...") While the Tea Party is very far from the Democrats on the political spectrum, they are far enough that they are not actually taking any votes directly from the Democrats. If anything, they could possibly be helping because they could be taking votes from the GOP.
Other than that, I agree with basically everything Eric said.
Reply to Eric
There is over six weeks until the 2010 midterm elections, in these six weeks the political landscape can change considerably. This is why Democrats and Republicans should be cautious when proclaiming their expectations for Election Day. The Gallup poll used in your blog had the Republicans up ten percent in a generic party matchup this week the two parties are tied in the same pole (1). Using current poles to predict an election such a long time away creates a false sense of victory.
I agree with you when you say that Democrats need to legislate with the will of the people more in mind this can be evidenced by the backlash Democrats have felt from all areas of the political spectrum on such issues as the bailouts, and healthcare reform. All these policies involve spending more money and not having a way to pay for it. I think Democrats should show some fiscal restraint in the weeks leading up to the election to prove to voters that they following the will of the people. Democrats can go out on the campaign trail and say they are the true party of no, if they follow this advice. They can remind voters that the Republicans failed in this respect last time they had a majority. Democrats and Republicans need to stop spending irresponsibly, but until that happens both parties are taking America to financial ruin one party is heading there more quickly.
I agree with Savannah. Savannah said she feels that the Democratic Party is being crippled by their ambiguous set of policies. I agree completely with this. The American public wants change, and for the Democratic Party to be successful this November they need to make their plans clear to the public. The American people are worried about the economy. Republicans are using this to their advantage by being vocal about the fact that the Democratic Party’s plans to fix the economy haven‘t worked yet. The Republican party will do well in the November elections also because of the amount of Republican voters, and the lack of enthusiasm from Democrats. It seems that it will be a tough election for the Democratic Party.
As I was skimming through some of the blogs, I found a difference in ideas people in the class have on the party advice question. Rachel had a good point in her response that she wrote to Bridget. She said, "I think both parties' best bet is to slander the other group." In my opinion, it's a valid statement. The Democrats will get farther if they slander the Republicans and the Republicans will get farther if they talk against the Democrats. In society today, people tend to come together more when negative comments are being tossed around. On the other hand, on Britta's blog she wrote,"I would tell the Republicans to... and keep up their struggle against the Democrats without being mean about it." I like Britta's point here as well. I think that slander could also hurt the candidates. Some people like the controversy between parties, and others get uncomfortable when politics get sticky. I know some people that won't share their views, fearing that they will be judged by the people in the opposite party. Slander could potentially take a few votes away from each side as well. I liked both Rachel's and Britta's ideas about getting the word out. They both had different views and I can see where both of them are coming from.
In response to Abby....
I thought that you made a really good point when discussing the chances for the Republicans to take over the Senate. Since 37 seats are up for grabs, of which 19 are currently democrat held, with 12 being incumbents running for reelection, I think it will be very difficult for the Republicans to take over the Senate. However I disagree that the Republicans have a strong chance at overthrowing the Democrats in the House. Currently the Democrats hold a 235 to 198 advantage in the House, and while this is surmountable, 37 seats is definitely a climb. Especially since the average gain in the house is only 22 seats during the midterm election (1). I'm not saying that it's not going to happen, but I don't think it is as solidified as everyone seems to think.
I also agree with your point that the Republicans should probably amp up their criticism of the Obama administration before November. As of September 15th the President Obama had a 45% approval rating (2) Many of his critics disagree with the way that President Obama has handled the economic situation so I would say that this is one of the issues that Republicans need to exploit along with the health care issue, which you mentioned.
You did an excellent job explaining what the Democrats need to do in order to succeed in November. Exploiting the "Tea Party", raising the number of Democrats who come out and vote, and aiming at Independent voters are all great ways that the Democrats can improve their chances. However, I do disagree on the statement that said "The Obama Administration needs to focus on the midterm elections because right now it is mostly working toward the 2012 Presidential elections". I feel that this is incorrect because President Obama knows what is at stake, and he understands the power of holding a majority in both the House and Senate.
Overall, I thought you had some great ideas and thought of some interesting aspects of the election. Excellent job!
(1)http://politics.usnews.com/news/articles/2010/09/03/what-does-the-generic-republican-v-democrat-ballot-say-about-election-2010.html
(2)http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20016597-503544.html
In Response to Val
Included in Val’s arguments for the upcoming elections being more important than in recent history was the fact that generally more people are expected to show up to vote and that Obama has addressed hot topic issues in which the public are conflicted. Although true, that doesn’t quite explain this year’s truly exceptionally significant midterms. The expected voter turnout is projected to be predominantly republican and, in fact, the numbers of democratic voters are in the decline. If the republicans are able to gain a majority then a gridlock between president and congress may occur. If this happens then the traditionally progressive Obama will see formidable opposition in his remaining time in office.
Again, the factuality of Val’s comments are steady, they seem to fit like a jig into the political campaign of every year. Candidates need to alter their scheme, democrats and republicans alike, if they want congressional majority. Blogging, television, and twitter are all advertising agents but it’s the message that comes across that affects people the most. Republicans need to attack those hot-button issues that Val addressed earlier and point out the inevitable flaws in a public and popular forum. Liberals will in turn be forced to rebut, showing the country the profound progress when democrats control the majority of legislation. Overall, Val’s article pointed out the outline of a plan-of-attack but specific techniques and strategies need to be implementing using the outline to be effective.
I both agree and disagree with Amanda's statement, "unless Obama does something about these two problems [in reference to the public's reactions to President Obama's economic policy] ridiculously quickly, the Democrats don’t have much of a chance of coming out of this election on top." Though that Congress does have more responsibility when it comes to the economy, President Obama needs to pull together some support and keep lobbying for change. The President must prove to the public what he is trying to get done, if only Congress could put aside their differences, suck it up, and start thinking about the people seriously enough to GET SOMETHING DONE.
In response to Arvy [ARAvinthan]: {and Monica}
I do agree with your general opinion that it will be harder for the democrat’s to maintain a majority. However, you make the democrat’s fighting chance sound quite grim. Will Republicans gain majority in both the House and Senate or just one? I agree with Monica’s statement that a majority is to be expected in one chamber of congress. That area I believe to be the House of Representatives. Also, how quite is Obama not getting things done? For me, I do agree partially with that statement, as do most Americans, that Obama isn’t getting much done. However, I do not only believe that the November 2nd elections depends mostly on the President’s actions. As I go back to Monica’s statement, I notice how nicely her statement and Arvy’s can complement each others. Also, I can’t help but notice Arvy’s statement about how the election lies in the hands of the American citizens. For me, it lies in correct execution of plans by Republicans and Democrats and the right timing. Often, I question whether elections really are in the hands of the people. With elections quickly approaching, I hope, Arvy, that you are right in saying that the election lies in the hands of the people. I also very much hope I am wrong in thinking this election to be decided by both the people and careful executed plans by their proper parties!
Reply to chaser:
I disagree with Chase's statement that the Republicans will be able to take both houses of Congress. I do think the Republicans will be able to take control of the House of Reps. due to the President's response to everything but it would be very difficult to take the Senate with so little Democrats up for reelection. I wouldn't be utterly shocked if it did happen but i just don't think that it's a feasible goal.
In response to ARAvinthan, I mostly agree with what is said. However, at this point it would appear that the senate will remain in the hands of the democrats [1]. It is still uncertain and will be close though. It is almost certain that the Republicans will come out on top with governors and with the house. I agree 100 percent that Obama’s lack of action is a definite factor counting against the democrats [2]. Americans want to see a change and the Democrats have had their shot, so now it is the Republicans turn. Unfortunately, I don’t see much of a reputation change for the democrats in the near future. If that was to happen it would defiantly change the whole election.
[1] http://www.cookpolitical.com/
[2] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/madness/
In response to Caitlin
Caitlin, I agree with your statement that “many of these Democratic policies, however, have been controversial, and have been opposed by large number of Americans. Recent poll results show that Republicans are likely to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and although less likely, could even win a majority in the U.S. Senate. If the Republicans gain a majority in the House or Senate, President Obama certainly will have more difficulty in pursuing his legislative goals.” However, instead of worrying about a gridlock preventing policies from being created in 2012, I think it is more important to look at what will happen soon after the elections are over. If the Republicans manage to get a slim majority in even just one of the chambers of Congress, it will help maintain the democratic system where the people’s voices are heard. If the House of Representatives were to have a Republican majority, I think that it be a positive thing for the Democratic and Republican voters to believe that their voices are being heard, instead of simply allowing the Democrats to use their majority to keep the Republicans quiet. Perhaps, with the growing disapproval of the Democratic Party, it will be good to let the Republicans have a louder voice in Congress. The Republicans have been forced to sit back for the last couple years and now they may have a chance to take action and try to fix the problems that they have been complaining about. Overall, I think that a more balanced proportion in Congress will better represent the American people’s opinions, and allow Washington to make policies that reflect the American public.
-http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/10/g-o-p-has-2-in-3-chance-of-taking-house-model-forecasts/#more-805
Response to Val:
I agree with your statement “President Obama has… opinion at the polls.” I believe that the changes that have taken place since the Obama administration took control will have an important effect on the midterm elections. Because President Obama’s ratings have been decreasing recently, it is likely that the Republicans will have more support for their views(1). I mostly agree with your statement “I predict that the Republicans will win the majority of the votes especially for the house.” However, while I agree that the Republicans will win the majority in the house, I think that the Democrats will retain control in the Senate. This is because Democrats only need to win 11 of the 37 seats to keep the majority(1). I think you are correct when you say, “If Republicans win… disagree with what’s going on.” Having opposing parties in control of congress and the executive branch is sure to have an effect on policies and may cause a gridlock(2).
Technology is a fairly inexpensive and effective way of campaigning, and it could be an important way for both parties to raise support. I also really liked your response comment regarding the different ways that the parties can try to get support. I agree with how slandering the opposing party is generally effective, but it could also hurt them.
You had a great post with a lot of good information!
1. Cook: http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/82352.
2. CNN: http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/election.2010/the.ba
Response to Emma Gerch:
I agree with Emma's prediction about how Republicans are much more likely to win the House of Representatives rather than the Senate in Congress. Re-examining my own post, I didn't look enough into the numbers of the whole situation. According to the Cook Political Report, there are about 50 seats in the House of Representatives that could go either to either Democrats or Republicans. Republicans need 38 seats to secure the majority. In addition, there are even more seats potentially available for Republicans that are only slightly leaning Democrat.
One must also consider the common perception of each party by the general voting public. Negative job outlook, the economic decline, and our continuing presence in the Middle East are all key issues that mass media has presented as policy driven by the Democratic party. Essentially, I feel like whoever the President is at the time determines how their party is perceived in the public eye. Today, President Obama and Congress are generally viewed as unsuccessful and having not gotten anything done, which simply hurts the Democratic party's chances at preserving their majority in the House.
The combination of the potential Republican surge and the public's general outlook on today's issues are both key reasons why their will likely be a new majority in the House after the Midterms.
]www.cookpolitical.com]
Reply to Chase (Chaser)
I do agree the fact that democrats haven't been able to keep the promise of raising the economy, job market and cutting on government spending. Democrats are currently falling behind as the economy is going down. Republicans have a major advantage in this election because democrats have control over congress and haven't been able to make any positive process to growth in economy. Republicans getting control will make them vote on bills that could have major effect in current situation of this country. Obama Administration's ineffective agenda which is hurting the economy could be a major factor that people might support the republicans so they can get in control.
Reply to Katie Carr
Hi Katie! I thought you made many valid arguments in your post. I agree with you that the Republicans seem to be gaining momentum in the election. I also found the comment of how the President's party has lost an average of 22 seats in almost every midterm election since 1948 very interesting. This definitely makes sense this year, since many people have become less supportive of Obama's policies, thus making the Democratic party less appealing.
I agree that the Republicans will gain seats in both the house and the senate, but I believe that the Republicans will gain the majority in the House. It is predicted that Republicans will gain at least 40 seats in the House, and only 39 seats are needed to tip the scale into the Republican's favor(cookspolitical.com).
Your comment about the Tea Party being a possible problem for the Republican party is a very good point. I agree that not many Americans will have as extreme views.
Response to Erica Sasseville:
"Due to the traffic jam that has been Congress these past two years, and the inability to get anything done of the Obama administration, I predict a Republican gain."
I agree that the Republican party will likely experience a rebound this year due to dissatisfaction with Obama's administration. I think it's unfortunate that so many people expected his presidency to some sort of magical journey into the land of happiness and change.
On that note, I find Erica's advice to the parties a little too optimistic and unrealistic. I don't think this election will really be about making inspiring changes and "turning the country around for the better." I think it's simply about politics and pleasing the maximum number of people. Finding that delicate balance are what the democrats need to do, while avoiding political gridlock. (Notice how I seamlessly slipped in that term from our book)
In response to Caitlin F:
“These large Democratic majorities in Congress, when combined with Barack Obama’s election as President, have permitted the Democrats to aggressively pursue their policy agenda over the last two years, including enacting health-care legislation and adopting economic policies involving historic spending levels.
Many of these Democratic policies, however, have been controversial, and have been opposed by large number of Americans.”
Caitlin’s primary argument, reproduced above, is that Democrats will be voted out based on their unpopular and aggressive liberal actions in the past two years. However, despite the lack of progress in Congress, voters do not seem particularly anti-Democrat, rather are upset by the lack of reform. In the midst of last summer’s healthcare debate, voters, while split in support and opposition to healthcare, supported Obama’s handling. According to Time Magazine, “Asked who they trust to develop new health-care legislation, 47% of respondents said Obama, compared with 32% who said Republicans in Congress.” Polls after the bill’s passage also show that Americans support the healthcare bill, although by a slim margin.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1913426,00.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/126929/slim-margin-americans-support-healthcare-bill-passage.aspx
Even though Democrats are currently in power in Congress, polls show voters opposed to the job Republicans have been doing as well. In the most recent Gallup poll, 33% approve of Democrats in Congress while 32% approve of Republicans in Congress. http://www.gallup.com/poll/142898/Job-Approval-Ratings-Low-Parties-Congress.aspx
In my opinion, the seats that Democrats lose will be a reflection of voter dissatisfaction with both parties’ failure to produce change rather than an all-out rejection of liberal policy.
In response to the one source cited in the post, a quick skim raises questions of its current relevance and neutrality. Although no specific part of the blog post referenced this article, it seems to be the basis for Caitlin’s claim that “…these Democratic policies…have been opposed by large number of Americans.” However, the article has not been updated since December of last year. And, although it does cite evidence of American dissatisfaction with Democratic performance, it seems mainly skewed to support the radical conservative Tea Party movement. Its author even admits to being an original Tea Party organizer.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/BC-Post-Tea-Party-popularity-should-lead-to-dominance-of-the-Republican-Party-79541072.html
Continued from above
Caitlin provides good advice to Republicans campaigning this election when she states
“Because they [Republicans] are out of power, and the economy is so bad, they mostly just have to avoid creating controversies or saying things that scare voters. Basically, Republicans can just say that what the Democrats have been doing is not working, and that the Republicans will pursue different policies, ones that will spend less money and will improve the economy.”
Unfortunately, the latest pre-election developments suggest that this is not the direction the Republican Party is going. As primaries conclude for the Republican Party, unviable candidates such as Tea Party favorite Christine O’Donnell appear to be coming out on top. “We were looking at eight to nine seats in the Senate," Republican strategist Karl Rove recently said on Fox News. “Now we're looking at seven to eight, in my opinion. This is not a race we're going to be able to win." Clearly, despite dissatisfaction with both parties in Congress, a reversal of progress made in the past two years, as advocated by “Tea Party” supporters, is not going to win the midterm election for conservatives.
Original Interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Jlh1EsgS7Q
CBS Summary: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20016479-503544.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+CBSNewsTravelGuru+(Travel+Guru:+CBSNews.com)
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