Post 4: Mid Term Elections
November 2010's midterm elections are expected to be a referendum on whether the American people support President Obama's and Congress' performance.
-What are the difficulties the Democrats will have in the midterm elections?
-What advice do you have for the Democrats to protect their majority in Congress?
-What advice do you have for the Republicans to gain seats in Congress in this upcoming election?
-What predictions do you have?
Background on the topic:
Wave of retirements speaks to uncertainty about 2010 elections
GOP retirements in House may affect party's gains in November
Post due by class on Monday, 1/11
posted by M. Aby @ 11:34 AM
48 Comments:
The 2010 midterm elections are fast approaching with their date in November. The question on many people's minds is what will happen to the Democratic majority in Congress? All the hype that was a result of Obama's election in 2008 has somewhat dwindled due to his inability to get a health care reform bill passed and the continuation of economic problems in America (1). Midterm elections have historically been sort of a review of how the party in power and the president are doing. If people see the party in power as doing what they promised and overall doing a good job, then they typically respond to this by voting with that party. However, voters could also choose to protest the party in power if they feel they aren't doing a good job and vote for the other party which could affect the status quo in Congress. However, this feeling among voters might change due to the amount of time between now and the midterm elections. I think one difficulty Democrats have concerning the midterm elections is the number of retiring incumbents. So far there have been ten announcing they will not run again (2). My feeling as to why they are retiring in such large numbers has to do with the fact that they aren't getting key legislation passed that they promised to. Obama made health care his domestic legislative priority and I feel like his failure to get some bill passed on this will be devastating to his party and the Democratic seats in Congress (3). Representative Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland says "It would indicate an inability to govern and get things done on a very important issue."(3). Not only is a health care bill key to Democrats but they must do something about the economy and the unemployment rate in order to have success in the midterm elections (3). With all these Democrats leaving, some Democrats have become less willing to go along with their party on difficult issues (4). Advice that I have for Democrats to keep their majority would be to work on fixing the economy. Political scientists have said that while health care might be a downfall to Democrats, it wont have the same positive effect should it get passed but the economy is what can have the most positive effect. If things get better, Democrats could start to have an advantage again in the upcoming elections (3). So in saying this, I think Obama and Democrats should work on measures to improve the economy if they want a chance at preserving their majority in Congress. For Republicans, would recommend that they push Democrats that may be wavering and tell them what could be coming their way if they run for reelection (2). I also think Republicans should keep reminding people how Democrats have failed on many of their promises and remind people that they have failed to get a health care bill passed and improve the economy. They should also remind people that after Obama's election, it can be argued that the Democrats were the most powerful with a president and a majority in Congress. They also had a lot of hype on their side (3). These advantages still held the democrats from delivering on many of their promises so what's to say that if they lose power they will be able to get things done when they failed even when they had a lot of power. My predictions are that Republicans will retake power in Congress with the midterm elections because even if a health care bill gets passed, it is unlikely to give major support to Democrats and even if the Obama administration gets economy-improving legislation passed, it might be a while before people start seeing a change which might not come in time for the November elections.
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
3. http://prescriptions.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/09/overhaul-success-or-not-democrats-brace-for-losses/?scp=2&sq=midterm%20elections&st=cse
4. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/06/for-obama-a-dispiriting-reality/?scp=6&sq=midterm%20elections&st=cse
As the 2010 midterm elections rapidly approach, there are many difficulties for both the Democrats and the Republicans. As the success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign begins to wear thin on many Americans, challenges have become more common to the Democratic majority. However, the Republicans can not insure an easy victory either.
The 2010 midterm elections are coming along quickly, and with that comes a sense of foreboding within the Democratic majority in Congress. As many senior members of Congress, including Senator Christopher Dodd resign their positions in the Senate and House, there is speculation that as many as 20 to 25 seats will be lost for the Democrats (1). This results in an even larger number of seats that can be taken by the Republicans. Many Democrats, although feeling not entirely “gloomy” are very concerned about losing the 60 vote filibuster majority that they held dearly before (1). The control of Congress will most likely be attacked by Republicans, as many Americans are frustrated with Congress’s complicated and relatively unpopular healthcare proposal bill. However, there is hope, as some Democrats say that things could look upwards. David Axelrod, a White House Senior Advisor spoke on the matter. “Do we have challenges? Of course. That comes with the terrain and the economic situation we find ourselves in and the history of midterm elections,” (1). I think that the only way the situation for the Democrats will look brighter is if people realize that President Obama is only human, and also that he inherited quite a mess from the previous administration. He cannot solve every problem in the world in only one year, and neither can Congress.
To protect their majority in Congress, I think that the Democrats should do something that I usually do not support. I think they should look beyond policy and more at public image. In our culture, that is the only thing that’s going to save them now. Unless the healthcare proposals that have been passed turn out to be more popular than originally, they will have a tough time. Therefore, by working hard to improve public image on other issues and keeping their heads up, that will do more for their elections than simply attacking the Republicans or debating a certain issue over and over. According to a Hispanic news site, by working hard with minority groups, the Democrats can supposedly help insure that their damages are minimal (2). Also, what damage is done is done. The Democrats should not dwell on errors that they made during 2009. In my opinion, it’s about time that parties look at the present and work hard, while using the past as a way of eliminating mistakes, but not dwelling on it. In order for the Democrats to stay in power, they need to have a forward-looking view and focus on issues of the future and making those quality.
In regards to the Republicans, the task is only slightly easier. I feel that the Republicans are in general already doing what they are supposed to do, which is point out errors in the Democratic party, but in order for them to really change things in their favor, they must offer constructive solutions as well. It’s easy for a party to simply say, “Well hey! They’re doing this all wrong,” but very difficult to offer a reasonable solution to whatever is going on. Also, since many Republicans are leaving the House as well as Democrats, it curtails their gains as well. So far, there are 14 Republicans leaving, a substantial number (3). However, if the Republicans can form a strong following by providing alternatives to the Democratic Party, I think they can help secure themselves more seats in Congress easily.
I have some predictions of my own. However drastic people seem to feel the midterm elections will be, I have reservations about calling it quits on the Democrats. In one year, Obama cannot be expected to get everything done. Congress cannot be expected to be perfect, and I think most people have that good sense. I find it debatable that the Democratic party will really suffer too much. However, I am a bit worried that an increase in Republican seats will simply make the government more inefficient. Even with a majority on both houses of Congress, the Democrats cannot always pass their agenda. With a higher proportion of Republicans, there is hardly a chance that anything will be accomplished. Only time will tell for the parties what the American people want now. I just hope it is for the best.
1) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
2) http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/news/2010/1/7/can_senate_democrats_keep_edge_in.htm
3) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
Historically, every midterm election has resulted in losses of seats from the current president’s party. Americans are impatient people, and if one party isn’t giving them everything they want, they are quick to vote for the other party. This means that there will likely be troubles for the Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. Even the least pessimistic Democrats fear sizable losses in November (1). The question is, how much of their majority will they lose?
High unemployment rates and a failure to pass healthcare legislation that makes sense to the average American has plagued the Democrats over this past year (1). Unless the economic outlook improves before then, or public opinion of healthcare legislation turns out to be more popular than it has during the congressional debate, the Democrats are likely to lose 20-25 seats in the House (1). For example, Patrick Hughes is being backed by a number of Tea Party antitax groups. He is a conservative candidate who will be running for the Senate seat once held by President Obama. “People are afraid that their country is becoming a country of left-wing principles that they don’t espouse,” he stated (2).
During the Bush administration, people complained that the country was becoming too conservative. Now under the more left-wing Obama administration, the growing general feeling is that the government is too liberal (2). This could show in the likely gains for Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections. “Primaries are going to work themselves out,” said Brian Walsh, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “But at the end of the day in poll after poll it’s the Republican candidates who are ahead of Democrat candidates in all of these states” (2).
I predict that the Republicans will gain some seats in Congress. For Republicans to increase their gain, they will need to push the issue of the Obama administration being too left-wing, point out the inability to pass healthcare legislation, and the economy not improving fast enough. The Democrats can help alleviate their loss by making sure their voter strongholds vote in the midterm elections, emphasis how the economy is slowly but surely improving, and arguing that the healthcare legislation is making its way through Congress. I think this constant flip-flop between party gains and losses shows how most Americans are moderate, and neither party can please Americans completely.
(1) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
(2)http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/weekinreview/10herszenhorn.html?ref=politics
With the midterm elections 10 months away, the Democrats are trying to find a way to keep their majority despite difficulties. I think the biggest difficulty Democrats have going into the midterm elections is voter satisfaction. This past year is one in which voter dissatisfaction is palpable. Also the euphoria among Democrats has disappeared in the face of a high unemployment rate and controversy over their efforts to pass comprehensive health-care legislation (1). I think because the Democrats have had a difficult time getting a majority vote to pass their own health care bills says something to the public. The fact that the Democrats added in extra provisions to the health care bill just to get one more senator to pass it will not sit well with voters. Another difficulty I think the Democrats will face is getting more moderate voters to vote for them. The Democrats barely got a majority vote on their health care bill and no Republicans supported it. I think that some people will not like that the Democrats could not create a bill that had more broad appeal and could vote for Republicans instead.
When it comes to the Democrats protecting their majority, I think it will be very difficult to do so. Polls show unhappiness with the Democrats over their handling of the economy, in particular the high levels of unemployment (2). I think the only way for Democrats to be successful in the upcoming election is to address these types of issues now. If the Democrats continue to find themselves in gridlock with every issue they try to pass then they won’t keep the majority. However they still have 10 months until the election to prove that they can get things done. I think this is the only possible way the Democrats have that would possibly allow them to keep their majority at this point. If the Democrats are unable to get much of anything done within these 10 months I think they will definitely lose their majority in Congress.
I think the Republicans have a very good chance of gaining many seats Congress. This not only comes from the 10 retirements occurring in the Democratic Party but also the fact that traditionally the first midterm elections for a new president are marked by significant House losses for his party (3). I think that Republicans are going to gain seats regardless of historical traditions because the Democrats have so far been unable to agree on many things, the health care bill for example took a lot of bargaining on the Democrats part just to pass it in the Senate. This does not go over well with Americans because the Democrats promised change and so far they can’t agree on how to do it. Since all the Republicans in Congress have stuck together and no one has voted with the Democrats on the health care bill that Republicans are able to work together to make decisions. I think this alone could help the Republicans gain seats in Congress.
My predictions for the midterm elections are that the Republicans will gain a double digit majority in Congress. Battles over healthcare, the climate change bill, and hundreds of billions in spending to spur the economy has allowed for Democrats to face backlash and Republicans campaigning for a promise of change (4). I think that the reasons listed before will affect the Democrats greatly in the midterm elections and will leave the door open for Republicans to gain seats and maybe even a majority in one of the houses.
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2010010602314
2. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/06/democrat-senators-governors-election-obama
3. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
4. http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-midterm1-2010jan01,0,453106.story
Bottom line – the Democrats will lose seats. Why? One reason why is because of the economic situation this administration inherited. I know the Obama administration has only been in office for a short while, but this is a country that works faster than any other nation in the world and people want results – whether or not they are feasible does not matter. Since Obama took office, there has not been a significant recovery in the economy and in many parts of the economy it has gotten worse.(1) Now, I don’t expect Obama to cure the recession instantly but I also didn’t expect it to get worse, especially since, for example, the DOW was rising steadily previous to the election campaign. However, Obama made many promises to help him get elected and people got so caught up in his charisma and charm that they forgot he is still human, as well as only one part of a three branched government. He is not a savior of any kind, he is a president, and he should not have made so many intangible promises because the people were desperate for change and would have bought into anything. Because of this, people may feel let down and be more inclined to vote for change…once again (this is called the “Negative vote theory, which says that people are dissatisfied with the status quo and ipso facto vote for the other party).(2) Even if many promises were kept, and I do acknowledge that there were some kept, there has been a tendency “over the past six decades” that the party in control of the executive branch loses seats in the legislative.(2) Whatever theory one conjures up to explain this is irrelevant in the sense that it has happened consistently since WWII so if history repeats itself, the Democrats will lose seats. The question is not will they lose seats, though, it is how many. According to a formula Alan I. Abramowitz has come up with – which has been very accurate in previous elections – that considers how many seats both parties occupy, how many seats are up for grabs, “generic ballot”, and the president’s approval rating, the Democrats could lose as low as 15 seats in the House or as high as 40, and in the Senate Alan’s equation predicted a small 3-4 seat loss for the Democrats. The Republicans won’t take back the majority, but they will weaken the Democrat’s. In a time when party loyalty is at a low, this plays a huge role in passing legislation.(1) These are the problems the Democrats are going to have. Basically, I think people are going to look at what is happen in the economy and say, “What happened to ‘Hope’ and ‘Change’? Why isn’t Obama snapping his fingers and solving the economy?” Once again, I don’t expect him too but I have the feeling many do.(3)
One piece of advice I have for the Democrats is to point out what they had to work with. They need to say, “Hey, look. We took over when the country was in one of the worst economic recessions in history and the country was already in debt, major debt. We’ve only had two years to work with the situation, give us more time.” The Democrats need to slowly back out of the supernatural promises that were made during the presidential campaign and start working on realistic terms. What I would advise the Republicans to do is separate themselves from the Bush administration and their policies. Although he is out of office, he is not out of mind and many people immediately think of him when they hear the word Republican. Also, they need to somehow convince the people that they will not spend as much as Obama and still fix the economy. Deficit spending is one of the most irritating strategies in my mind and I would not support the Republicans if they went down that road as well.
1- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123604419092515347.html
2- http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2009090301
3- http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31180.html
This year's midterm elections may be facing some problems that will make it more interesting and potentially problematic for the Democrats. The Democrats are facing an uphill battle for a few different reasons. First is the economic situation. Due to the burst of the housing bubble and the high unemployment rate, the voters are still unhappy of the current agenda. While the Republicans may not be able to offer a strong solution to the economy, the Democrats, being the majority in office, are more likely to be hurt by this due to the perception of Congressional majority and Obama's election (1). Second is inevitability. Pelosi makes a statement saying that the President's party almost always loses seats, especially in the first election (2). This makes the Democrats are the more likely to due to the large amounts of political capital spent on health care that the American public's support has slowly declined for and the ambitious agenda that Obama has attempted to pursue such as the economy, Copenhagen, Gitmo, Afghanistan, and health care all make the brink much closer for the Democrats to lose seats. Pelosi's advice to the Democrats is that they need to stay united throughout the elections in order to strengthen the party's decision making abilities and appear strong (2).
While the Republicans have the ability to say they're a break from the status quo, voters are wary of the party. Polls have shown that voters are even less happy with the Republicans than the Democrats at this point, so this is not an easy task to get 40 House seats and 11 Senate seats. The GOP needs to be able to capitalize by pointing out the false promises Obama has made and defend tax cuts to close out the economy situation (3). My prediction about this election is that the Democrats will definitely lose some seats, but not enough for the Republicans to overtake the Senate or House due to strong Democrat promises, the almost done deal of health care reform, and the lack of overwhelming GOP support and lack of unity in the GOP.
1. http://www.scpr.org/news/2010/01/04/democrats-could-be-hurt-worst-midterm-elections/
2. http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/59215-pelosi-democrats-facing-toughest-midterms-ever
3. http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-midterm1-2010jan01,0,453106.story
Midterm elections are always interesting because they can show how quickly the people can become tired of the current leadership. In recent decades, a party in power of the presidency and congress almost always loses seats in the midterm elections. This happened under Clinton in 1994, and Bush in 2006. It’s not surprising that the Democrats and Republicans are preparing early for the elections. In the 2008 elections, the Democrats won the presidency and reaffirmed their hold of the House and Senate. In order to control their majorities, the Democrats will have to overcome difficulties, such as prominent politicians retiring. Senator Chris Dodd became the latest not to seek reelection (1). This problem affects both sides, as the Republicans have over 14 seats retiring as well (2). This will lead to more elections without an incumbent advantage. The winners of these elections could reflect the mood of the people towards government. Another problem the Democrats will have is displaying their accomplishments. There were a lot of promises made in the last election, and with a clear majority, the Democrats sought to accomplish a lot of issues. After a year, however, it is somewhat unclear to people what they actually did. I think people were a little frustrated at how long the Health Care bill took to get passed, and a lot of problems are left unsolved. It is the Democrats job to emphasize the importance of the Health Care bill and remain positive for the future. White house senior advisor David Axelrod recently stated that he foresaw the challenge the Democrats will have but he remains optimistic because of what they have accomplished this year (1).
My advice to the Democrats is to become more unified as a party and take credit for their decisions. It became apparent during the health care debates that the Democrats were not together on a lot of issues. They may have had a majority, but it seemed just as hard to get anything passed. The Democrats need to find common ground in the next election and play it off as if they are all one party. They also need to present their accomplishments of the past year or so in a positive light.
The Republicans have a slightly easier job. If the Democrats struggle to keep their momentum, Republicans will get elected just as an opposition vote. The Republicans need to point out what the Democrats did wrong over the past year, and also what they could do better. They also need to decide if they should take a moderate stance or a more conservative one. Representative Mark Kirk, who is a moderate Republican, is facing a challenge for the Senate primary race from more conservative candidates (3). If they take a moderate stance, Republicans may have difficulty distinguishing their views from Democrats. If they take a more conservative stance, it may alienate many people in the party.
My prediction is that the Republicans will take back a few seats in the next election. They will get enough Senate seats to stop the filibuster. However, I still think Democrats will keep a small majority. Barack Obama’s momentum is still present, and I think the country’s mood hasn’t changed that drastically. However, the election is still many months away and anything can happen,
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2010010602314
2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
3. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/weekinreview/10herszenhorn.html?ref=politics
If one thing is for sure, it is that this upcoming midterm election will have a huge effect on what happens in government. With a third of the Senate being up for re election and the entire House, it is very possible we will be seeing a large change in government (1). Democrats will face many difficulties in keeping the Democratic leaders in office. People have a tendency to vote against the party in power during midterm elections because mainly constituents with strong feelings are the ones to cast their votes, and there is a lower voter turnout because it is not a presidential year (3). The Democrats will have to be viewed in a positive light during election time in order to maintain the pull they have right now in both the House and Senate. Many issues contribute to their standings. Within the issue of Healthcare, the Senate and House are looking to get together to attempt to extend healthcare and add new protection to policy holders. There may be a final vote by early February (1). Depending on how this is taken by the public, and what is exactly passed on the bill, it could make voters for or against Democrats. Jobs would be another factor. As of right now, unemployment rates are high, however the House just passed a $154 billion jobs package and may pursue further measures before the election (1). Immigration is another issue that the current government may or may not get around to dealing with (1). The Patriot Act is another issue. The terrorist law will “lapse” if not renewed by the end of February, and depending on actions taken could encourage voters either way (1). Other issues considered would be financial regulation, estate taxes, climate change, Guantanamo and terrorism (1).
I think that in order for the Democrats to protect their seats, they must make sure to keep their status up, and use similar methods of Barack Obama by taking not only the left but many moderates as well (2). They also need to get the word out. The election will probably be more likely to turn out in the Democrats favor if they make sure that Democrats get out and vote. I think that people are more likely to vote if they are mad, like in 2006, when Democrats were upset with President Bush’s current standings and the midterms turned more heavily Democratic (2). If this is the case, the Democratic party needs to make sure their supporters go out and vote. Another item would be that the president needs to “distance himself from Wall Street” (3). Things such as the bank bailouts and behavior of financiers reflects poorly on the government, Obama, and the Democratic party. However, if Democrats can somehow get themselves away, or at least prove they have done enough other positive things, they will do better in the midterms.
If the Republican party wants to gain more seats, they need to capitalize on the problems in the United States right now, and find ways to tie them to the Democrats. I think that Republicans need to make sure not to make the mistake of trying too hard to please far right voters (3). If they do this they risk losing the moderates who may somewhat support the Republican party but may get turned off by a very far right candidate and not vote or vote Democratic. Another way Republicans could gain more votes in the midterm election would be by showing voters how they would and could’ve handled events that took place when the Democratic party had so much power. I think that if they don’t necessarily attack Democrats, but show voters how they have a plan to do things differently or more efficiently, they have a good chance of gaining a lot of respect from especially moderate voters, or the voter who may not be entirely informed, but can respect a newer point of view.
I predict that the Republican party will gain a number of seats in the midterm elections. I think that “fate” is very much so in their favor, they just have to make sure that they capitalize on it in the right manner. I think that if they don’t play dirty and they really use ideas and evidence to support their claims they could definitely sway a lot of moderate voters who aren’t happy with the current situation. Although I say this, I also think that it is still very early to make predictions. I think it is possible that in the next couple of months, Obama and the current Congress could make a lot of positive progress or even negative progress, but I don’t really think there is enough actions made right now to make a call on what is to happen. I also think that people may be underestimating the numbers of heavy Obama supporters. Even though many claim not much has been accomplished in the White House, I think Obama still has a sort of mystic charm that a lot of people are drawn to. Even if he makes mistakes, he still seems to have this immense following that may show up in large numbers during the midterm election. The last presidential election got many people out to vote who hadn’t in the past, and I think it is possible that this may keep up in the midterm elections, especially if Obama makes it a point to encourage voters.
1. http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-congress-lookahead10-2010jan10,0,7197499.story
2. http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003276805
3. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/03/AR2010010301813.html
There is no doubt that the 2010 midterm elections will be interesting as well as detrimental to the future. The successfulness of the policies and plans that Obama has for are nation will be determined by these elections; will the Democrats remain the majority, or will the Republicans win? Right now the Democrats seem to be in a dangerous position facing many difficulties. First of all, the history of midterm elections is not on their side. Since the Presidency is Democratic, and things aren’t going so hot, people may want change. History has shown that for new presidents, the first midterms usually bring a significant loss for his party in the houses (1). Democrats are also challenged by the numerous retirement announcements of Democrat incumbents. Five Democrats are retiring while another six are running for other offices. This is less than the 14 open seats for the Republicans (2). Even if the Republicans don’t make significant gains in congress, Democrats will have difficulty holding onto their 60 seat proof filibuster majority (5). Republicans only need to gain one seat. Unfortunately this will be an incredibly difficult challenge for the Democrats.
Though the Democrats have their word cut out for them, I would advise them to remind the electorate of what they stand for. Even though the political landscape under the Democrat majority seems not very bright right now, they need to remind their constituents that they are working hard to complete legislation on healthcare and still trying to rebuild the economy (3). I also believe it would be in their best interest for them to attack the Republicans platform. They should ask the public whether or not they think the Republicans could offer them what they want, and if they stand for what they believe in.
As for the Republicans, it seems to me that if they play their cards right, the majority win is not an impossibility. I would advise the Republicans to attack the Democrats as well. Already, Republicans have attacked the “Pelosi index” which links Democratic members of Congress to “leftist agendas.” (4). It would also be wise of the Republicans to confront the public about the lack of decision making and actual action taken under the Democratic majority. Democrats have failed to deliver a healthcare reform bill, and even if they were to do so before midterms, they have yet to address an economic stimulus, financial regulation, climate change legislation, and immigrant reform (5). Republicans should be campaigning these issues and how they will achieve all that the Democrats have not been able to.
I am excited to see what actually happens in this election because I believe that things could go either way. I predict, however, that the Republicans will gain a lot of the open seats, if not the majority. Like I said before, I think that the Republicans have history on their side. Also, the American people are not happy with what the Democrats are doing, and if they want to see change I think they will vote Republican. I also think that the Republicans have an advantage with the opening of Democrat seats in four Republican swinging states (1). Overall thought, the race will be a close on, with the win up for grabs.
(1) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
(2) http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2010/01/06/why-so-many-democrats-headed-for-the-exits/
(3) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid%3Dtopnews%26sid%3DST2010010http://www.http://www.washingtonpost.com:80/ac2/wp-dyn?node=admin/registration/register
(4) http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/01/04/gop-group-targets-vulnerable-dems-with-pelosi-index/
(5) http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/01/07/democrats-chance-change/
Midterm elections and their respective campaigns are fast approaching in the American political arena. As always, these elections will be critical because they give the American public a chance to express their opinions about the current administration in power. Political scientists seem to agree that while these elections will be difficult for both of the two major parties, the Republicans should be successful in gaining back some seats in both houses of Congress.
It is simply expected that the Democrats will be unable to maintain their 256-178 majority in the House and 58-40 edge in the Senate (along with two Independents who vote with the Democrats) (1). Since the mid-1800s, the party in control of the White House has lost seats during every midterm election with the exception of the 1934 (Great Depression) and 2002 (following September 11) elections (1). This statistic should be enough to make Democrats wary. Aside from the historical precedent, Democrats will be surrounded by many other poignant difficulties. Most present in the news right now are the stories of leading Democratic retirements. These include: Sen. Chris Dodd (Connecticut), Sen. Byron Dorgan, (North Dakota) and Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter (2). While all of these men claimed to be stepping down for various personal reasons, one must assume that the thought of extremely difficult campaigns and low polling numbers are at least at the back of their minds. Furthermore, Democrats are likely to be hurt by the economy, especially the fact that unemployment levels still remain high. According to our government textbook, 24 percent of Americans are “nature of the times voters,” meaning that they vote based on if “the times seem good or bad to them” (3). While these people may have previously supported the Democrats, now there is the possibility that they will default to the Republicans because the Democrats were unable to significantly improve the country’s economic situation. Lastly, Democrats may face difficulties if they are unable to revive the popular support and momentum that they had during Obama’s presidential campaign. Democrats were able to capitalize on their ideas for change following the Bush administration. However, now that they are in control, it appears that they have been unable to follow through on some of these promises in an efficient manner. While they are likely to pass the health care reform bill, drafting it took a long time and any disagreements that occurred within the party were presented daily through the media. Also, no far reaching United States legislation has been passed in response to global warming. Additionally, President Obama has advocated many divisive policies, including the auto industry bailout and Afghanistan troop surge.
To prevent significant losses, I would recommend that the Democrats return to the strategies that helped them to be extremely successful during President Obama’s campaign. Obama is a young, charming, and charismatic individual. He was able to remain calm and dignified during speeches and debates. Also, he campaigned with a message that appealed to not only the most obvious Democratic supporters but also to people who do not regularly vote and successfully brought them to the polls. For example, his campaign was able to drive up young voter participation by 135% (4). To be successful this year, Democrats will need to find candidates that can once again appeal to these (now second-time) voters and return them to the polls in large numbers.
On the contrary, Republicans will need to prove that they dutifully played the role of the minority party. They need to provide a check on the Democrats and give people new options. In order to gain votes, they should specify clear problems within the country and how, if elected, they would fix them. This will show the American people that there are other valid alternatives and give them a true choice in the election. For example, they can emphasize how the Obama administration has increased the deficit from about $500 billion in 2008 to between $1.75 and $1.85 trillion in 2009 (5). As budget analyst Brian Reidl pointed out, “These are the first trillion-dollar deficits the world has ever seen” (6). Republicans can emphasize that while Democrats have potentially good intentions with their social programs, the Democrats need money to pay for these programs. Currently, the Democrats have solved this problem with potential tax increases and deficit spending. Republicans should try to find comprehensible ways to improve our economy without spending as much money. In order to properly emphasize these changes, Republicans will need to find a set of new candidates that break the typical Republican stereotype. They need to look to younger people with fresh, new ideas and exciting ways to convey them, not the typical stuffy, old, white men that have represented the Republican Party in the past. I believe that this will help to appeal to new, independent voters.
Based on my early speculation and research, I predict that the Republicans will be successful at gaining many seats in both the Senate and House. I do not think that they will garner enough support to erase the Democratic majorities in either of them. However, the midterm elections will depend on the political events throughout the next year. For example, many major Democrats, such as Harry Reid, who are up for re-election have thrown much of their support and political clout behind the current health care bill. The eventual passage and positive or negative public reaction to this single piece of legislation could determine the fates of both many Republicans and Democrats alike.
1: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/10/17/republicans-eye-democratic-leaders-midterm-elections/
2: http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-dodd-democrats7-2010jan07,0,7018263.story
3: Edwards, George C. Government in America: People, Politics, and Policy. New York: Pearson Education, Inc., 2006.
4: http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1700525,00.html
5: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/03/21/GR2009032100104.html
6: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/02/20/americas-deficit-spending-spree-raises-alarms/
I believe the democrats will have problems overcoming their mistakes over the past year. I think most Americans are concerned with the massive spending that has taken place. Republicans started to make gains in the polls after they unanimously opposed the stimulus package that was past last February [1]. I believe the "transparency" of passing a piece of major legislation on Christmas Eve morning with back room deals will also hurt the party. I think most people are upset that their tax dollars will go to paying for these deals. I also believe that making statements against the Tea Party while they were protesting was a mistake. These people are those who feel BOTH parties are not doing what they are suppose to and by coming out against them, the Democrats have hurt their chances of trying to gain their support. As we have learned, not a lot of people get out to vote in elections that are not on presidential election years. If a majority of those who show up are these tea party protesters, then the Democrats majority is in real trouble [2].
The Wall Street Journal has written an article about this very subject. I believe they need to scrap the current health care bill and start over with it. As of now the current bill stands to "increase costs, raise premiums and slash Medicare" [3]. This is a huge issue as the Democrats have been stating that this bill will allow use to cover more people and it would cost less. Although admitting that it would raise taxes would hurt the Democrats, I believe that if they scrap it and start over this bill could actually be worth the political capital that was put into it. The Democrats also NEED to focus on jobs and the economy. With unemployment at 10% already, I believe it is essential for the United States to create more jobs in order recover fully and handle our growing deficit. [4]
I believe the Republicans are on track to already gain seats in Congress. I believe that if they can get the Tea party followers in the next election. There is a growing dissatisfaction with the Democratic party in this country. In order to gain seats the Republicans just need to stand their ground on health care and the massive spending. They need to com up with a plan to reduce unemployment and improve our economy. By focusing on these major issues I believe they can win seats in the midterm elections.
I believe most people are angry. They have read the bill or seen what is in it and are not happy [5]. I predict that the Republicans will gain seats in Congress. Maybe not enough to completely flip the minority and majority (if only) but they will hopefully get enough to break the Democrats filibuster proof majority.
[1] http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
[2] http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/01/08/tea-party-movement-poised-strong-start/
[3] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126058555567888547.html
[4] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126289366012820099.html
[5] http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YTE0ZmQ2NGZkZGVhY2Q2Mzg3OWNiMzhmMTg4MzU5NWY=&w=MQ==
The Democrats are preparing for many challenges they will face in the upcoming November midterm elections. First, there are many seats that will be open for office. Term limits alone are opening up thirteen total seats in Congress for the Democrats and only four for the Republicans, and that is not including the many Democrats that are choosing not to run for reelection this year (3). Second, President Obama has a low approval rating by the public. According to pollster.com, his overall approval rating has dropped from 80% to 48% since he has gained office (1). This means that nature-of-the-times voters and others who are on the fence as to which party to vote for will most likely vote Republican, as they hope to see a change in the current policies regarding healthcare legislation, the economy, and other hot topics. Lastly, a major challenge for the Democrats is the historical trend of a party other than that of the president taking over Congress after the election of the new president. In this case, since Obama is a Democrat, it is probable that the public will vote for Republican Congressional candidates in order to avoid giving too much power to the Democrats (2). I believe that it is in the Democratic Party's best interest to work hard on getting the economy in shape from here until November. The condition of the economy is arguably one of the greatest issues facing the U.S currently, and by not implementing an economic stimulus to boost the economy, the Democrats are proving that they are not doing enough to suit the needs of the country, which voters obviously frown upon. Fixing the economy should be first and foremost in the plans of the Democrats in order to keep their majority in Congress. For the Republicans, I think it would be wise of them to focus less on the economy and more on taking fresh steps toward climate legislation, national security, and healthcare bills in order to win congressional seats. These issues have been drawn out for too long, and I believe that if the Republicans offered realistic programs and ideas in these areas, voters would be more attracted to their party in the midterm elections. People want change, especially considering the increasing threat of global warming, the Christmas terrorist scare, and the ongoing debates on healthcare reform.
I predict that Republicans will in fact gain a majority in Congress in the midterm elections. As stated before, it is a political trend for the majority of Congress to be the opposite party than that of a newly elected president. I believe that this trend will be especially true in the upcoming elections, simply because of the dissatisfaction that many American have of President Obama. I think that they will vote for the Republicans in Congress in hopes that this party will do a better job than what is currently being done by the Democrats in Congress.
1. http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-midterm1-2010jan01,0,453106.story?track=rss
2. http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/jan/03/lot-riding-midterm-elections/
3. http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/jan/03/lot-riding-midterm-elections/
Newly elected Democratic presidents almost always see a loss of Democratic seats in the first off-year election [1]. There is a perfectly logical explanation for why Dems lose more than Republicans, too. A Republican president is elected without a great and ambitious mandate for change. So their inaction doesn’t hit them as hard at mid-term elections [1]. The Democratic president is elected because things aren’t as good as we want them to be, and we elect them to bring change for the country. It’s one thing to promise universal healthcare on the campaign trail, but it’s quite another entirely to actually get it done, in the face of fierce opposition from the GOP. This isn’t to say that Obama lied or mislead the American people, it’s simply to say that it’s very difficult to get meaningful things in government without an overwhelming majority. One way or another, the people check back in two years later and say, “Hey! We elected you to do items, A, B, C, and D! What have you been doing the last two years?” And then they decide not to reward “sitting around” with their votes, and either vote GOP or stay home [2]. If we want to look past mud-slinging (which both parties will invariably do), the Democrats ought to highlight the great steps taken by government over the last two years, and talk about the potential things to come, while the Republicans should call those empty promises, citing the last two years as proof. I believe the Democrats will lose seats, but not the majority.
[1] “Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections” http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/mid-term_elections.php
[2] “Dodd, Dorgan and Ritter to retire as Democrats face difficult midterm election year” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
I enjoyed reading Ben’s blog. I am in very much agreement with him. It will be very difficult for the Democratic Party to regain power in Congress. I liked how Ben stated, “this is a country that works faster than any other nation in the world and people want results – whether or not they are feasible does not matter.” When people rip on the President, they usually do no realize what problems he actually faces. It is impossible to fix all of our domestic problems in a matter of a year or two, let alone work with other world leaders to fix international problems. People should treat our President with respect rather than thinking of him as a God. Some may say that President Obama brought himself into the situation he is in with all of the promises he made during his campaign. I feel that in order to win the presidency in our country, presidential nominations need to make promises to the American public. This may result in extending the truth or making the job sound uncomplicated. Is this another negative side of our political campaign process? I think so. People need to remember that our government is a three-branch government and that the President is not able to do everything he wishes.
As we all know the economic and health care situations are not going well. I do not feel that the Democrats will lose a significant amount of votes to the Republican Party. Instead, I believe the Democratic Party will lose the support and power they held in the 2008 presidential campaign. Meaning, the people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 may not vote in the 2010 elections. Obama was able to get a lot of people who had not been registered to vote … to vote in 2008. According to the Washington Post, “since the start of the year, 202,000 people have registered to vote in Virginia. Of those, 64 percent are younger than 35, a demographic Obama expects to win handily.” (1) Moreover, “Virginia has added nearly a quarter-million registered voters since the 2004 elections, and about half of that growth came from increasingly Democratic Northern Virginia.” (1) I think these people are still in favor of Obama but are less willing to show up at the polls in 2010. Thus, the Democratic Party losing a significant amount of votes to their own party and the power shifting to the Republican Party. In addition, I think President Obama’s decision to send in 30,000 more troops into Afghanistan will make an impression on Independent voters. I recommend the Democratic Party (especially President Obama) encouraging everyone who gave him support in 2008 to give the Democratic Party that same support in 2010. He needs to influence newly registered voters that power in the executive branch is just as important in the legislative branch. For his plans to positively affect his supporters, they need to vote for his party in 2010.
In addition, I think it is important for the Democratic Party to use their youth support. President Obama had a significant number of young voters vote for him. It is important to target these same voters through means of technology used by the youth. For example: facebook, youtube, text messaging, etc. According to mocoNews.net, “In the final month leading up to the election, the Obama campaign used mobile advertising to target the youth demographic and voters in key battleground states.” (2) The Democratic Party needs to take advantage of their youth support and carry that into 2010.
For the Republican Party to regain power in Congress it is important for them to point out President Obama’s flaws in office. According to the Washington Times, “Top Republicans said that President Obama has been distracted from the terrorism threat against the United States by his ambitious domestic agenda — health care, climate change, the economy — and one former Bush official said the president has let down the national intelligence community.” (3) It is important for the GOP to connect this to the American public. As I said early, it is very hard for Presidents to fix all of our country’s problems in a matter of two short years. Many people do not realize this and the Republican Party has a wide open door to capitalize. They can easily make many accusations to the Democratic Party. They need to “blow caution to the wind” and go into the 2010 elections very blunt. Like Dan Larson stated, the 2010 elections are fairly far away. I think the mid-term elections are going to be closer than most people are expecting.
Citations:
Citations:
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/17/AR2008081702592.html?sid=ST2008081801019&s_pos=
2. http://moconews.net/article/419-obama-used-mobile-advertising-to-target-youth-and-voters-in-key-battleg/
3. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/04/security-pushed-aside-gop-says/?source=newsletter_must-read-stories-today_photo_feature
With the mid-term elections coming up I think that the Democrats will struggle to keep the majority in Congress. To answer the first question, I think that the Democrats, especially Obama, has not lived up to his hype as the president. I do think that he is a symbol for hope and change but I haven't seen as much change as he said he would make. There is a large list of the accomplishments, including the bailout and reversing restrictions on stem-cell research but I think that the change he made has created conflict and hasn't made a big enough positive change for the people to jump on the Obama bandwagon (1). Also, there are a lot of things that Obama has said he would do, and has not yet. One thing he has not done that we are talking about now is remove lobbyist jobs (2). This is something that we are talking about now in class so it is something we all can see form an opinion on. I think that the Democrats will have a hard time bragging about what they have done in the past year. The most recent major issue in Congress was a Democratic flop because the health care bill ended up being what some Democrats wanted and what some Democrats said they didn't. The fact that their own party is disagreeing cannot give the people much confidence that what they are doing is going to work in years to come.
In order to protect their majority, I agree with Peter's method in focusing on their public image. They need to make their party look like the better of the two and not focus on the mistakes that they have made in the past. I do not think that it is a big deal that a health care policy has not been put into action, but I think the best thing they can do now is assure that it will be put into action in the future. They also need to focus on the things they have done positively. I think one important thing is that the unemployment rate has steadily gone done within the past year. At the moment it is at 9.4% which is .2 lower than in September 2009 (3). Another way to keep their majority safe is to exploit the fact that the Republican party is fading out. With 14 Republican Congressmen not running for re-election this coming election, the Democrats have the experience over the new-comer Republicans (4).
All the Republicans need to do is point out the flaws of the Democratic years of majority. Although they have had bad majority years, the people will mostly see what the Democrats are not doing for them right now. To play devil's advocate for what I said above, the new Republican nominee's can be a fresh, new image of the Republican party and appeal to people they may not have appealed to before. They also need to look back and talk about the successes they have made as a Republican party and explain that they are not like the Republican party during George Bush's presidency anymore; because some Republican followers before Bush did not stay with the party.
I think that the Republicans will take the majority simply because they have not made enough action in Congress. With the majority, they find it still very difficult to pass things like the health care bill because their party alone cannot even come to terms. There needs to be a change in the way things are being done because it has been a stalemate over that argument. I also believe the Republicans will win because they have a bunch of new faces coming in. People that may not have voted for the old Republican congressmen may sway back to the right instead of seeing the Republicans as too conservative.
1)http://www.whatisobamadoing.com/2009/05/20/so-what-has-obama-really-done-so-far/
2) http://www.wnd.com/index.php?pageId=91286
3)http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate&tdim=true&q=unemployment+rate
4) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
The 2008 election showed that America was ready for a change. The results of this election were obvious: Congress now had a democratic majority along with a Democratic president in office. Now two years later in 2010, the midterm elections will serve to show if Americans still believe in the choices they made two years previously. In the midterm elections some of the difficulties that the Democrats will face are being confronted with the fact that they have not fully followed through with many campaign promises [1]. The stimulus package they passed promised to create jobs, but it instead fed money into Wall Street and has only created unsustainable jobs in the government sector [1]. President Obama and Congress promised that they would put people back to work by fixing the nation’s infrastructure, our schools, and investing in new green technology [1]. The healthcare debate has continued to lag on, and many wonder that if the Democrats are not able to pass a bill in the near future then they may not be able to follow through on any action [2]. The Democrats have struggled to meet their lofty campaign promises. To voters this looks like the Democratic Party has can’t enact their own change. Some advice I would give to the Democratic Party is to first of all pass a healthcare bill. This would show that the party’s unified goal could be achieved and their promises had followed through [2]. I also think that the Democrats should demonstrate some level of bipartisanship on this bill and others that they may try to push through. By involving the Republicans it takes some of the pressure off of the Democrats and leaves both parties satisfied [1]. Finally, I think that in 2010 Democrats need to show that they haven’t forgotten about the economy. By cutting out waste, fraud, and regulating Wall Street, Washington could show the common citizen that our economy is headed in a new direction [1]. Advice that I would give to Republicans in this upcoming election is to be clear with your points, and only promise what you can accomplish. On the subject of healthcare I think the republicans need to fully articulate why they have blocked the Democrats efforts, and offer their own solutions that would satisfy a bipartisan bill. With the many senators and representatives retiring, the final piece of advice I’d give to the republicans would be to capitalize on these open seats [3]. It’s easiest to win a seat in Congress when there is no incumbent running [3]. Lastly my predictions about the outcome of the 2010 midterm elections really hinge on what happens with the healthcare bill. Either way I think that the Republicans will gain seats in both houses, but if the bill fails to pass their gains will be even larger [4]. If the healthcare bill fails to pass the Democrats face extremely tough competition, and it will be close to impossible to continue any progress. Although I think people in general favor the stance Democrats have taken on the recent issues, as of now they’ve seen no results. I believe the outcome of the election really hinges on the months before the election and the healthcare bill.
[1]. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/08/AR2010010803553_3.html
[2]. http://prescriptions.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/09/overhaul-success-or-not-democrats-brace-for-losses/?scp=1&sq=Democrats%20midterm%20elections&st=cse
[3]. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/04/us/04iht-letter.html?scp=2&sq=Democrats%20midterm%20elections&st=cse
[4]. http://www.gallup.com/poll/121946/early-read-2010-suggests-midterms-competitive.aspx
As the 2010 midterm elections approach, heavy debate about how the election will affect the legislative branch has already begun. "The largest factor in favor in their favor is the weight of history. The first midterm elections for a new president are traditionally marked by significant House losses for his party" (1). Democrats are going to have a hard time keeping the seats they have and/or gaining seats when historically during the first midterm election the party that has the presidency loses seats. With the tough economic times the United States is in right now, this creates for more unrest among citizens. This unrest comes people turning to other possible answers, causing them to turn to the Republican party to see if things they will bring the change they are asking for. "Given public unrest in light of high unemployment and general economic struggles, Republicans and some independent analysts have suggested that Democrats are in danger of losing the 41 seats necessary to put Republicans back in control" (2). For the Democrats to protect their majority in Congress they are going to have to do a lot of campaigning to convince citizens that they are still planning on getting the job done. They should focus on what they have already done and what they are planning to do. Focusing possibly on how they need more time to get these things done that they have on the agenda and how they will be good for the country if they are done. Republicans to gain seats in Congress should focus on what the Democrats are doing wrong and how they could do the job better.
Republicans at this point have the advantage because typically the party holding the presidency loses seats in the first midterm election. But if they want to stay true to history, they are still going to have to work for it. They will have to focus on a new image and their plan to change things. "Rapid swing was underscored by the sudden announcements that Senators Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut and Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota would rather retire than fight the uphill and uncertain battle toward re-election. Word that the Democratic governor of Colorado, Bill Ritter, had made the same decision only heightened the perception that the party's fortunes had turned after a year in which a conservative push against Mr. Obama's ambitious agenda, a sluggish recovery from the deep recession and an outbreak of angry populism nibbled away at his political strength" (3). If this became a domino effect for Democrats then they would be even more prone to being vulnerable in this upcoming election. But Republicans are going to have their share of retirements also. I feel as if President Obama made many promises when coming into office, it's going to be hard for people to accept that he isn't going to be able to get everything done that the Democratic party ideally wanted to get done right away. Many people may not accept that fact, therefore being disappointed will turn to the Republican party for answers. I think that if the Republican party offers good answers and solutions to the problems at hand and have candidates that people like, they could have a good chance at gaining a decent amount of seats. Julie Carr Smyth from the Star Tribune, said that the economy having high unemployment or a worsening jobless rate going into a midterm election are not correlated with the party holding the presidency losing seats in the first midterm election. Voters typically have been able to forgive both Democrats and Republicans high unemployment when they perceived the economy to be improving" (4). I still believe although even though it is believed these things may not be correlated, that the Democrat party will lose some seats in the midterm elections approaching. "The mistake that this town often makes is behaving as if things are static and acting as if conditions that pertain today are going to describe the conditions 11 months from today. Things can change for the better and worse" (3). There is still much debate to come and time to figure things out. Many things can still change in the upcoming months, one thing is for sure though the Democrat and Republican party will need to campaign hard for their votes.
1- The Washington Post. "GOP retirements in House may affect party's gains in November"
2- New York Times. The Caucus. "Pelosi Vows to Hold Onto Majority"
3-The New York Times. The Caucus. "Democrats Face Shifting and Perilous Political Environment"
4- http://www.startribune.com/business/80703942.html?elr=KArksUUUoDEy3LGDiO7aiU
The Democrats may have difficulties in the midterm elections if they fail to pass meaningful legislation concerning health insurance reform and re-regulation of the financial markets, two major issues on which Obama campaigned in 2008. More Americans were uninsured in 2009 than in 2008 (1) and this will weigh heavily on many who have health issues or a family to cover. The Democrats also need to pass a jobs bill that begins to put people back to work quickly. If they can show an improvement in the unemployent rate, which is currently at historically high levels,(2) they can use that to prove that their approach is helping ordinary Americans and that their leadership is effective. Issues like jobs, health care and retirement savings are personal for many Americans, and Americans typically "vote their pocketbooks." My advice would be for the Democrats to show some true leadership here, to have a stronger chance of maintaining their majorities in both houses of Congress. The Democrats also need to firmly tie the financial crisis and subsequent bailouts to the previous administration -- it was George W. Bush who signed the first bail out bill that so many far-right-wing pundits and supporters such as the so-called "Tea Partiers" now decry.
The Republicans need to distance themselves from the fringe of their party -- the "Tea Party" activists and Sarah Palin supporters who cannot win independent votes. They also need to prove to Americans -- and especially independent voters -- that they have actual ideas for change, rather than simply opposing whatever Obama and the Democrats propose. Opposition is healthy and to be expected in a two-party system, but cannot be the sole basis for governing. Ideas and solutions must be forthcoming from the GOP or they will not be seen as fit to lead during this difficult time.
I predict some House seats will flip in both directions, but that the Democrats will maintain their majority provided they pass the key legislation I said above. The Senate will stay closely divided and therefore largely dysfunctional unless they decide to pass key legislation using reconciliation as the GOP frequently did under Bush.
(1)
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/74919-poll-more-uninsured-in-2009-than-2008
(2)
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
With the growing dissatisfaction of today’s government, the Democrats face a tough midterm election. The lack of success concerning the new health care bill is a major hurdle for the Democrats, incumbents in particular (3). Although elections are still ten months away, political analysts believe if they were held today, many incumbents including Harry Reid and Christopher J. Dodd would be replaced (3). In order to eliminate these issues, Democrats need to successfully pass a heath care bill, and boost up the suffering economy. The failure to make a significant change in the economy is suspected to hurt the Democrats in the midterm elections (4).
Also, there are several Democrats that have chosen to retire, and therefore not run in the midterm elections (2). As we learned in class, the incumbents generally have an advantage because they already have experience, and I believe the combination of these retirements and the Democrats failure to pass legislation will be shown in the midterm elections. Many Republicans have also decided to retire for the midterm elections, more than the Democrats in fact, but I do not believe this will hurt them as much as it will hurt the Democrats (2).
I think the most beneficial thing the Democrats can do to help prevent a loss at the midterm elections is simply passing a health care bill. The public is sick of hearing about Congress’s inability to compromise, and I think if the Democrats do not act quickly the consequences will be a loss of seats. As for the Republicans, I think they can benefit by just drawing more voter attention to this. The bomb scare on Christmas also does not help portray the current government in a positive light and I believe this could also be used to the Republican’s advantage.
I predict history will repeat itself and the Democrats will lose seat in Congress. However, whether the majority will switch parties I am not sure on and believe it is too early to tell. I think the looming deadline of the midterm elections will help Democrats follow the urges also given by President Obama to pass legislation.
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
3. http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-midterm1-2010jan01,0,453106.story
4. http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/10/05/midterm_elections_on_obama_agenda/
After the Democrats sweeping victory in 2008, the upcoming midterm election of 2010 looks like the Democrats have their feet knocked out from under them. History tells us that the majority power always loses a chunk of it’s seats during the midterm elections (4), and with projections of losses for the Democrats in the upwards of 20-25 seats, it seems clear that the Democrats are going to lose their 60 vote filibuster (1). Especially considering that the high voter dissatisfaction toward Democratic incumbents over things like the financial industry bailout (1), the stimulus package and health-care reform (2), as well as the continuing high unemployment numbers (4). If we look back to President Eisenhower’s midterm election of 1958, when unemployment numbers had risen from 4.3 to 7.5 percent, we see that Eisenhower’s party lost an unprecedented 47 seats, it looks like the Democrats could be facing a huge loss (4).
Aside from the fact that Democrats will already be fighting an uphill battle, when you look at the history of past elections, the Democrats are also facing a large amount of difficulties. To start, Democrats are faced with a string of retirements, which means they’ll lose some of their incumbent advantages (2), with the additional possibility that more lawmakers could follow in their footsteps (3). Democrats also face rising unemployment and the effect it has on the opinions of voters (1). While political scientists such as Seth Masket hold that unemployment doesn’t seem to have an effect on voters, national pollsters disagree, saying “unemployment now shapes the views of the economy for voters nationwide” (4). Another issue is the controversial healthcare debate. Whether the Democrats get healthcare passed while be a key issue in the midterm elections. If the Democrats can get it passed chances are that Americans will accept it more and perhaps begin to feel it’s benefits (2), giving the Democrats a crucial point to make during their campaigns about improving American lives. If the Democrats can’t get healthcare bill passed they’ll be showing their opponents their weak point, that the Democrats just wasted a lot of government time and money in a bill that will never be passed.
My advice to the Democrats? Get healthcare passed. The Democrats need to prove to the American people that they are getting things done that that they are needed in Congress to continue to make things happen for the American people. What the Democrats need to do is break the Healthcare Bill done into two parts. Part One is the basics they need to get it working, without the controversial parts written in (like whether to pay for abortions or not). Breaking in the bill in half would hopefully mean that Democrats could convince more Republicans to join their cause and get the thing past before the midterm elections. That way Democrats can bring to the table that they got Healthcare passed (started) and have a point that they need to be re-elected to that they can continue to “fight the good fight” in round two of Healthcare Reform.
Another bit of advice for Democrats, add in jobs. With Congress supremely forced on Healthcare Reform someone needs to add in a clause that adds jobs to the American market, like adding sectors for Healthcare and spreading the branches of such a sector across America. Cutting down on unemployment would help lighten the load on Democrats, or at least the sign of progress could be enough to help Democrats (4). By adding a spin on the economy Democrats can kill two birds with one stone, removing the obstacle of high unemployment and controversial healthcare reform (1), by removing the image of “under this party unemployment when up and nothing got done in Congress because they were so focused on healthcare” and turning it into “the party that lowered unemployment left by the previous administration and fixed healthcare”. Or at the very least pursue some course of action to stimulate new hiring (4).
On the other side of the coin is Republicans. My advice to Republicans to gain seats would be to not do anything that sheds a negative light on Republicans. Polls show that even though voters are losing faith with Democrats, it doesn’t mean that they’re necessarily moving toward Republicans (2). And as Republicans haven’t done a lot to convince voters that they’re better than the Democrats they’ll need to make some sort of gesture to convince voters to vote for them (2). Considering that Republicans are also facing a greater number of retirements than Democrats (14 GOP House Members to 11 Democrats) the Republicans have an equal amount of disadvantage when it comes to votes for incumbents (2). What Republicans need to do is to make sure that the Democrats end up looking like they have just wasted a lot of government time and money with Healthcare Reform, so that the power will be shifted toward the “Responsible Republicans” so that more time and money isn’t wasted. Republicans should also try to prove that the Democrats are out of touch with voters which is why healthcare reform has received such low popularity and shoot to gain more independent voters (1).
My prediction is that more lawmakers are going to announce their retirement, and cause both parties to have to up their political campaigns. If healthcare is passed before the midterms I think that the Democrats will lose their filibuster but will still hold a slight majority at least one of the Houses. If Healthcare doesn’t get passed, the new lawmakers will not have too much opposition to it as they learn what’s in the bill (2). Depending on whether or not Democrats can use their filibuster to pass the Healthcare Bill will decide how many seats they’ll lose. Unemployment will also play a large role in the campaigns, and voters will pick whichever candidate offers them a better path towards lowering unemployment. Ultimately, Democrats will lose seats but not as many as either party expected.
The midterm elections will hand both parties tough campaigns, especially in open seat districts (3), and both Democrats and Republicans face the difficultly of filling the seats of retirees (2). In the end the elections will be determined on whether or not Healthcare gets passed. If it does Democrats will have an advantage, and if not Republicans will have yet another advantage. One thing in is certain however, this will be a political battle of epic proportions.
[1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
[2] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126279417891718047.html
[3] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
[4] http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/30/us/politics/30caucus.html
In my opinion, the upcoming midterm elections will not bring a political upheaval as is touched on in the two provided articles. Although Republicans have made gains, such as the fact that they may have the majority of governorships in the country, I do not believe that they will make win a vast chunk of congressional seats (1). The reason being that Republican wins depend on voter dissatisfaction with Democrats. This is not to say that there aren't areas where there will be turnover. Politicans like Christopher Dodd, Byron Dorgan, and Bill Ritter are all incumbents who have decided not to run for re-election, forseeing the inevitable win by Republicans (1). However, I don't think that there is enough dissatisfaction about Democrats to prompt turnover nation-wide. The economy seems to be improving, though the rate at which it is growing may be too slow pacify everyone (and therein allow for some Republican gains). Also, the new health care bill will probably satisfy most people. After all, the staunchest critics were always avid conservatives anyways. Moderates, which make up most of the country, seem to be for the bill. It's passing is a trophy for the Democrats to use to their advantage during the elections. Also, it should be noted that some Republicans are also retiring from office prior to midterms. Henry Brown is leaving, the fourteenth Republican to do so (2). However, analysts seem to be set in their projection of double-digit gains for Republicans. Perhaps this is because of the historic trend that the opposition party gains seats (2). Whatever happens, it will certainly be a very difficult election.
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
One of the most significant obstacles the Democrats face in the midterm elections is the resignations of many of their long-time politicians. Two of these include Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, leaving Democrats in the struggle to maintain their 60 seat supermajority (4). The supermajority the Democrats now possess has proven to be essential for passing health care legislation, otherwise the party would be at the mercy of endless Republican filibusters. The rising federal deficit and unemployment rates of the country are contributing to a decline in support for Obama, some say signaling possible double-digit losses in the House of Representatives and defeats in the Senate for Democrats (3). With the unsuccessful attempts of health care reform thus far, the Democratic party faces a huge morale obstacle if legislation on this issue is blocked or not passed (1).
To protect their majority in Congress the Democrats have some campaigning to do. They need to express to the American people their plan for the next few years, and how the same people must be in office in order to carry it out. Emphasizing the benefits of the new health care system and other programs will remind the voters of the goals of the Democratic party and the fact that the results are not immediate and take time to show effects. Especially since the public is divided on the health care issue, providing positive advertising with concrete reasons for its benefits would greatly increase public support (1).
I would advise the Republicans to focus on advertising and emphasizing the many detriments Obama and the Democratic congress have placed on our country thus far. Although midterm elections usually do not draw a significant turnout, it has been reported that conservatives have been energized by their opposition to the Obama administration’s agenda (4). By persuading these conservative voters to participate in the election, the Republicans will already have an advantage over the Democrats, whose supporters are less likely to vote since their party is in power. Also, the party needs to focus on the endangered Democratic incumbents, whose performance throughout the past year has left them with little support from their home state. These are the weak links in the Democratic congress, that if utilized, can help gain the Republican party more seats. I would also advise the Republican party to unite and work together to gain seats instead of having internal bickering. In some seats the candidates competing are from a centrist Republican group and a more conservative Republican group (2). Although Republicans want to show their strength and numbers they should be working as a team and not against each other.
With the exception of two years, the party that controls the White House has lost seats in every elections since the mid-19th century (3). I believe this will be upheld in the November midterm elections, especially given the poor performance of the President and Congress. The Democrats are facing too many obstacles with the unpopular health care reform, fragile state of the country, and many incumbents retiring to be able to maintain their supermajority of Congress. I predict they will lose a substantial number of seats, and most likely will lose their supermajority in Congress. Hopefully the balance of the Senate and House will be restored between the two parties.
1.
http://prescriptions.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/09/overhaul-success-or-not-democrats-brace-for-losses/?pagemode=print
2.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/weekinreview/10herszenhorn.html?scp=3&sq=2010%20midterm%20elections&st=cse
3.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/president/ci.Republicans+Eye+Democratic+Leaders+in+2010+Midterm+Elections.opinionPrint
4.
http://cnn.site.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=Democrats+struggle+to+hold+critical+60-seat+Senate+majority+-+CNN.com&expire=&urlID=417975937&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2010%2FPOLITICS%2F01%2F06%2Fsenate.power.balance%2Findex.html%3Firef%3Dallsearch&partnerID=211911
The upcoming midterm election this November is one of the hottest topics within politics in Washington. Control over the House is up for grabs (1), and the current Senate majority will face challenges to keep their supremacy (2). Even the least pessimistic Democrats fear sizable losses in November (3). Historically however, the first midterm election for a newly elected president has generally resulted in significant Congress losses for his party (1). In 2006, anger towards George W. Bush and the Republican Party proved to be a more powerful motivator for voters, which lead to Democrats obtaining the majority within Congress (3).
It has been predicted by numerous strategists that Democrats will lose between 20 and 25 seats in Congress (3). With this drastic change in Congress, Democrats will find it more difficult to pass legislation on issues. Even with the 60-vote majority, Democrats struggled to bring the health care bill through the Senate (2). However, it is not a “shoe-in” for Republicans to take the majority within Congress. Democrats point out that half a dozen Republican senators and about a dozen Republican House members have announced their retirement from Congress (3). Democrats will have to rely not only on their current members of Congress to not retire, but also for new Democrats will need to step up to take the place of those who did retire and run against Republican hopefuls. Also, Democrats will have to make sure that their strong supporting constituents vote, as well as stand behind the progress that health care has made within Congress.
That’s not to say that Republicans aren’t with out their own challenges. Due to their own set of retirees, the Republican Party will be defending seats in Senate in New Hampshire, Ohio and Missouri (2). But at this point, Republicans have a more motivated constituency and a greater chance of winning independent voters than in the past two elections, when compared to the Democrats (3). If Republicans want to win the most seats possible, they will have to push hard on wavering Democratic lawmakers (1). Also, Republicans will have to point out the Democrat’s inability to pass healthcare legislation in a timely fashion, as well as make comments on how slow the economy is improving.
I predict that Republicans will gain some seats within Congress. Although I am not sure which party will have the majority within the Senate and House in the end. David Axelrod, a senior advisor to President Obama said, “There’s not an election tomorrow. There’s not an election next week. There’s not an election for eleven months. The mistake that this town often makes is behaving as if things are static and acting as if the conditions that pertain today are going to describe the conditions 11 months from today. Things can change for the better and worse” (2). But there is no question that the election this November has had a significant effect on the thinking of all Democratic incumbents and potential Republican challengers as they weigh decisions about the coming year (3).
Work Cited
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
2. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/06/for-obama-a-dispiriting-reality/
3. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html
The biggest difficulty the Democrats will have is convincing the American public that their agenda can become a reality. The agenda has a lot of powerful issues that could significantly improve the country and the world that we live in (1). But with the healthcare debate nearing its sixth month and there is still no definitive bill that is near Obama’s desk the Democrats have very little to show for almost a year of having Obama in office. The economy will also be a large obstacle the Democrats will have to overcome in order to garner enough votes to maintain their majorities in both houses (2). Historically, when the economy is down the incumbents lose their positions. If the economy improves as it is expected to the Democrats might have a bit easier of a time keeping their seats.
I would advise the Democrats in Congress to get a definitive working healthcare system out for the American public to see. If nothing good comes out of this debate than the Democrats will have a very hard time convincing the public that they can really achieve the things that they promised (1). The status quo starts to look pretty good. It would also be really nice if they could get something else passed. Like cap and trade or get CTBT signed or anything. Having something to point to when you talk about how wonderful you are is a good idea, especially when your party has a filibuster proof majority. The Democrats also need party unity. The Republicans are starting to fracture and there is a lot of conflict within the party (3). If the Democrats can show a strong, united front with a reasonable, cohesive agenda they may be able to hang on to their seats.
Republicans need to exploit the fact that the Democrats aren’t getting anything done. They have been in power for almost a year with enormous majorities and they can’t get anything to pass. They also need to play up the fiscally conservative part of the platform (2). Many voters are losing trust in the Democrats because of the massive spending that has happened in the last year. With the economy still down this issue will hit even closer to home. Also, own up to the failures of the Bush administration (2). Show the public how the party has changed as of late. Many of the voters that put down Obama’s name were using their as a protest against the Republicans and the Bush administration. They also need to stop intra party fighting. The Republicans need some cohesiveness in order to strategize and effectively attack the incumbents (3). Their biggest weakness is their lack of party unity and allowing the extreme right members isolate the party from the majority of the electorate (3).
I do believe the Democrats will lose seats. This year hasn’t been spectacular enough and there hasn’t been the dramatic change that the 2008 election hinged on to motivate voters to vote for the incumbents. I do not believe that the Democrats will lose their majorities, especially if the economy improves (3). The Republicans are still trying to figure out what they want their party to look like. There are too many factions for the unity that they need to occur before midterms. Maybe the 2012 elections, but they have a lot of things to work out inside the party before the elections (3).
(1) http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/59215-pelosi-democrats-facing-toughest-midterms-ever
(2) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704842604574642440064128138.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
(3) http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/01/theres_been_enough_bipartisan.html
As the Democrats are wrestling to produce a final health care bill, they are also getting ready to lose a large number of seats in November. This is typical; the party in power normally loses seats in the midterms. Last week two Democratic senators, of North Dakota and Connecticut, announced they were retiring (1). These retirements will threaten the Democrat’s majority that has keep them free of filibusters so far and could be an early sign of rising Republican strength (1). With a tough Senate race in North Dakota, the Democrats also face serious challenges in the Nevada seat of Senate leader Harry Reid (2). At this point in time, Democrats face losing their majority in the midterm elections. 50 of the 435 House seats appear to be tossups right now, and 39 of them are currently held by Democrats (1). The Republicans need 40 seats to take back gain of the House (1). This loss will make it very difficult for the president to fulfill his promises on immigration, climate change, and other legislation (2). The pace at which President Obama is able to pass legislation will slow significantly after November.
For the Democrats to be successful, they need to appeal to the public. One way of doing this is turning the economy around in the short term and working on creating measurable increases in jobs (3). If the economic future of Americans looks brighter by November, it will be considerably easier for Democrats to be elected. In the 1994 midterms, Republicans caught the Democrats off guard and captured both the Senate and the House (4). However, the Democrats are substantially better off this year and have plenty of time to prepare. If they push hard to get as much legislation passed as possible and work on improving the job market, the Democrats will earn the public’s support and improve their chances in the midterm elections. The Republicans, on the other hand, can win by exploiting the media and appealing to conservative youth in the upcoming election. A big mistake they made in 2008 was relying too heavily on seniors to bring them to victory. The 2008 election proved that the younger voters are becoming more politically active, and if the Republicans work on gaining these votes they will have a better chance at sweeping the new seats in November.
I predict that the Democrats will lose seats in November. The American public pays the most attention to results, and if results can’t be seen, their party loyalties switch. While our economy is slowly improving, the high job loss rates will keep Democratic support low, and public distrust high.
(1) http://prescriptions.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/09/overhaul-success-or-not-democrats-brace-for-losses/?scp=2&sq=midterm%20elections&st=cse
(2) http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/06/democrat-senators-governors-election-obama
(3) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/democrats-do-not-need-to_b_404798.html
It’s pretty well agreed upon that the democrats are going to lose seats in both the House and the Senate. The question is, how much ground are they going to lose? My best advice for the Democrats (and Obama specifically) is to stop trying to be so bipartisan and just push your own legislation through. It seemed possible for a new age to be ushered in when Obama was elected, with thoughts of Republicans and Democrats working together in Congress. That, however, was a tad bit idealistic. The Republicans have made it clear that they want no part in the Democrat’s policies, and have been fairly successful in spreading popular unrest about the current administration (1). It appears as though the health care bill is going to push through (although a watered down bill it is), and once the big discussion over it blows through the Democrats really need to get their act together and push more legislation through. If they are successful in coming together over a topic that is much less controversial, then they can shake the growing image that they aren’t accomplishing anything and settle issues over their ability to govern. Another piece of advice I have for the Democrats is to remind Americans how processes like regaining strength in the economy take time Also, that Obama is not the source of our current recession, he simply inherited it. Bringing the economy back from the brink is an arduous task, and most Americans believe that the economy is beginning to recover (2).
The main difficulty the Democrats are going to have in the midterm election is shedding the negative images that many have placed upon them. With ‘socialism’ seeming more and more like a swear word than a system of government, the Democrats need to dispel thoughts that the new health care bill is an attempt at government takeover of health care, or that Obama is supposedly the first step towards a socialist America. With such thoughts being passed around, the all powerful force of public image can really work against the Democrats.
My advice for the Republicans is to, well, continue doing what they are doing. It’s not too difficult of a task to sit back and point out what the other group is doing wrong, and the Republicans are doing a good job of it. By throwing a lot of criticism at a relatively easy target (Obama) the Republicans can paint the picture that the economy could be out of the recession if not for the current administration. However, there is still about 10 months until the elections actually take place, and a lot can happen in-between
My personal prediction is that the democrats will lose seats, but maintain a slight majority. There are three big Democratic senators who are not running for reelection (3), but there have been fourteen Republicans who have made the same announcement in the House (4). I think the public is still curious to see what a Democratic controlled government can accomplish, which will lead to two more years of a Democratic majority. With that said, there are already clear signs that the political pendulum will once again swing back to the right. The Democrats just need to do as much as they can with the rope that the public is giving them.
(1) http://www.politicsdaily.com/2009/11/30/republicans-united-against-obama-unsure-about-their-own-leader/
(2) http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/economy/
(3) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
(4) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
Based on currently available information, the most likely result for the 2010 mid-term elections is that Democrats will retain control of Congress. The question is to what extent they will retain it. 41 Democrats and 21 Republicans are not even up for re-election, meaning that Democrats only need nine of the elections to retain control of the senate, in contrast with the 30 the Republicans would need to win (4). Keep in mind that Vice President Joe Biden has the tie-breaking vote in the Senate, and that both parties have the same number—19—of seats up for reelection. Even if the Republicans win a majority of the election, they will almost certainly not gain control of the Senate. The House of Representatives is in a similar boat, so we can expect the House and the Senate to behave similarly in the elections (2).
The best plausible scenario for the Republicans involves them holding all their incumbents, holding their seven open seats, and unseating vulnerable Democrats. By doing so, they could quite possibly win up to 48 seats (1). It is extremely unlikely, although it is possible, that the Democrats will gain seats in the elections.
But what exactly will happen in November? Historically, midterm elections after a President’s inauguration tend to go poorly for the President’s party (3). I would advise that Democrats campaign by presenting President Obama in a positive light. They should focus on his achievements that are popular with the public. Similarly, I believe the Republicans should focus on President Obama as well. They need to emphasize the actions of his administration with poor public appeal. These elections will likely be decided by the President’s popularity (3), so parties should try to take advantage of that. I expect that, ultimately, the Republicans will chip away a decent amount at the Democrats’ majority, but not nearly enough to turn the tables in Congress. Even changes in just a few seats, however, can significantly influence Congress’s policies, so Republicans should celebrate whatever victories they can get.
1. “Senate Shake-Up 2010,” by Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
2. “2010 House Ratings Chart,” by CQ Politics. http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house
3. “Perspectives on Winning in 2010,” by Kathleen Silvassy. CQ Politics. http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003276805
4. “2010 Senate Race Ratings,” by The Cook Political Report.
URL for my fourth source:
Okay, it seems there's a glitch.
1st Source URL: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2009111901
2nd Source URL: http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/senate/raceratings.php
There are many difficulties that the Democrats will face come midterm elections. In general the people of the United States are very displeased with the way that the government is working lately as seen by many polls that state the following shocking American viewpoints. First 45% of people at least somewhat approve of President Obama’s actions in the White House leaving about 54% to completely disapprove of him. About Congress, 45% of people would take a group of randomly selected people from the phone book over the current members of Congress to help run the country. (1) If people are making such rash statements about their viewpoints of Congress, it is hard to tell who is going to be elected because in general people cannot seem to stand the politicians that are currently serving and just want a refreshing change however they are also not to pleased with the Republicans either. The approval rating of the President is strongly going to effect the Congressional midterm election as well. People see what the President is doing and believe that his political party is the reason for those happenings so if they want to see change in government they know they need to have people to counter Obama and make things better before the current people can make things worse. I think public perception of government is going to play the biggest role in the midterm election and it will be split between and general perception of how effective the government has been and what the President’s rating looks like at the time of the election.
The advice that I have for Democrats is for them to make huge changes in the economy and for the unemployment rate by the midterm elections. While some people believe that healthcare reform may be able to turn things around for Democrats, I do not think the people of the United States all see this as the most crucial thing against something like job stability outlooks and the way the economy will go. (2) We live in a very materialistic society so things such as money seem to matter even more to people these days. While people may not know that this is their thinking behind their concern with the economy I believe overall people care about not only protecting their family but providing everything their children want and as much as they can for themselves. If people see the economy turn around I believe people will place a lot more trust into the government again for finally making a huge feat and really making a change for the better in our country after so long. When the economy changes will not be enough however, the unemployment rate will need to drop a substantial amount as well to numbers that the public will not have seen in quite a few years. Job stability has not had the best outlook to people when they see the unemployment rate numbers. As well, those who are unemployed are not likely to vote for the people who they may blame for their current situation, which is most likely the national government.
While historically the outlook has been bleak for the party that just took presidential office to maintain seats in Congress in midterm elections, this time around it appears as though the opposite party, Republicans, have their constituents uptight with them as well. It has been seen that 75% of Republicans believe the Republicans representing them in Congress are out of touch with their party’s roots and are not doing a substantial job of representing their party. (1)
The rate at which retirements are happening in the Republican Party in Congress is even greater than that for Democrats with at least 14 Republicans not seeking reelection in November. (3) The reelection seems as though it will be difficult for Republicans to win even though that goes against the traditional happenings. The Republicans will really need to focus on getting more Democrats to “crack” if they are on the fence whether or not they should resign. The more completely open seats, the more the Republicans will most likely profit in the next election because states that may see their Democratic representative cannot handle things and may turn to a Republican. Second, the Republicans will really need to focus on their image for the next election. If they can really show the progress they are making, show that they have not strayed to far towards the liberal side of things but as well stay moderate on some issues to gain more recognition from liberals they may be able to pull up more seats than the Democrats do.
Right now I find it very difficult to tell just how this election will come out. I believe that Democrats will lose some seats because their current hold on Congress is overwhelming but I do not know if Republicans will be able to pick up enough seats to do much damage to the strength of the Democrats. I think there will be many new faces that are let into Congress from both parties. While many people may not agree, I feel as though there will be a lot of underdogs and unknown politicians that will be entering Congress. It just seems as though people are unhappy with the government so they want to see new people that they do not have the view of corrupted politicians. The fact that people would rather have random people from a phone book as previously stated is an extreme stretch but I still see people going for those completely away from the norm and we will see Congress starting with a new set of politicians. Right now it is very hard to tell and the next six months of the workings of Congress may lead to a huge turnaround of how people will vote compared to now so really we just have to wait and see what happens next.
1. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration
/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543_2.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2010010602314
3. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
I don’t believe that in the upcoming midterm elections, the Republicans will bring a heroic comeback to congress for the conservatives. Even though the Republicans have taken many Governor Positions through the country, I don’t feel as though they’ll take more seats than just the few given to them by the Democrats backing down from running again for election like Christopher J. Dodd [1]. The article states that voter dissatisfaction is palpable, while I don’t see it, at least not as much as is perceived. Now more than ever it appears as though more and more people are becoming involved in politics and would like to have their voices heard. I think the main contributor to voter dissatisfaction is legislation getting passed. I think that a lot of the voter dissatisfaction against the Democrats could be mellowed out with the passing of the Health Care Reform. Not only are liberals and Democrats pushing towards the bill, but moderates tend to favor the health care reform as well; in conclusion to voter dissatisfaction, if the Democrats push the bill to get passed and are favored by a majority, they have a very good chance at keeping seats in congress. Besides the voter dissatisfaction, Republicans are opening up seats in congress as well; in fact, they’re opening up more seats in the House than Democrats [2]. However, looking back at history, the party in office tend to take significant casualties come the first midterm election for a new president, as well as Republicans still have many advantages that are believed to score some double-digit number of seats come November [2]. If the Democrats can pass the health care form by then and it’s heavily favored, I think the Democrats can hold their heads up high with good outlooks for midterms.
[1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
[2] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
With the 2010 Midterm elections fast approaching, the tension is growing in the democratic congress. With 3 of the most senior democrats retiring (Sen. Chris Dodd-CT, Sen. Byron L. Dorgan-ND, and Gov. Tom Ritter-CO) the democrats face more and more of a crisis in November. Even though 15 house republicans are retiring after this congress which may soften the blow just a bit, the democratic faces the economy blues, cause the economy is the #1 topic for most Americans. If the economy doesn’t turnaround and unemployment doesn’t start dropping quickly they won’t have to worry about reelection cause it won’t happen. The Economy is the major problem and with the already unpopular congress, not seemingly focusing enough attention on the economy, in most peoples eyes, then they face a major problem. My advice for the democrats to protect their majority is to focus more on the economy or at the very least make it at seem look like your trying. Americans look more at results than anything else, and if they don’t show results they won’t get re-elected. The republicans, to do the most damage, need to show the current congresses inability to pass legislation on the economy rather than focusing on a health care bill that is overall unpopular. In every mid-term election since 1870, only three times did the presidents party actually add seats in the house so that is already hard to do, and only 10 times since 1870 has the senate gained seats. Even very popular presidents such as, FDR, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton have lost seats in the mid-term election, so it’s a very popular thing, especially since 1970, to have a different party in power in congress, than in the white house. My prediction with, quite a few Republicans retiring, and a fewer amounts of democrats, will soften the blow just a bit but the Republicans will gain 26 seats in the house (like the ’82 Midterm election) and 9 in the senate (like the ‘94 mid-term election). It will be interesting to see if the economy turns around enough for the democrats but with unemployment still projected above 9% in November, it seems more and more likely that it will be a republican landslide.
1 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1738236/posts
2 http://www.gallup.com/poll/24493/election-polls-accuracy-record-midterm-congressional-elections.aspx
3 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
4 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
The Democrats have a typical mountain to climb in this year’s upcoming 2010 midterm elections. According to The Washington Post, “The first midterm elections for a new president are traditionally marked by significant House losses for his party” [1]. This year, Democrats will also need to fight to keep a filibuster-proof 60-seat hold on the Senate [2]. Current difficulties that the Democrats will face at the 2010 midterm elections are fairly straightforward. Most obvious, if the Democrats fail to produce satisfactory health care legislation, they cannot claim a success and Republicans will deem it a failure. Also, because the Democrats control the presidency and the majority of Congress, any disapproval that the American people have of American policy will be blamed on the government and therefore on the Democrats. As more Democrats announce their choice not to run for reelection, the preconceived notion that these Democrats knew they did not stand a chance for reelection is “supported” by this “evidence.”
If I were to advise the Democrats on how to protect their majority in Congress, I would suggest that they continue to play by the Kindergarten rules. Society supports those who support the society. Therefore, I would argue that the best way to maintain a majority control in Congress in the midterm elections is to work to do what the people voted the Democrats to do, mainly to pass health care legislation. The passage of health care legislation is key: the media, Democrats and President have made it very clear that health care is this session’s top priority. To fail to produce results on a top priority issue would translate into a failure to the American public. No one wants a failed attempt to continue. Therefore, the public would probably elect Republicans to try a different direction. However, if the Democrats manage to pass reasonable health care legislation with substantial time before the midterm elections, it would be logical to conclude that the American people would show their support in the voting booths.
However, if I were to advise the Republicans on how to gain seats in Congress at these upcoming midterm elections, I would tell them to focus on unfulfilled Democratic promises. I would specifically focus on the health care legislation as that is what most Americans know is happening on Capitol Hill. I would focus on a factual timeline while trying to be cordial when pointing out failures. Failures grab the American attention and effect votes – still, Americans dislike a negative campaign [3]. If Republicans were to present the facts, such as the Democrats failed to pass health care legislation before Christmas as once assured, they would build their argument that the Democrats did not fulfill their promises while still holding a clean and cordial campaign [4].
My predictions are pretty typical: I agree with the political scientists who say that the Democrats will lose seats, especially among the House seats [2]. The House has more seats “up for grabs” – the American people can be more vocal about their opinions there rather than in the Senate. However, I do think that the Democrats will suffer losses in the Senate as well - to what degree, I’m uncertain. I don’t think that the American public is as extremely-super dissatisfied with the government as the media portrays it to be. President Obama’s approval ratings have been fairly typical – roughly half of the nation approves of the President’s work while the other half disapproves [5]. Overall, I think that the Republicans will make some gains in this year’s midterm elections.
1) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
2) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
3) Our book.
4) http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-senate-healthcare20-2009dec20,0,1299246.story
5) http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php
Many analysts think that the democrats will face the challenge of voter discontentment over seeming stagnation in the legislature. While Obama rode in on a wave of popular support and ebullience, it has since faded into desuetude. Combined with the announced retirement of three preeminent leaders, Dodd, Dorgan, and Ritter, the Democrats hope that they will be more than detritus in the right corner of the house and senate floors after this midterm election. (1) However, I don’t know if I totally agree with this diagnosis. The Post article goes on too describe numerous Republican schisms. 18 Republicans have announced their own retirements, and while the article didn’t actually describe how many the democrats announced, that is a lot. (1) Furthermore, the Republicans image has been extremely tarnished, and making a recovery for them will be difficult. (2) Furthermore, the climate of our country may be considerably different eight months from now. Right now, voters are frustrated that unemployment is high, the economy is suffering and the health care debate has made the political climate in the late 60s nostalgic. (3) my advice to the Republicans would be to embrace their evilness and reach out to their hardcore voters. My advice to the Democrats would be to embrace their liberal awesomeness and stop trying to compromise on healthcare to pass a public option that will save the lives of millions of poor potential voters so that they are alive to vote for them.
(1) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
(2) http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/midterms
(3) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
Joe P.:
I enjoyed reading Ben’s blog. I am in very much agreement with him. It will be very difficult for the Democratic Party to regain power in Congress. I liked how Ben stated, “this is a country that works faster than any other nation in the world and people want results – whether or not they are feasible does not matter.” When people rip on the President, they usually do no realize what problems he actually faces. It is impossible to fix all of our domestic problems in a matter of a year or two, let alone work with other world leaders to fix international problems. People should treat our President with respect rather than thinking of him as a God. Some may say that President Obama brought himself into the situation he is in with all of the promises he made during his campaign. I feel that in order to win the presidency in our country, presidential nominations need to make promises to the American public. This may result in extending the truth or making the job sound uncomplicated. Is this another negative side of our political campaign process? I think so. People need to remember that our government is a three-branch government and that the President is not able to do everything he wishes.
As we all know the economic and health care situations are not going well. I do not feel that the Democrats will lose a significant amount of votes to the Republican Party. Instead, I believe the Democratic Party will lose the support and power they held in the 2008 presidential campaign. Meaning, the people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 may not vote in the 2010 elections. Obama was able to get a lot of people who had not been registered to vote … to vote in 2008. According to the Washington Post, “since the start of the year, 202,000 people have registered to vote in Virginia. Of those, 64 percent are younger than 35, a demographic Obama expects to win handily.” (1) Moreover, “Virginia has added nearly a quarter-million registered voters since the 2004 elections, and about half of that growth came from increasingly Democratic Northern Virginia.” (1) I think these people are still in favor of Obama but are less willing to show up at the polls in 2010. Thus, the Democratic Party losing a significant amount of votes to their own party and the power shifting to the Republican Party. In addition, I think President Obama’s decision to send in 30,000 more troops into Afghanistan will make an impression on Independent voters. I recommend the Democratic Party (especially President Obama) encouraging everyone who gave him support in 2008 to give the Democratic Party that same support in 2010. He needs to influence newly registered voters that power in the executive branch is just as important in the legislative branch. For his plans to positively affect his supporters, they need to vote for his party in 2010.
In addition, I think it is important for the Democratic Party to use their youth support. President Obama had a significant number of young voters vote for him. It is important to target these same voters through means of technology used by the youth. For example: facebook, youtube, text messaging, etc. According to mocoNews.net, “In the final month leading up to the election, the Obama campaign used mobile advertising to target the youth demographic and voters in key battleground states.” (2) The Democratic Party needs to take advantage of their youth support and carry that into 2010.
Joe continued...
For the Republican Party to regain power in Congress it is important for them to point out President Obama’s flaws in office. According to the Washington Times, “Top Republicans said that President Obama has been distracted from the terrorism threat against the United States by his ambitious domestic agenda — health care, climate change, the economy — and one former Bush official said the president has let down the national intelligence community.” (3) It is important for the GOP to connect this to the American public. As I said early, it is very hard for Presidents to fix all of our country’s problems in a matter of two short years. Many people do not realize this and the Republican Party has a wide open door to capitalize. They can easily make many accusations to the Democratic Party. They need to “blow caution to the wind” and go into the 2010 elections very blunt. Like Dan Larson stated, the 2010 elections are fairly far away. I think the mid-term elections are going to be closer than most people are expecting.
Citations:
1. [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/17/AR2008081702592.html?sid=ST2008081801019&s_pos ]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/17/AR2008081702592.html?sid=ST2008081801019&s_pos=
2. [ http://moconews.net/article/419-obama-used-mobile-advertising-to-target-youth-and-voters-in-key-battleg/ ]http://moconews.net/article/419-obama-used-mobile-advertising-to-target-youth-and-voters-in-key-battleg/
3. [ http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/04/security-pushed-aside-gop-says/?source=newsletter_must-read-stories-today_photo_feature ]http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/04/security-pushed-aside-gop-says/?source=newsletter_must-read-stories-today_photo_feature
The November midterm elections are going to be a reflection on how Americans see the Obama presidency thus far. The people who see his presidency in a positive light are more likely to keep the current presidents party in office, while if the people are dissatisfied with the party in power, they will vote the other direction. One difficulty each party will have is the amount of retiring incumbents, on each side(1,2). The Democrats have 10 incumbent congressmen who are not going to run for reelection in the midterm elections, while the Republicans have 14 congressmen who are retiring. I think the Democrats will keep the majority in congress, but it will not be as solidly in control. The faith in the Democratic Party has been shaken by the inability to get a large amount of the legislature passed that they promised in the 2008 election, such as healthcare reform.
In order for the Democrats to remain in power, they have to be able to convince the voters that they are actually making progress on the promises they made in the last election. They have to make progress on the public healthcare option that they promised. They have to make progress on ending the foreign wars, and they have to make progress in bolstering the strength of the economy.
If the Republicans want to take the power away from the Democrats, they have to convince the voters that a public healthcare option is NOT the best option for them. They also have to convince the voters that stimulus packages, bailouts, and handouts are not the correct way to go about fixing the economic mess. The Republicans have a much more challenging road however, because they have more incumbents retiring, and they are already the minority, so they have to take voters from the Democratic side (1).
1.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
As the midterm elections of Obama’s presidency approach, there will definitely be evidence of whether American citizens support the direction in which Obama and the Democrats are moving our country. I feel that the results will be a stronger indicator of Congress’ level of approval than Obama’s: many citizens are frustrated with congress’ inability to pass legislation, and not necessarily with the President. I also think that regardless of the results, it won’t be too negative of a reflection on Obama as midterm elections usually show a swing in favor of the other party (during a President’s first term) (1).
Both parties face an unusually high numbers of open elections, as many congressmen announce their retirement (2). This provides a large window of opportunity for either party to gain a majority in congress (1). The democrats may be able to take advantage of the fact that Republicans are being split by moderate and more conservative factions in some seats (3). If voters are being divided throughout the primary season, as is expected in Chicago, the democratic candidate has the opportunity to strengthen their own support and publicize their image (3). The Democrats should focus on publicizing their successes over the last two years, and reinvigorating the “yes we can” attitude of Obama’s campaign. They should also try to increase voter participation, as it is usually much lower at midterm elections (1). This gives Republicans, who have a more consistent voting base, the advantage. The main challenge for the Democrats is overcoming simple statistics; that the opposing party generally has the advantage in midterm elections (3).
To be successful, the Republican Party really has to decide what direction they want to take- a continued moderate movement, or a reestablishment of conservative principles (2). In states with a rising anti-liberal sentiment, the Republicans could benefit dramatically from moving more right (1). However, this could be a risky move in states that are exceedingly moderate (1). I think that establishing a strong party agenda and emphasizing the ineffectiveness of congress in recent months will help advance the Republicans next November.
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/04/AR2010010403313.html
2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/06/AR2010010602543.html?hpid=topnews
3. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/weekinreview/10herszenhorn.html?ref=politics
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